$450 live MTT. 55 players left out of 349 starting, top 34 pay. Hero sitting on 225k at 3k/6k/6k ante. Hero sat down at the table recently and tripled up AK vs Q10 vs 77 all-in preflop. Only other hand Hero has shown down Hero floated a 1/5 sized flop c-bet with Khi on a Qhi board, checked through on an Ace turn, and was paid off on a river bet when Hero hit broadway. Image likely a little on the LAG side of things.

Villain is a 30yo black male with around 200k in his stack. Only hand of note I've seen him play is when he went call/call/check back river with a set of 7s on 567xx and said, "You've always got 89 there today" after checking back river to the big stack at the table.

The hand:

Hero looks down at QQ UTG and raises to 13,000. Villain calls in the BB.

(35,000) Flop 873ss. Villain donk bets 6,000. Hero raises to 22,000, Villain calls.

(79,000) Turn 10x. Villain checks, Hero bets 32,000, Villain calls.

(143,000) River Kx. Villain checks, Hero ?

After Villain checked, Villain, who sat directly to Hero's right, stared Hero down for a full minute as Hero deliberated his action. Clear value spot on the river? If so, how much should Hero bet? Can Hero comfortably bet/fold to a river check/jam?

For me this is a clear check back especially in a situation like this, where you are under ICM pressure. There is only a little over a pot sized bet left. If you jam, you are not getting called by worse, and if you bet small, you reopen the betting, which is definitely not something, you want to do. Two bets went in already (technically 3 since you raised the flop, but his donk was very small), and this is enough for a one pair hand on this board. He might still have something as strong as a flopped flush, and you dont even have an overpair any more. This mean, that now you sometimes lose to hands with the naked K of spades or maybe K8. And it also makes it even more difficult for him to still call you with hands like A8, because you could have a K as well. So its a card, which makes bluffing easier but makes it more difficult to bet for value with a hand like QQ.

There are no flushes possible. Two spades on the flop, turn non-spade, river non-spade.

I wouldn't worry about a c/r. Even if villain has KX I doubt he would c/r unless it is specifically the few combos of K8s, K7s, or K3s that he called the turn with.

But the reason not to bet the river for value is that there are a lot of KX hands that villain can have that won't fold and you just lose chips. And because the K hit the river villain may fold his small pair anyway because you can have a lot of Kx flush draw combos like AK/KQ/KJ/K9/K8/K7 not to mention that you can have a lot of Tx hands. And villain has MUTB syndrome.

Having said that if you bet medium/small on the river and villain c/r then its an auto fold given villain's known tendencies.

Ok thats a bit better then, but I still prefer checking back, because the K is an overcard to your QQ. And I dont like bet-folding, when you only have a little over a pot sized bet left. The problem is, that if you make a substantial bet, then you have more than half your stack in the middle, and I dont want to put in that much only to fold a hand with showdown value to a shove. Then you can bet really small like 20% pot, but that does not generate much value anyway, and if he jam, now maybe you induced it. I think, the idea of bet-folding with so little stack left behind rely to much on an assumption, that the opponent would never bluff or overplay a worse hand like a T. And for that reason I would only bet the river as a bluff or with hands, I was willing to stack off.

Hero tanked for a solid minute, minute and a half before reluctantly checking back. Villain flipped over 109o for second pair. Felt like a small value bet may have been missed.

It's a tough spot. Definitely depends how often you think villain will call with second pair there vs. just fold because of the king. And whether or not villain will check-raise bluff if you make a small bet. If he won't, I don't mind going for a little value.

That said, in practice, and knowing that this villain already checked back a really strong hand, I do feel like I might just think the pot is big enough as it is and I'm happy to show it down. Opening up a chance to lose the pot or put money in bad doesn't seem worth it.

But looking at the hand as a whole: You can probably raise bigger on the flop. You're giving him almost 4:1 here (16k to play for 63k) and you want to make it difficult on him with a flush draw, straight draw, or top pair. Even 30k makes it less than 3:1, and I might even go up to 36k.

I think you can bet bigger on the turn too, half-pot or maybe even more. You have a very good hand.

If you do those things then I'm much more comfortable checking back the river as the pot will be even bigger and I'm happier to show it down.

Aside: You're not really as close to the bubble as it looks. I usually start looking at the bubble with around 15% of the number of players in the money to bust before the money is reached, maybe a little more. So probably around 40 players left I'd start considering the bubble as a factor.

That is a little results oriented. T9 makes sense, because it was an OESD on the flop, but all in all TX does not make up a big part of his range. He also have KX, 8X and busted draws. 8X might fold, unless you go really small, you lose to KX, and busted draws might raise as a bluff. So against his entire range a bet-fold line is most likely losing you chips.

Thanks for the feedback. I've been assessing my game lately and finding spots to bet/fold river to maximize value is something I've been looking a lot at. It appears this spot was a solid check back.

What about on a blank river? Then is it a bet small/evaluate? Or bet closer to half pot?

He only have around a pot sized bet left, so if you want to bet-fold, you need to go pretty small. If you bet half pot, you will be getting 5:1, if he jam, which mean, you are committed, but you are also beat. Such spots are extremely awkward, and I prefer to not create them in the first place. So on a complete blank maybe bet something like 42.000. There are not many complete blanks in the deck though. An A or K brings an overcard, a J, 9 or 6 puts a 1-liner to a straight, a 5 or 4 complete further straightdraws, and a T, 8, 7 or 3 will pair the board. The only real blank is a 2. Maybe we can also bet a 7 or 3, because its quite unlikely, either player have these cards, and they make us beat some other two pair. And of course we can bet a Q, because it gives us top set.

Nath is spot-on here. The upside to ~30K more chips isn't with the risk of taking down 145K chips safely, esp this late in the MTT.

You now have almost or just over 300K chips at 6/6/3. 50 BBs is huge as the bubble approaches and gives you better utility to abuse it.