$365 WSOPC Ring event #1 at Horseshoe Baltimore. over 3,600 entries and now down to 152 players on Day Two. Just reached a payout bump at 153 remaining, to $1,060. Next payout bump at 99th place, to $1,223.

Blinds 4,000/8,000 with 1,000 ante. Hero has ~ 240,000 with AKo in BB.

UTG open shoves 160,000. He just moved to this table a few orbits earlier, is MAWG seems TAG. Saw him open UTG for 2.25 BBs and fold to a shove by stack approx same size as his. A few hands before this one, he 3! all-in for 75,000 against the table chip leader who had opened in the cutoff and range was pretty wide. Chip leader called with 44, MAWG has 55 and doubles thru.

Action folds to hero, in BB. Is this a spot to risk 2/3 of stack to call with big slick, or let him have it as I have no fold equity and still 29 BBs deep after the hand?

9-handed, would prob range QQ-88, AK, discounting AA-KK a lot w.13 of overlay

Villain as described I think is more likely to open a big pair 16k Than to push 20 BB's. With such a long road to the next pay bump, it's not a terrible time to take a flip for a big pot against a smaller pair. He can have AK here. I think he has AQ or less here as often as he has AA or KK. I would call.

Seemed like a lot to risk on a likely coin flip when I'm deep enough to play my normal game for awhile.

Well, tournament equity certainly plays a part in your decision, imo. But from a straight cEV analysis, it depends what your def of a coinflip is, even if you are 55/45 against, there is still .13 addl to pay off from the current pot.

How do you calc .13 here?

181/160

It might actually be more, if you are calling 152 instead of 160

OP: What do you think V does with AQ/AJ here? I'm really leaning towards a call if you can at least include AQ in his range.

It is a lot and in general I would advise avoiding flips without a dominate chip stack. There are some factors that would get me to call: 1) I think there is a good chance you are dominating here. 2) With under 30 bb's you are not far from push/fold poker and you could soon find yourself forced to get a lot of chips in with worse than this. 3) There is a long way to go to get to the next pay bump, let alone the big money. You are not going to check-fold your way there. You will have to take some chances and win some flips. This is a good enough spot to take one.

Hard to answer... he hasn't been at this table very long.

this just cant be a fold - not enough info to range him to pairs alone , AJs+ would be reasonable to see. KK + extremely unlikely with blockers and sizing. Long way until next pay jump

TAG MAWG shoves 20bb UTG? 77-JJ? AK? I'm trying to remember the last time I saw this and what they revealed..... got nothing. I think it's a tight fold down to about 12-15 bbs, then calling.

Wow. I think I am this MAWG TAG player described in this post. I ended up busting out in 75th place.
So weird to be talked about in a thread on 2+2

So then what did you have?

Don't see how hero folds

I had QQ.
Was not at table long but long enough to know that there was a lot of speculation type players.

QQ seems spot on
@dropnloads - Would you have 99 or AQ in your open shove UTG range here?

This is true and often overlooked.

If you have a large edge (for example you're accumulating chips without significant risk, stealing and restealing without seeing many flops, or playing slightly deeper but winning a high % of cbets against fitfold types) then there's quite a large opportunity cost in taking a flip for an amount that (if you lose the flip) makes it no longer possible to r/f or perhaps 3b/f. I can remember taking quite a few occasions falling out of a sweet zone when I lost the flip, despite it being mathematically correct for that single hand.

With a dominant stack you're (by definition) going to retain a similar stack utility if you lose the flip, so you should take every 50/50 spot and take the blinds/antes as EV profit.