Missed value by not betting river with AA - MTT Poker Strategy

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Missed value by not betting river with AA

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11-21-2014 , 10:17 PM

petesgotaces

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 1,733

Hey,

Would you normally shove the river here or bet half your stack? How bad is this to not bet the river here?

Opponent is a constant limper with 29% VPIP and 10% PFR.

petesgotaces

Poker Stars, $5 Buy-in (250/500 blinds, 60 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #32842022

MP2: 20,755 (41.5 bb)
Hero (MP3): 15,108 (30.2 bb)
CO: 9,461 (18.9 bb)
BTN: 8,928 (17.9 bb)
SB: 4,941 (9.9 bb)
BB: 13,634 (27.3 bb)
UTG+2: 9,676 (19.4 bb)
MP1: 27,059 (54.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A

UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls 500, MP2 folds, Hero raises to 1,725, 4 folds, MP1 calls 1,225

Flop: (4,680) K

(2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets 1,825, MP1 calls 1,825

Turn: (8,330) Q

(2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets 3,250, MP1 calls 3,250

River: (14,830) 5

(2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks

Spoiler:

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

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11-22-2014 , 03:41 AM

wowsooooted

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 5,090

I think checking back is fine, that is a bad run out for AA, f draw and KQ gets there.. we should check back in case he is slow playing a flush or 2p in theory KJ or KT should not be calling the 3rd barrel any way

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11-22-2014 , 04:17 AM

juggle5344

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 548

I don't like raising here unless you can call a shove or think he will bluff shove.

However, in practice, I usually just triple barrel these Aces at 30 bb and hope for the best. I mean how bad can it be? You've got the best hand and the guy who's calling you has god knows what and he'll sometimes be calling you with god knows what.

Sorry this is very unmathematical. But when I've got aces at 30 bb, all the money goes in. A delayed shove, I like to call.

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11-22-2014 , 06:19 AM

DjHitzz

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 2,215

Nh, wp.

If the FD didn't get there, then I would triple barrel vs this whale.

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11-22-2014 , 07:45 AM

CrunkMonkey

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 1,304

in general, I'd be sizing bigger everywhere postflop.

As played, not shoving the river seems criminal, you've got 8k behind into 14k so you're laying him great odds and tbh, constant limper guy doesn't care about that, if he's got a K he's never ever ever folding. Unless I'd seen him do it before, I would never give a guy like this credit for being able to check a hand that beats us twice....ever

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11-22-2014 , 07:24 PM

Dragons_Egg

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 4,861

Quote:

Originally Posted by wowsooooted

Agree, but i don't think you should expect an opponent playing 29/10 to be making plays based on whats theoretically correct.

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11-22-2014 , 07:57 PM

HUHandEH

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 5,458

more OTF, and sometimes they call a jam OTT too.

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