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Math of overbet otr with nuts

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11-13-2012 , 03:34 PM

billi_bons_1

stranger

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 6

Average stack size ~35bb, BB was very active running 40/30/0 for 50 hands, probably, partly due to his stack size and few short stacks on the table

(125/250 blinds, 30 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

CO: 2,268 (9.1 bb)
BTN: 8,898 (35.6 bb)
SB: 6,335 (25.3 bb)
BB: 21,485 (85.9 bb)
MP1: 2,092 (8.4 bb)
Hero (MP2): 9,990 (40 bb)
MP3: 6,100 (24.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8

MP1 folds, Hero raises to 500, 4 folds, BB calls 250

Flop: (1,335) 7

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 450, BB calls 450

Turn: (2,235) 5

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 1,300, BB calls 1,300

River: (4,835) 3

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 7,710 and is all-in

sizing otf and ott pretty standard

My question is what do you think on the long term profitability of such bets otr? Wouldn't it be more profitable for us probability weighted if he calls more often, say 2.2k bet? What boards do you think are best suitable for such overbets?

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11-13-2012 , 04:04 PM

tboneparte

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 3,378

666 on flop, 2222 on river

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11-13-2012 , 04:55 PM

dereds

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 16,782

I don't think he can call 3.5x less frequently to make 2.2x better than jamming

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11-13-2012 , 05:12 PM

Elephants_pride

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 5,043

Shoving is ok, just make sure villain hates you.

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11-13-2012 , 05:16 PM

TB27

journeyman

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 215

Given action he's likely on a busted draw and is not calling anything. If he had a set, arguably the only hand that could call, the board is so drawy that you'd know about it by now.

2200 might induce a hopeless bluff shove on his part but you'd need more than 50 hands of info to think this line would work.

On the other hand, this feels like the perfect type of board shove. Could look like you're the one who missed a draw and is trying steal it. Ideally, there'd be high cards on it though. If you're in V's spot is harder to convince yourself your pair of tens is good bluff catching than your pair of As, Ks, or even Qs.

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11-13-2012 , 05:21 PM

Gadarene

bussing tammates

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 83,008

Quote:

Originally Posted by tboneparte

666 on flop, 2222 on river

agree that flop sizing should be bigger, 560 at least

river is fine

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11-13-2012 , 05:42 PM

pablito_21

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,872

Little bigger otf. As played on the river shove is best vs someone good but vs mediocre regs and fish a regular valuebet is probably better.

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11-13-2012 , 06:22 PM

intclock

veteran

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 2,666

agree with more on flop (due to flush draw on board)

also agree that on river we rep missed fd by shoving, but no high cards on board is problem. it means we also rep overpairs and sets, making villain less likely to hero call his one pair and two pair hands. probably bet around half pot again on the river.

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11-14-2012 , 02:16 AM

gregz41

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 8,609

OP, his calling down range is not different when you bet 60% OTF compared to 33% Plus we get more in for future streets at a better price without requiring an overbet on the river. And finally, to those of us with more brain cells, change in sizing is usually a huge indicator in big value hands!

Last edited by gregz41; 11-14-2012 at 02:20 AM. Reason: He runs 40/30 ffs!

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11-14-2012 , 02:20 AM

#10

gregz41

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 8,609

You can say your flop sizing is standard all you want. It's a trend that a lot of players have copied and haven't really asked themselves why they are doing it. You are betting a soaking wet board!!!! More hands hit wet boards therefor you get called more often!

But what do I care, keep failing to get the nuts in with 35bb in 3 streets because "it's standard".

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11-14-2012 , 06:57 AM

#11

Finnera

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 1,621

agree fully with gregz here. a small cbet is good on sahara dry boards, but not this one

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11-14-2012 , 09:07 AM

#12

Keeper1125

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 2,913

flop sizing is truly awful

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11-14-2012 , 09:41 AM

#13

furo

deviation of equilibrium

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 29,639

flop is awful, river is fine

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11-14-2012 , 12:53 PM

#14

AllorNuffink

banned

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 303

Lol Gregz said it all there, with bigger flop sizing u can bet around 1/2 pot ott to set up a nice pot sized river jam - sorted!

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11-15-2012 , 03:39 AM

#15

billi_bons_1

stranger

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 6

Quote:

Originally Posted by gregz41

Yeh, agree that bigger flop sizing can decide the problem of this spot, and I would just need only pot size bet otr to gii

Quote:

Originally Posted by TB27

On the other hand, this feels like the perfect type of board shove. Could look like you're the one who missed a draw and is trying steal it. Ideally, there'd be high cards on it though. If you're in V's spot is harder to convince yourself your pair of tens is good bluff catching than your pair of As, Ks, or even Qs.

Mostly agree.

As it played, I had following points in mind justifying my overbet:
-Given hand action, my hand definitely loooks like missed draw
-Villain stack size allow him to call, and he still will have more than an average stake
-Villain running hot and could decide to make that hero call

I think that drawy boards with overcards (As,Ks) would be even more optimal to overbet: overcard hit his range; he might perceive that decent reg wouldn't ever jam with his sets or overpairs on such drawy board

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11-15-2012 , 08:41 AM

#16

Finnera

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 1,621

overbetting is another story, here its not needed since u can get the stack by just adjusting ur other bets

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