Is this marginal or a snap?
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 74
2 euro bounty on Unibet Poker
5/~100 remaining with blinds at 800/1600
Villian in UTG shoves for ~8000
Hero is in the BB with 4h8h and ~45,000 in chips (average stack).
Villian's bounty was ~1.20 euro, with 3rd, 2nd, 1st place paying ~10,20,30 euro
In the end I called and lost to A5o. Just wondering if this is a marginal spot or a snap call?
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 4,495
I don't know if I'm calculating it properly but I don't think the bounty is worth the risk to your stack given the ICM considerations. That's more than 1/5 of your stack.
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 74
Okay thank you, I really wasn't sure here. I don't play that many bounties so when I do icm decisions can often be difficult. I think if it wasn't suited I would have folded for sure.
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 1,173
It's a bit less than 1/5th of his stack actually. I don't think you can do wrong here either way. It's really close and probably just a totally marginal play one way or the other.
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 30
You need to convert his bounty into chips and then do the math.
So lets assume some numbers (fill in the correct ones):
- you get 3000 chips at the tournament start for the 2$ buy-in, where 1$ is the initial bounty
- this equals that 1$ bounty is worth 1500 chips
- this means he doesn't push with 8000 chips, but instead with 9800
- so you need to call for 8200 chips in the BB to possibly earn 12200 (9800+2400+antes?)
- if I got this right you need 67% equity against his UTG pushing range to make this call profitable
I don't think you have that equity with 4h8h -> fold
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 1,173
I think there's something wrong with the math if you're saying this situation requires 67% equity. Maybe you just threw that number out as an example though, cause that's gotta be way too high with a bounty factored in.
With the stack size and 8bbs on a 5 handed table this guy should be shoving close to 30% of his hands.
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 4,495
He forgot to add his own chips to the pot. It would be 8k to call for a pot of 9800+8000+2400+antes.
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 74
Yeah surely needing 67% equity is far too high here. Also, as HawkesDave said it was 5-handed and the villian had less than 5BBs so I don't think their position changes anything. I'm just glad others think it's marginal too and I'm not just bad. I also forgot to say there were antes so that with the forgotten 8000 Darth_Maul pointed out the equity required would be more around the 30/40% mark which makes it marginal.
Last edited by shornprawn; 03-15-2018 at 06:25 PM.
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 1,173
Shoot, I said 8BBs shoves 30%. I didn't even notice it was 5BBs, that makes it even wider than 30%. You were already 35% or so with 84hh against top 30% range without even counting the dead money+bounty, you're even better against a top 40% range. This might even be a snap call. Anyone able to do the math with ICM'izer with a guy opening 35 or 40%?
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 74
Yeah I think it was probably a snap too, we were already in the money but pay jump to 3rd was big. Although I'd say his shoving range was tighter than 30% if I remember correctly (don't use a tracker). Either way, probably a snap.
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 30
You are right- I forgot our own chips and that 67% should have been 33%. But then again my numbers are just an example on how to calculate this situation. To do the math we need the correct ones from OP.
