Here is the setup:

42 player $100 rebuy tourney:
Payouts $2100, $1400, $900, $480, $270, $150

Remaining Players: 8
Total Chips: 11500
Relevant stacks:
Villain 1 (button): 1075
Villain 2 (in the BB): 2025
Hero (in the SB): 2775

Note: Player in the cutoff (stack 1900) and Hero are the two best players left in the game. Most of the remaining players have no idea of shove/call ranges, ICM, etc. Also, Cutoff and Hero are swapping a significant portion of their action. Several of the other remaining 6 players are petrified of the bubble (including the button) and will fold waaaaayyy too much in order to cash. Villain 2 is the only other competent player left in the game.

Folded to Villain 1 on the button who raises to 300. Also, note that due to extensive history with Villain 1, Hero knows that the Villain will often raise light here and raise/fold their short stack. (LOL!)

Hero peeks at 33 in the SB and elects to shove. Villain 2 snaps it off with AK and Villain 1 folds. Hero loses the flip and is out soon.

So the question is what to make of the Hero's play. My thought is that given the composition of the remaining players and the Hero's stack size that calling would be bad, shoving is ok but very marginal and folding is best. Folding preserves the chip lead and stays out a marginal spot with a 3 bet where there is basically little/no fold equity against the opener (and the danger that the BB wakes up with a hand). I think the game is so soft that better spots will be there for the taking.

Thoughts?

- Phil

no mention of the blinds so we can see how deep you all are?

Whoops.

Blinds are 50/100 for 10 more minutes. Then 75/150 for 20 minutes.

- Phil

Wow, did you guys start at 1-2 with 200 chips each?

Anyway, I'll say something about the play. I don't like it. IIRC at a 10 handed table, the odds are 100% that someone else has a pair, so 8 handed there is still a high chance that someone else has a pair, and 3s don't look as good then. Small pps don't play very well in the late stages of a tourn, you really need high implied odds to play them, and especially at the final table, you just aren't going to get that. I would rather have 78 than 33 here (Wanna know why? Which hand do you think is favored?). You really should run 33 thru pokerstove and check your equity vs. likely villain hands. Oddly enough, the BB called you with one of the best hands for your 3s (as in you are actually favored).

I do actually get it. You were making a play on an opener who you were sure would fold, but if you are going to do this, you need to be sure no one else can wake up behind you with a big hand. Also, you can make this play on the original opener with ATC, and I'll be honest, I would rather have almost any other hand, in case the original opener DOES decide to look me up.

You have a large chipstack here, and are pretty comfortable for a while yet. Let this hand go (and any small pp) and save your stack for better situations. I think playing small pps this late in a tourn is a pretty big leak. As I said, spend some time with pokerstove checking out some equities, and I think you'll see what I mean....

I'm not sure what to say about this post.

The play is fine, based on you reads. It is higher Variance, but we want to win this thing.

Say whatever you want. If you want to get involved in at best a coin flip when your stack is VERY comfortable at these blinds, well, it's your money. You might wanna glance at the payouts again, though. This is not the normal 2100/1050/525/200 payouts. Second, third and fourth pay really well here.....

I agree with the OP that calling is out of the question, it's fold or shove here. I just think shoving is VERY marginal. OP states that he is one of the top 2 players at the table. That plus the payouts makes it very easy for me to pass here....

*Also, note this is live, NOT an online MTT

Um... you do not recall correctly.

I think it was a fine move with the read that first guy can r/f that stack often.

one of my biggest concerns with the play is actually around the depth of your stack. 27 bb is an awkward spot to be in. Less than 20, I'm saying shove, more than 30, let it go. 27... the answer is shove or fold, I can't really see flatting to set mine as a +eV (c or $) move at this point.

But live play is way different to online, your reads become such a bigger factor, but you should always keep in mind how many players are still left to act, which is exactly what went wrong for you here.

It's ~20bb effective stacks, as no one else left in the hand has more than that.

And about paying attention to how many people are left to act? It's 1.

remarkably, I can count...

Yeah, you are right. I think I was remembering a theoretical discussion that had something to do with the odds going up everytime one person was not dealt a pair, but honestly it was a long time ago, and I forget exactly what the discussion was about, I guess the odds are about 45% for anyone to have a pp, and 31% for 2 at 10 handed. Wish I could remember what that discussion was really about, I hate getting older....

Anyway, if you look at the equity for 33 vs. a random hand (the BB) and a reasonable but wide opening range (to account for folds by the opener), I still think this is a marginal +EV spot. If I was at the table, given that OP says this,

and then this,

seemingly 2 separate reads on the same player, I would take it that opener folds 50%, and lets say that BB wakes up with a hand 10% and opener folds as he did, and opener calls 40%, and every time we are called we are no worse than a flip (50-50), I would make the EV this as a quick and dirty guess at the table:

(.5*300) + (.2*1075) + (.2*-1075) + (.05*2025) + (.05*-2025) = 150

VERY marginal spot given that the OP feels the game is soft and he has a huge skill advantage over most of the other players.

Well yeah, only OP can have a good guess as to how much fold equity he actually has vs. original raiser. He did say button was petrified of the bubble so I was taking it that he actually had some pretty significant FE there.

But you left out how we win the 100 extra chips from BB if both fold, or if BB folds and we win vs. button, or the extra 300 we win if button folds and we win vs. BB. Also think BB calls less often than 10% (maybe 7.5%? which is 77+, ATs+, AJ+) which is good for us too.

Also, just imo, but a decent chunk our edge here actually comes from exploiting spots like this where we can manufacture decent fold equity against scared opponents when it's +ev to do so. If we start passing on these spots, our edge quickly diminishes. It appears average stack size is like 20BB or less so it's not like there's tons of room to play circles around anyone postflop or anything. If our edge comes from identifying these +ev spots and taking them when others do not, you can't really then use "I have an edge" as a reason to pass on those very spots.