$200 Satellite to the $1675 WSOPC Main Event at the Bike.

Blinds 800-1600/200, 20 min levels.
30 players left, 15 seats. Hero is slightly above average chips with 26k.

Villain is solid and has been active preflop, raising/3 betting 1-2 hands per orbit for the past couple levels with no showdowns, but lost a pot a few hands ago and is now down under 10bb.

Villain open shoves 14k from the CO. Folds to Hero in the BB with AQo.

Getting almost 1.5-1 to make the call, I think we're at least even money over the Villian's range (I'd guess top 10-15% hands), and if we call and win we can pretty much fold into the money.

Call and lose and we're in pretty bad shape with 12k and the blinds going up soon to 1000-2000/300.

Fold and we're still in decent shape, though definitely won't be able to fold in to the money.

Thoughts?

I think it really depends on stack size distributions but if there aren't a bunch of extreme short stacks I am calling here. Might be wrong though.

definitely would want to know about other stacks calling seems like a default

you are at 3 full tables, right? How easy is it to lp raise steal? I think you are too far from pay-out to be thinking about folding into the $$, but every damn time I call here he has AK exactly. An activer player should be shoving wider than 10-15% from the CO when folded to with only 10bbs. If he's a thinking player, I prolly call and pray for a Q.

I believe at the time of this hand my table had one big stack of ~60k, two stacks shorter than the villain (10-12k), and the rest in the 20-30k range. I'm not sure about the other tables, but there definitely weren't enough players about to be blinded out for that to factor into the decision.

I'm like snap calling here fwiw vs a decent player

He's gonna be way wider than 10-15% and we're not close enough to the bubble; call and feel good about it.

How nitty does the villain/table have to be in this spot to consider folding? There was definitely a different vibe when we got down to 3 tables and I got the sense that suddenly everybody was tightening up and thinking about the bubble even though it was still a ways off. In the couple orbits played after the hand, the table was tight enough that I felt like I could have stolen enough blinds to survive without the all in.

Ultimately, I called, villain had KK, I lost and got blinded down/busted 20th. Still think I'm ahead of his range and feel good about the call, but just wanted to see if anyone felt like folding was an option here.

I wanna say a good calling range here is like ATs+/88+

Well using really rough ICM along with your confidence in your own play, you should be able to put some very rough math to this.

For example, let's guess at your chances of cashing in each case:
Call, lose: 15%
Fold: 55%
Call, win: 90%

Now let's say you are a 60/40 favorite (your ranging is way to tight for a competent player from the CO).

.6*.9 + .4*.15 = 60% > 55% from folding

In that case it's a call.

If the table is nitting up, steals and resteals become soooo easy.
The math on this single hand will tell u to call, but I'm folding here and just stealing everything.

(Doh! Just saw he had kk. he jams so much wider lol. But more interested that you got blinded down. Surely there were spots to jam 10bb? I think this part of ur game needs work.)

cawl

Once I lose this hand, fold my small blind, and the blinds go up to 1000-2000/300, I only have 11k and an M under 2, so it really only took one round of blinds to get blinded down.

For the ICM i think that's probably pretty close, though I'm still not sure exactly what range to assign to the villain. From some pokerstoving the villain would have to shove over 25% for me to have 60% equity:
{ 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

I feel like his range is probably tighter than that, but maybe that's just because he showed up with KK.

Ah OK. Makes sense.