$400 local monthly deepstack, 180 runners, 62 remain, 22 paid. Average stack is 58,000. Hero = 75k, Villain = 140k. Blinds 600/1200/1200.

Villain is a late-20s local reg. I've played with him a bit before but not for a while. He is solid and thinking, from what I can remember. I was just moved to this table so have only played about 1 orbit with V in this particular tourney.

OTTH

9-handed, hero UTG+2, villain LJ. Hero raises AJ to $2,500. Villain flats, everyone else folds.

Flop ($8,000) AJ2
Hero bets $5,000, villain calls

Turn ($18,000) K
Hero checks, villain (after about a 15 second pause) bets $15,000. Hero calls.

River ($48,000) 5
Hero checks, villain shoves ($52,500 effective). Hero??

I think everything is standard until the turn. Should I be leading turn here? We're never folding turn right?

I just have a hard time finding value for V here. He should have no sets, no AK, and not many flushes. Q10, 45 and 34 are about the only flush draws that I could see calling a 63% psb on the flop, but they are both fairly weak calls pre in middle position.

Any thoughts on my turn play and river decision appreciated. Also any thoughts on ranging villain here. Thanks!

Is a range of (JJ,TT,99,88,77,66,55,44,33,22,AQ,AJ,ATs,A9s,A8s,A 7s,A6s,A5s,A4s,A3s,A2s,KQ,KJs,KTs,K9s,QJs,QTs,Q9s, JTs,J9s,T9s,98s,87s, 76s, 65s) reasonable for villain? He's deep and you kinda are too so if your opponents behind are typical tight-passive or loose-passive guys who never 3bet then villain can flat pretty wide here with great implied odds, expecting to either go heads up IP or multi-way with the best relative position, or just very frequently take a flier and see a flop on the cheap.

The EV of our range is closer to his than you might think so flop is mostly check with our range including this hand and then we can mix in x/r and x/c. But betting is OK too, AJ should be one of our highest freq cbets. If we are betting, I'd guess sizing should be smaller.

Turn is 100% a x/c its too tight to fold to just one bet. Don't barrel.

AP he has more flushes than us so folding is OK.

If we fold AJ we fold AK as well and vilain can turn his all range into a bluff and print money. So the question is : how agressive/creative/competent is he ? Against a strong balanced player I think we have to take the GTO approach and hero call river at some frequence because we need a calling range after taking this line and even if we can argue that AxQs and anything that blocks some flushes is possibly a better hand to bluff catch it shouldn't be too terrible to call the better hands in our range (he might once in a blue moon value cut himself with worst 2pairs).

If we don't expect him to turn anything into a bluff we can c-f turn. Once a bombs that turn we should expect him to shove river pretty much everytime, seems pretty optimistic to hope he does that with KJ/A2 to then c-back river, it's possible but we block those hands pretty hard and he can easilly pot control turn with that.

It's live, just soulread him.

Flop is fine. Maybe you can argue something like $3K just because villain is less likely to have an A on this board, but villain conversely has tons of flush draws that we want to get value from as well. I don't think villain folds stuff like QJ or TT to a single bet, either, so I'm ok with going bigger as this board will often change in ways that make it harder for us to get value on later streets.

Turn is a pretty standard x/c.

River is such a weird spot in that it's hard to come up with a line villain has that isn't a flush or air here. At that point, is removal even that relevant because what hands with the Qs or Ts is villain going to use as a bluff? From a pure MDF standpoint, we can fold more than half of our hands here and I'd assume AJ is in the bottom half of our range so maybe we can fold. But in reality, is a set any better here than AJ?

It's true that the only possible flush for me is a royal, but Q10 would be a pretty loose open for me in EP, maybe I'm opening it like 25%.

Am I discounting too many of V's flushes here? As I said in OP, I had a hard time putting him on many that would call pre and call flop...only 2 or 3...but maybe I should be expanding this.

I would have also expected to get raised by some of V's weaker FDs as well.

If I'm in V's shoes, would I take this line with ANY hand that contained the Q? Seems like a slam-dunk bluff line vs. me who literally cannot have a flush, and rarely EVER has straights. I even think V turns AxQ or KxQ into a bluff here because my call on the turn of a psb should indicate I can beat those hands.

I see a few people who agree with the turn x/c, but I actually prefer a b/f there. Checking lets him check back lots of hands with a Q, T, and/or spade in them and draw for free, and if a K, Q, T, or spade peels, he can put us in an awful spot when we are OOP on river whether he actually made his hand or not.

As played, if he has it, what does he hope we have that will check turn and river and stack off? I think AxQs is a pretty likely hand for him, so I think I would find a call knowing that, and that I don't think he is overpot jamming a flush for value since we so often don't have a hand that can call.

I do think he can have 22 some of the time as well, and is the more likely hand I see him jamming with than a royal.

Never leading or folding turn...river is tough spot although we may be able to fold this combo (vs the pop)...will have to look at it.

I love how a set and 2p are bluff catchers on this board.

O the power of position and board textures!

I think if villain is capable of exploiting the above then let's bluff catch.

I guess if it's in the realm of possibility that villain can do this with non-flush hands then maybe we want to call with our straights and sets, maybe call with AxQs and AxTs since those do block flushes, and then fold two pair hands? I get the idea of bluff catching, I just think that we may have better hands in our range to bluff catch and/or beat hands villain could theoretically bet for value.