Full Tilt Poker $16,500 Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t40/t80 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: t2455 M = 20.46
SB: t10415 M = 86.79
BB: t3510 M = 29.25
UTG: t2875 M = 23.96
UTG+1: t4705 M = 39.21
Hero (UTG+2): t6625 M = 55.21
MP1: t1245 M = 10.38
MP2: t5250 M = 43.75
CO: t3410 M = 28.42

Pre Flop: (t120) Hero is UTG+2 with A A
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t80, Hero raises to t320, 2 folds, CO calls t320, 4 folds

Flop: (t840) 3 A 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets t400, Hero calls t400

Turn: (t1640) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: (t1640) J (2 players)
Hero?


Op is very LAG, hence I check the flop knowing that he will fire a vast majority of time. I follow up on the turn, hoping to sell him that I have some mid-pair. My main question is on the river though - which line do you think yelds more +EV in the long run knowing that opponent is very aggro - leading out, or checking and hoping for the bet and then obv raising. Is my story of weakness compelling enough if I check the river?

Edit: I've been quite nitty (not getting many cards) and didn't get out of hand at all. Two hands that I played against the opp went: I got AK, raise, he calls, flop 678ds, I check, he bets, I fold, and the other hand was I got 77, he raises from UTG, I call on the button, flop AKQr he c-bets I fold.

In this case villain is lag, board is ultra dry, and villain likely to have air so id say check to induce prob more ev than value bet. Villain tossing some of his weaker pockets if you bet but will bet himself a good percentage of time if you check it to him for a third time.

he's never betting if you check and I doubt many players in this are going to be truly lag like your hand is just too strong on this board to expect to get a ton of value outside of some sick set > set cooler or something.

I tend to bet this flop fwiw

The board never got good for you. The problem is that you called his flop bet with what exactly? Some sort of pair? He will think you will call the river with that same hand, because the board is so dry, so checking to induce will not work unless he actually has a hand that he will value bet, while he might be inclined to make a call if you value bet the correct amount here, with a lot less than he will bet.