Quote:
Originally Posted by erc007
this may be closer than i thought initially...if villain ever blocks the riv w his 2pr combos, this has to be a call. if we assume 1st that hes calling wide (ie: all paint combos and any suited Ax and any SC's/sooted 1 gappers from 43 up.)
if so hes gonna have the following:
14 2 pr combos of KT(6);QT(6) and 86s(2)
9 combos of Axss
10 combos or SCss/1GAPss (43;53;54;64;65;75;76;97;J9;KJ)
and maybe 3 combos of a slowplayed 88
since we're getting ~2.5 to 1 on a call we only have to be good 28% of the time. so if he value bets all his spade combos(19) and blocks w 88(3) and only KT(6) we break even on a call since KT comprises ~27% of his combos that value bet/block the river. if he ever blocks w his other 2pr combos or turns JT ot QJ into a bluff then we profit on a call.
if we assume hes calling a tighter range (ie: less Ax combos and less SC/1gap and only suited paint) the # of combos goes down but the proportion/ratio (of spade combos to 2pr hands) should be close to the same.
+1
Unless you have some type of read on this villian i agree.. I would doubt you have much in terms of reads tho based on the stack sizes and low blinds you probably hadnt played with him for more than15 minutes...
I dont hate a call here, as stated he could be turning his hand into a bluff, or blocking/value betting a worse 2 pair. With all those draws out there i doubt he ever slowplays a set like that. There are enough hands you can beat to justify it. Cant hate a fold here tho as he called 2 streets and led out on a made flush river in a hand where you showed a lot of strength the whole way.