This is a standard fold right? Hero is 1/7, 6 get paid.



I was planning to call either one of them but when they both put it in there, I feel like I'm looking really bad.

I would snap this. It doesn't even effect you much if you lose and they could easily be sharing outs with big aces.

We need ~30% to break even from a CEV standpoint and from an $EV standpoint I'd want a bit more as having 80bb 7 handed on Merge means having quite a bit of equity and I doubt calling is going to give us much more.

They both know I'm calling usually a lot here. They are also both really happy to get it in on the bubble. That tells me that they are uber strong. I doubt we're looking at 30% equity versus both here ... (especially the second guy who is more than happy to ship it in, and he's a reg.)

I'd call. Even if I knew I was up against two very strong hands.
Reasons: Pot Size, Knockout Equity, and Possibility of Best Hand.

It costs you 9,180 to call a pot of over 23,000.
Obviously that isn't the 5 to 1 you'd need if you knew a single opponent had an over-pair, but there is certainly added equity for the double knockout possibility.
Finally, quite often neither of your opponents will possess an overpair, and in this scenario they will be sharing outs.
Let's assume that shover #1's range is a-9 & up + any pair. shover # 2's range then should = aq-ak, tt or better.

Shover # 1's range contains 96 possible card combinations (6*16) of a-9 and better hands (with which we are slight favorites). His range contains 109 possible pair hands. (We tie 1 of those, are beating 18, and are about 5-1 dogs to 90)(12*9+1). So we are ahead more often than not against this shover. Shover #2 is where the math needs to be applied. (Note: this is a conservative shoving range which should help my argument)

Our pot odds relevant to Shover #2 must be considered in the context of Shover #1 since their starting stacks are nominally equal. In the previous paragraph we deduced that about half the time Shover # 1 will have two overcards and about half the time he will have a pair (we could have included kq in the range, depends on your read at that point). So let's start by doing some math based on Shover #1 having a big ace, then look at Shover #1 holding a solid pair.

Let's say Shover #1's exact hand is AJ. I think that Shover #2 would probably need tt or better, Aq, or AK to make this overcall for his tournament life on the bubble. (I guess he would have a few k left, but essentially an overcall scenario). He can receive a pocket pair 39 different ways (6aa, 9kk, 9qq, 6jj, 9tt), and can receive aq or ak 24 different ways (3a*4k) + (3a*4q).

Now let's say shover's hand is exactly 88. Shover #2 can then be dealt ak or aq 32 ways and a pp 45 ways.

From this we can see that of the 205 possible card combinations held by Shover #1 we are either slightly ahead, dominating, or tied in 115 of those card combos.

From that 56% of scenarios we are then going to be facing aq or ak approximately 1/3 of the time. That means that about 19% of the time we will be a relatively significant favorite to win the pot, most of these scenarios involve them sharing an ace). So let's say one player has AJ and one has AK (the odds involved in this scenario will occur about 19% of the time). We are about 45% to win the pot in this scenario.

The other 81% of the time we will be up against a situation with odds like those we would find against ak and tt. Leaving us about a 1/5 chance of winning.

Now let's simplify the math. 1/5th of the time you will be about 50/100. 4/5ths of the time you will be about 20/100. This means aggregately we will win the pot about 26 times out of a hundred. So lets say we win the pot 1/4 of the time (Note this would be higher if you expand shover # 2's range to include AJ, At etc).

We are not getting the 4:1 that this situation calls for, but 23/9 is a little better than 2.5:1 and the opportunity to knock two players out with minimal risk to your stack makes this a tolerable risk.

BTW idk why I just did an extended analysis, bc I would snap this for sure.

Although if CBorders thinks we need 30% from a CEV standpoint maybe I am wrong. Although I am more inclined to take this risk because the difference b/t 80k and 70k is nominal, but the difference b/t 5 players and 7 is huge. If you were to win this pot your odds of winning the tournament go up significantly, and if you lose it, I don't think they are significantly affected. But maybe that logic isn't backed by math, just my opinion.

seems like a fold. they should not think to have alot FE and its a FT so ranges are somewhat tight, add a few more hands if you like but our equity will not go up alot (not >30% anyway)
if we opened from CO i'd prolly call.

Hand 0: 23.771% 23.65% 00.13% 12796227252 67775324.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 34.470% 33.06% 01.41% 17891421588 762633320.00 { 66+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 2: 41.760% 40.35% 01.41% 21836677116 762633320.00 { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }