No reads on villain, but I have been pretty active and probably perceived as laggy. River seems like a reluctant fold to me, but main concern is what to do on turn. Thoughts on all streets plz and ty.
Poker Stars $20+$2 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t200/t400 Blinds + t50 - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (UTG): t25539 M = 24.32
lilya72 (UTG+1): t10895 M = 10.38
LAJG (UTG+2): t12282 M = 11.70
MakeMeBelive (MP1): t12770 M = 12.16
bc_tyrrell (MP2): t28069 M = 26.73
2MaR2 (CO): t15287 M = 14.56
LeMunche (BTN): t18387 M = 17.51
BuzzDog1971 (SB): t7509 M = 7.15
Big Huni (BB): t17894 M = 17.04

Pre Flop: (t1050) Hero is UTG with A T
Hero raises to t985, 4 folds, 2MaR2 calls t985, 3 folds

Flop: (t3020) Q A K (2 players)
Hero bets t1785, 2MaR2 calls t1785

Turn: (t6590) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, 2MaR2 bets t1600, Hero calls t1600

River: (t9790) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, 2MaR2 bets t6550, Hero?

Well, I fold this pre unless the table is supertight, but it sounds like that's not really your style. Cbet on the flop looks standard. Turn card is horrible, and his bet is suspiciously small, but if he's any kind of thinking villain he knows that's a good card to bluff after you check on the turn.

River, I can't see calling here with TPGK on a 3 straight, 3 flush board. Villain dependent, I may even give this up on the turn. I'd need a solid soul read to call that river.

Fold pre.
























j/k

Cbet is fine, I lead turn, but c/c is good too, esp after his betsizing. River is weird, and I only call if hes capable of turning like a mid pair + heart or pair + gutshot into a bluff on the river, putting you on a weak ace.

I have the nut fd on the turn

I like it and I would fold river.

fold pre, as played you obv have to c-c turn and river seems like a pretty standard fold unless im missing something.

Not sure how I missed that. Yeah, c/c on the turn is how I would play that street.

I don't mind your line on each street as long as you folded the river(pre isn't my style but w/e). I think I'm more inclined to lead the turn for about half the pot and if he shoves we just gotta let it go. But I think c/c is good too(maybe better?).

Fold pre is a matter of taste and dynamics IMO.

On a closer review, leading turn sucks with stacks as the are, so c/c turn, and fold river unless you own his soul.

I want to c/r shove this turn SOOOOO bad...especially after the weak 1/4 pot bet.

Don't.

why? We could be ahead here, and we can get better hands to fold. I haven't seen anyone here put villain on any sort of range either, but everyone is saying c/c turn c/f river if we dont hit a heart. We're like never up against a set here, I really only can put villain on AT-AQ, and JT. AT and AJ fold (maybe not AxJh), and AQ may fold some small % of the time (maybe = the % of time villain flats pre and flats flop with AK?)

EDIT: forgot about KQ.

How bout cbet flop, b/f turn?

As played I fold pretty quick on river.


Oops, sorry Markulous already suggested this and P3's point is correct about stacks and betting turn. I fold pre, BTW.

Glad I could help.

We really need to see this river without running straight into the top of his range (which has us being about a 3:1 underdog). So b/f would suck as we'll miss a lot of good rivers when we're behind and c/r sucks as we'll put it as much money as possible when we're behind.

Am I missing something here? If hero has been active and is viewed as LAGgy, do you really think villain has QQ+ or AK here given action?

No, but he could easily have a straight, flush or KQ. We have 9 outs to a flush, and 9 + 3 split outs to a straight, and 15 outs to KQ (i think), which is what we're likely to be up against if our turn c/rai is called.

Even throwing in 67hh-JThh and 68hh-J9hh, we are almost exactly a 2 to 1 dog on the turn.

So how are we 3 to 1 dogs against the top of his range again (I included JT in the original stove work, along with KQ)

Because you're likely stoving too many combos in his range.

Ok so give me your range.

high broadway cards IMO

I think he is talking about once he raises the turn. The alternative to your scenario is that he called an UTG raise pre, called the cbet, and then bluffraised the turn on that board. I am bad at these spots but betting turn let's him play more perfectly, bluffing our bottom and VB our top. Committing 30% of his stack BY THE TURN lessens the hands that we beat, IMO.

(67hh not possible BTW)

I mean when you stove the top of his range, you can't stove all suited combos, and you have to exclude all ace high flushes. You have to enter hands individualy when stoving postflop (JTo,Th9h,9h8h,etc), or pokerstove will calculate with all other suited combos, also non-flushes.

I bet/call the turn and think check/raising is a sizable mistake.

First, I think folding pre is pretty standard, tbh... in terms of dynamics, you said you've been pretty active. If I'm opening relatively wide, I'd much rather LAG it up with 76s than ATo from UTG. I think it's an open fold, though it's obviously not a big mistake either way.

C-bet seems fine.

Turn is a very difficult spot imo. Were you going to check/shove a standard sized bet? I don't think that's a great play, tbh, because while we have so many outs, I doubt he's ever folding after putting in a real turn bet given his stack size... he's pretty much committed.

To have a profitable turn c/shove, we probably need him to fold, idk, maybe at least 20% of the time... maybe more. Without cranking numbers, it's a total guess, but the point is that he won't fold often enough to make a check/shove +EV, imo. I really don't think he's floating this flop with any hand that he'll fold once he bets the turn. Again, a turn bet commits him, and our check/shove has too little fold equity to make our play +EV... it's -EV.

So yeah, I actually think stack size dynamics say we need to bet/call the turn. The key point is that if we check and villain puts in real bet, he'll have more than half his stack in the middle and he won't be able to fold almost anything. Checking this turn is a moderate mistake. We don't want to give villain a chance to bet and thus commit himself to this pot, rendering our check/shove -EV as it won't get him off any of his range.

But I'm obviously not planning to fold here... our hand is so strong... so we need to lead the turn to generate max fold equity so that a) villain doesn't commit himself to the pot with a hand he might fold when we double barrel and b) he knows that we are committed to snapping a shove from him.

I'd say bet/call >>>>>>>>>>> check/shove on the turn.

As played, the turn check/call is best given his bet size. It's the +EV option.

I think river is closer than others ITT... but I think you said it, it's a reluctant fold.

I did that.

Anyway, using this fold equity calculator, and giving us a very reasonable equity if called as 30%, we only need villain to fold to our shove 20% of the time to be profitable. I think this is a shove.

EDIT: and just reading willy's post, I think there is fold equity here. I don't think villain has committed himself, and I'm almost positive that villain does NOT want us to raise after his bet.

Willy. How is bet/call correct, and check/raise a horrible mistake? I just don't see the logic in that, when we have a marginal draw against his get-it-in range. Even c/f is better iyam. How are we ever gonna get in any money ahead by either b/c or c/rai? This turn is also terrible with regards to FE, esp with a c/rai.

Francis, 30% might just be right, sorry for questioning your calculations, as I have done none myself. I still think c/rai is spew as there's nearly no FE when he bets turn.