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KK tough river decision KK tough river decision

11-10-2015 , 01:44 PM
2.20+r tournament

Opponent seems more on aggro side 30/15/8 3bet over 130 hand sample

Is folding otr reasonable on such runout?


    Poker Stars, $2 Buy-in (40/80 blinds, 15 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37161403

    UTG+2: 7,863 (98.3 bb)
    MP1: 17,569 (219.6 bb)
    MP2: 19,613 (245.2 bb)
    MP3: 4,765 (59.6 bb)
    CO: 43,205 (540.1 bb)
    BTN: 3,855 (48.2 bb)
    SB: 6,610 (82.6 bb)
    Hero (BB): 10,978 (137.2 bb)
    UTG+1: 7,887 (98.6 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with K K
    UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to 160, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to 440, 4 folds, Hero raises to 1,365, UTG+2 folds, MP2 calls 925

    Flop: (3,065) 4 2 6 (2 players)
    Hero bets 1,471, MP2 calls 1,471

    Turn: (6,007) J (2 players)
    Hero bets 2,442, MP2 calls 2,442

    River: (10,891) Q (2 players)
    Hero checks, MP2 bets 14,320 and is all-in, Hero folds

    Spoiler:
    Results: 10,891 pot
    Final Board: 4 2 6 J Q
    MP2 mucked and won 10,891 (5,598 net)
    Hero mucked K K and lost (-5,293 net)



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    KK tough river decision Quote
    11-10-2015 , 08:42 PM
    I think a fold here is acceptable there's not a whole lot of busted draws or hands that he was floating with that would now decided to shove the river in his range. All value hands he does this with have you beat except maybe AQo that floated you to the river but highly unlikely. He could have made a set of jacks or queens on the turn on river but I think he would have raised you on the turn with 3 jacks so imo it's QQ or a slow played AA. 2 pair or a lower set don't make much sense since he would most certainly raise on the flop. If he has been more aggressive it would have to be depend more so on where exactly he was aggressive in certain spots because he could have just been picking up hands and not really getting out of line just catching of a rush of cards. Not an easy lay down in any case.
    KK tough river decision Quote
    11-11-2015 , 12:57 AM
    Why would he ever raise his sets In position against my nutted 4bet range from bb its pretty clear ill have overpair in most cases and im going to barell it and he wants to keep my bluffs/semi-bluffs aswell why would he put his hand faceup and raise flop/turn with sets on dry board
    KK tough river decision Quote
    11-11-2015 , 01:27 AM
    i would have bet more on the turn, and i really dont like the fold on the river. Something to note is that it is a rebuy and early on people can get crazy.

    i call the all in on the river, however I would have acted much more agressive on the turn and river had I been playing this hand, i wouldnt have checked the river.
    KK tough river decision Quote
    11-11-2015 , 02:22 AM
    Regarding pre-flop it probably doesn't matter so much in a $2 tournament but I would say maybe for buy-ins $10 and up and definitely mid/high stakes you will want to just flat your whole range pre. The reason is when you cold 4b with these relative positions you basically inform Villains that you have either KK or AA so on a lot of boards they will know that you can only have one pair at most and that is not a situation you want to be in vs. someone competent. Also they can just hero fold JJ, even QQ pre (which is a disaster for you) and gii w/AA so you let them play perfectly against you, minimizing their loss when they're behind and maximizing when ahead. Just worth noting, again probably doesn't matter in a $2, get dem chips in wit dem good hands.

    Postflop is WP imo. I would size flop and turn smaller like 1200, 2000 just to draw him in with medium pairs on a dry board where you don't really need any protection. Clear fold otr where he can't have any bluffs unless he somehow decides to turn TT into a bluff which I don't expect barely ever (also it will fold to turn barrel a lot). Even AKss which could have been a speculative two street float for him just got there otr.
    KK tough river decision Quote
    11-11-2015 , 03:17 AM
    AK of spades yeah that just got there on the river other than that there is very few combos of AK that make it to this river. And I'm sure that if the opponent had you beat on the flop or turn he would have raised you somewhere along there, when it looks like you have an overpair he'll want to raise you on the flop or turn before cards come that will kill his action. In this case yeah there isn't many cards that could come that will make you easily fold but through your opponents mind he's probably thinking most players in that tournament aren't capable of folding over pairs. Why wait till the river to just shove when he could have milked you for more earlier? That Q of spades must've made his hand or he had the whole way and slow played right until the river, I can't think of 1 bluffing hand that plays this way except yeah maybe 1010.
    KK tough river decision Quote

          
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