Borgata Spring Open Million Dollar Gurantee 2408 entrants, 202 left with top 200 getting paid $1,300+, 1st is $200,000ish

Hero (190k 2nd shortest stack at table) Blinds 6,000/12,000 2000

JJ UTG I make it 29,000 CO call, aggressive MAWG with 600-700,000
Flop Q96, Hero checks, Villain puts out enough stacks of 5000s to put Hero all in. Hero tank folds. =(

Comments greatly appreciated, I told myself I wasn't going to let the bubble affect me but it did.

With 15 bb's UTG then just shove pre and I don't think it's close ...That said if the min cash is important to you then just nit fold and don't tell anyone I guess

shove pre

This. With JJ just shove pre with your stack to simply avoid being outplayed by bigger stacks in position when overcards hit the flop.

With KK or AA where you basically love every flop- minraising pre to induce action is better.

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all in preflop

If you needed the money then it's ok what you did.
Obv shoving with a bankroll

Agree with shove pre, but as played fold is fine.

shove pre is fine but imo so is 2x/c. 2x/c is better if there are players at the table who have been 3b and shoving over shorter players a lot on the bubble or if youve 2x/f to 3b a few times in last few hours. as played i fold you need around 38% equity to call and thats not accounting for ICM so prob need 40%+, even against most loose shove ranges youre under 40%. what was your plan if he bet 40-50k?

Raise all your chips but one and tank get it in pre flop.

We only have about 10bb eff
This is a clear cut open shove or nit fold. Not deep enough to play post flop oop.

If you were just inside of the money is this an easy shove pre "for you"? If so than the bubble is effecting you and you should fold everything.

Shove pre or leave the room until the bubble bursts.

shovepre

nice hand

Minraise is OK if you play postflop OK. Folding pre is awful.

As played, seems like easy call to flop push. Is he really pushing for twice pot if he can beat JJ.

shoving pre is lighting money on fire

So is folding to this push on the flop. If you are going to play so scared postflop, then shoving pre is better.

The former is true, the latter is a flawed rationale

You definitely could get into difficult spots postflop, but this isn't one of them. I am not sure I like the check. However, if you cbet and he raised or called, it could be tricky, as he could have a Q. When he just pushes twice pot into the short stack on the bubble, it is obvious he wants a fold. CO pretty much never has better made hand. He could be the favorite with a combo draw, but he could have a weak draw or 2nd pair, or just an overcard. You are probably about 75% against his range plus pot odds.

bingo

Preflop depends on how badly you play postflop short stacked. This is not a good flop to represent on. You could probably cbet fold a lot of A-high or K-high flops. It should be easy to gii on the majority of flops, where you have a set, overpair, or straight draw.

Here we are given that villain was an aggressive big stack and called from CO. When he makes that overbet push he is representing a draw or weakish pair. You could run into a weak Q or monster draw, but he probably bets normally with those.

Sure you often get overcards, but getting called by an aggressive player with wide range isn't a bad result, if you aren't going to make weak folds like this. He will probably throw away a lot of chips on flops you are never folding on.

Shove pre.

As played pre, your flop play was good until you folded.

If you push for 15xBB UTG on the bubble, are you getting called often by anything you are significantly ahead of?

If you raise pre and don't flop a set are you check/folding or bet/folding every hand coz icm?

arguments can be made to nit fold pre, for sure. i'd consider this if there were several 1-3BB shorties trying to survive.

but if Hero wishes to min raise pre, then it should be to exploit icm dynamics, not to meekly fold to any aggression. as played, it's gii on a Qxx on that action. aggressive line, but a reasonable expectation that V has far worse than JJ in range and is applying pressure. worth considering as a strat if mincash is worth less to Hero than 30BB and a solid battleplan to go from 30BB to the FT.

Is ICM that big because of the mincash? Is 15xBB that much lower than average. What is your equity in the prize pool compared to the mincash?

If people are trying to outplay you, that could be good. Think you should plan to gii with an overpair, set, and most straight draws for sure.

Pretty sure open shove is $EV+ though, and you shouldn't open fold unless you have psychological or bankroll issues with busting.

nice hand

After the check villain's got to think he can get you to fold 80%+. He might choose a different sizing with a very strong hand also, there's no doubt in my mind that he's slightly capped here. Therefore only Qx beats us, call.