Just played a $750 Satty at Crown tonight called "four of a kind" where we win 4 main event tickets for different series at Crown. The package is worth 17k, there were 6 packages up for grabs and 10 players left.

Average is about 15BB, there are 3 people with shorter stacks than myself and I have 13BB. MTT pro open jams for about ~17BB in MP covering everyone left to act. I have AKs on the BTN and make the sigh call. We lose to KJo which is brutal.

I ran 77+ KJo+ against my hand and I'm about a 60% favourite. If I win the all in I'm pretty much a lock for the seat. If I fold, I estimate that I get the seat probably around 60-65% of the time. Is there a possible argument for a fold?

I wouldn't fold there.

You are just out of the money and you will need to increase your stack in order to get in.

This seems like a prime opportunity. You are going to be about 50% against some hands (PP's), 60% against some small subset of hands (like QJ/QT/JT which should be played only some of the time) and 70% against Ax and Kx.

You got screwed.

if the other players were splashy and trading chips i could consider folding here