Yes your jam was a pretty big mistake. You're 2 spots away with a 3rd place stack and there is one guy basically all in sitting out, plus another guy with half your stack and a third shorty with 9bb. Risking your stack on a utg shove with AK is ICM suicide.
His call is also a mistake because he has to hope he's flipping when he calls off, and the risk of busting far outweighs the value of doubling. The fact that micro stakes players don't understand ICM is why you have to be careful in spots like this - you can't assume that they will call super tight because of the ICM risk.
Hard to know exactly what is “standard” in terms of the payout structure here, but I’m guessing most of the time we should be pretty happy shoving this.
I think shove is fine - mostly won't get called and only really an ICM disaster when called by a big stack
Yes V's call not great but not terrible either - we can have quite a few underpairs to TT here
I think shove is fine - mostly won't get called and only really an ICM disaster when called by a big stack
Yes V's call not great but not terrible either - we can have quite a few underpairs to TT here
I'm still trying to learn but isn't saying "only really an ICM disaster when called by a big stack" wrong?
It's either a good shove or a bad one right? The outcome doesn't matter.
I'm saying it's a good shove - because it's overall +$EV in my estimation
Despite the times when we are called by one of the stacks that cover us being -$EV because ICM factor in this situation is so high - when we are called by shorter stacks ICM factor is not so high for us ( although pretty high for them which is why TT call is not brilliant)
TT is ahead of most open shove ranges. Hero never open shoves QQ+. JJ, AKx, AQx can open shove or call a 3bet jam here. AJx can open raise and fold to a 3bet here. Overall this was a good play just don't run into flopped quads next time.
Just ran this through ICMizer. I was wrong - AK is a pretty clear shove. However, TT is a very marginal call for the LJ if Hero is shoving as he should. If Hero shoves tighter than the recommended range, which I imagine he would, TT becomes a very clear fold.
Just ran this through ICMizer. I was wrong - AK is a pretty clear shove. However, TT is a very marginal call for the LJ if Hero is shoving as he should. If Hero shoves tighter than the recommended range, which I imagine he would, TT becomes a very clear fold.
ICMizer isnt for mixed strategies, you can r/f this hand which i guess is better than shoving. Shoving through the two big stack clearly isnt helping either.
Not considering other options its shove > fold.
About his TT call it depends a lot on how he perceives your range but in vacuum/vs the population it surprise me if its not martinal at best.
