Terrible hand conversion.

Title states it better:

ICM. 77 vs wide-ish 14 BB on the bubble.

me and 2 other villians are on 14 BB, with 1 villaian on 32BBs.


I fold..... feels weak. I came from cash- from the number of open shoves I witnessed in the last 5 mins from this guy- 77 is ahead of his range. But on the bubble????


Hand Information
PokerStars , 160 BB (4 handed).
Hand History converter courtesy of pokerhandreplays.com

Table Information
Seat: 3 Hero ($2858) Big Blind
Seat: 4 player4 ($2843)
Seat: 5 player5 ( 5546 ) ($26.11) Dealer
Seat: 8 player8 ( 2253 ) ($19.66) Small Blind
Dealt to Hero


Preflop (Pot:240)
player4 FOLD
player5 ( 5546 ) RAISE $320
player8 ( 2253 ) RAISE $2313
Hero FOLD
player5 ( 5546 ) FOLD
player8 ( 2253 ) ALL-IN
Showdown:
player8 ( 2253 ) MUCKS

player8 ( 2253 ) wins the pot: $499.66

I think a fold is perfectly OK since the shove is in fact a 3 bet vs the big stack. On the bubble we tighten up our shoving range a lot when facing a 3 bet that will in all likelihood be called behind.

I'm happy with folding because there's been much action before us

According to Icmizer with Nash-ranges this is actually a -0.02% call. This assumes 34% BTN open, 18% SB shove, 11%/3% BTN call/overcall.

Thats actually quite a bit better than I was thinking at first. Assuming BTN doesnt adjust to SB, Id call this. Reason being that the maniac SB will shove before you so often that you hardly get a good shove spot yourself. So, unless you think CO/BTN are likely to look BTN up lightly in the coming rounds, youll lose a lot more equity than 0.02% in future rounds.

Without doing any calculations I’d generally say BTN is prob opening 33-44% in game I’d prob assume 33% so anyone with half a brain would be restealing with 19% if not slightly more. I’d prob call In the big blind with 8-9% of hands. With all that said 77 is super borderline it depends heavily on restealing ranges. I wouldn’t fault you for going with either option.

The above poster states according to his results that he actually did Nash calculations on.. 11% should be the correct defend range against Sb restealing here. However 77 is within the 11% range so it’s odd to me it’s less than a breakeven call. I would think 11% includes 55+ ATo & A9s off the top of my head.

It's 11% call for BTN if we fold. 77 was - 0.02 according to ICMizer Nash, if I did everything correct.