Poker Stars $50+$5 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: t4555 M = 60.73
BB: t2692 M = 35.89
UTG: t3180 M = 42.40
UTG+1: t2895 M = 38.60
UTG+2: t3030 M = 40.40
Hero (MP1): t2805 M = 37.40
MP2: t4095 M = 54.60
CO: t4738 M = 63.17
BTN: t3475 M = 46.33

Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is MP1 with 7 7
UTG raises to t150, 2 folds, Hero calls t150, MP2 raises to t450, 4 folds, UTG calls t300, Hero calls t300

Flop: (t1425) J T T (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks

Turn: (t1425) J (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets t555, UTG calls t555, Hero raises to t2355 all in

WUG thoughts? I'll post mine later

don't like pre
turn is creative

I felt like it tho pre

ok...but you asked how we felt about it

I totally know that pre is terrible!

I think this is pretty awesome.

I think calling the 3-bet pre-flop is close. We're calling off 11% of effective stacks here, which is a lot, but we are 3-way, and these guys are representing super strong ranges (UTG open and a 3-bet at a relatively early blind level and no antes), so I expect to get paid off a lot when we hit.

I think your bluff is awesome because there really aren't many J's or T's in these guys' ranges, unless they have lolquads. I don't know if you have any reads on these guys, but I really don't expect UTG to raise/call pre with AT or AJ. I also think hands like KJ, KT or worse are rarely in his UTG range (readless).

MP2's 3-bet range at this level is generally super strong. His bet sizing over an UTG open and a call also screams strength. QQ+, AK sounds about right.

I feel like MP2's flop check says his range is pretty polarized between the slow-played stone cold nuts (like TT and JJ, which I didn't put in his range above but are possible though super unlikely), air hands like AK that don't want to c-bet 3-way, or a draw like KQ, which I doubt he has. I don't think MP2 checks the flop with QQ+ as the board is pretty connected, and he can get value from a J.

On the turn, UTG's check indicates weakness. MP2's bet looks weak and is easily trying to steal the pot after 2 opponents check, both indicating weakness. UTG may be check/calling with a draw like KQ, Ax, or even a naked A thinking it's good a lot here.

And while I doubt they have many T's in their range, and Zeebo tells us they almost certainly won't fold a T, anyway, it's not impossible that you bluff someone off the second-nut full house here. I'm sure you're not relying on that because it will almost never work, but it's a small consideration.

So I really like this. I'm pretty sure I would have instantly folded the turn, but thinking about, I think it looks pretty good, and I think you get them off overpairs (and obviously overcards) a lot. If someone snaps with quads, it's unlucky imo.

wow very imaginative nh

UTG only have a Tx hand in his range and it's AT and he fold this one pre alot not to mention to a squeeze. MP2 very rarely if ever squeeze with a T either so I think it's safe to scrap any Tx hand for both.

For Jx now, again very tough for UTG to call a squeeze with AJ OOP multiway. The only hand MP2 squeeze with has to be JJ and he can't have quads. It looks alot like AK/AQ for both.

This is, as others have said, pretty cool. I wonder, though, if our opponents can think beyond "he must have it"--I'm not sure what your range is for this, but what hand are you repping that calls an UTG raise, flats a 3-bet 3-way and has a jack (or ten) in it? JJ and TT seem like about it, and nobody ever believes it's quads. Is the board scary enough for this not to matter?

Neither is folding a T and I think MP2 can have one often enough. With 0 equity you need them to fold just short of 50% of the time, I'm not so sure they do... what are your thoughts? utg has AK every time and MP2... also Ax?

fold pre

I'm undecided because I'm so freakin confused by MP2. You would think QQ-AA bet/calls flop. If AQ/AK checks flop, leading turn ~1/3rd pot makes no sense at all. Its also hard for me to give UTG a wide range on the turn. I think Jx and Tx are still realistic along with a few hands that can fold (AQ, KQ)

why would neither fold a 10? Just cause we are able to hand read and wouldnt really put me on Jx that much or probably rarely doesnt mean they are smart enough to be able to handread...I do expect people to think that my line or my c/r on the turn looks insanely strong and thats the only thing that people are cabable off thinking...people are not like ''he doesnt have many Jx in his range, so my 10 must be good...'' they are just randomly clicking buttons. I dont expect MP2 to ever have 10x or Jx I do expect him to have an overpair sometime, but most likely he just has AK. I do expect him to bet his strong hands on the flop, so yeah I would def not think he has any kinda strong hand in his range and he will never call, since he'd bet all his strong hands on the flop. At least I would expect him to do so, and I dont think he'd 3bet any J/10x pre unless he has quads.

I do also think that the other guy who called doesnt really have much Jx, 10x hands in his range, cause why the hell would he call a 3bet with those kinda hands? AJ maybe, yes, thats the only hand I could see calling, but besides I would be pretty surprised.

I think against complete noobs it doesnt matter to an extend that it makes the play unprofitable, sure, there are some randoms who are aware off ranges and stuff, but I do think in general that people are too bad for this to matter tbh.

And also Willy great post. Every point that you made was pretty much spot on, and although I think they will be folding 10x sometime (off course not a very high amount off the time) I just don't think they have it in their range at all, at least a supersmall amount off the time.

Thanks man.

Great to have you in SSMTT. This is a super interesting OP hand.

What is UTG's range then if Jx and 10x aren't in it? AQ only? If somehow UTG does end up with Jx or 10x postflop, I don't see how you can rule that out on this board. Theres clearly no value for 10x on the turn and Jx doesn't need to protect vs anything (and is short enough to get stack in on rivers)

yeah i like it too wtf the pot is big and there is FE and fuggettaboutit it's the only way to win the pot!

Well, I mean I dont really expect a random to flat 3bets with J9, 109 typish hands that early, I might be wrong but I just dont think that ppl are doing it a lot. Sure it is in his range some off the time, but then again the question it comes down to does he have this type off hands enough there to make my shove bad/unprofitable? I dont think so, I just dont expect a random in a 50fo to call 3bets superwide pre at this stage off the tourney.

Also somebody who is bad enough to call Jx hands pre is bad enough to lead the flop here a decent amount off the time cause his thoughts are ''I hit, now I haz to bet to see where Im at''.

can somebody ban zeal from my threads?

I mean cool story bro and all but you might wanna learn how to play pokerz first

We can't rule it out completely, but we only need villains to fold 48% of the time to make this profitable. We also actually chop 4% of the time with Tx hands when a J comes on the river, so we have some minuscule pot EV even against Tx. This doesn't make a big difference, but it does give us something more here.

Also remember that yes, like Karl and others have said, hand reading/reasoning tells us villain doesn't have much Jx or Tx in his range... but we also need to consider the combinatoric effects of this texture on those holdings.

With JJTT on the board, it's 50% harder for him to have Jx and Tx hands and 83% harder to have JJ or TT in the hole. A hand like AJ normally has 16 combinations of possible hands. With JJ on the board, there are only 8 combinations left in the deck, 50% less. A hand like TT normally has 6 combinations of hands. With TT on the board, there is only 1 combination left in the deck, 83% less.

So yeah, our basic hand reading/reasoning tell us that Jx and Tx aren't generally in his range, though you're right, it's certainly not impossible especially without a read. However, combinatorics makes it even less likely he holds those hands. It's seriously hard to have those hands (like 50% - 83% harder than normal), and they comprise a way smaller % of total turn ranges than the other hands we think he's more likely to have, anyway. So combine our basic hand reading with the combinatorics, and I think we're getting a ton of folds here.

sick bluff. this is really a brag thread, isn't it?

That said, I'm kinda torn on the bluff because I feel like it relies entirely on the assumption that MP2 will make a really bad turn bet with a decent portion of his range. Outside Jx and quads, nothing bets the turn for value and I seriously doubt MP2 chooses to b/f QQ+ on the turn, so you're left hoping that he decided to stab with AQ or AK rather than checking back and hoping to get to showdown, which is not going to be my default assumption in a 50fo, and esp not when there was a 3-bet pre.

I guess what I'm saying is that I feel like you almost never see MP2 bet the turn here, but when he does it's almost always the nuts.

Initially when I think about a good spot to bluff I want to be able to list a bunch of hands UTG can fold. Maybe because of the board texture his range is soo narrow anyway that its not a big deal if you can't come up with a lot of marginal hands.

We've been talking a lot about what isn't in villain's range...but there isn't much about UTG's actual range (ie: what is he folding?). Can we be okay with saying he only has 1 hand in his range? AQ seems most likely to me

He almost never has AQ because of the preflop action

The guy who called the 3bet can't have AQ?

I don't think this reasoning makes much sense tbh.

You're saying Karl can't rely on villain making a bad turn bet. However, you are relying on villain making a really bad smallish pre-flop 3-bet over a UTG open > 70BB deep at 25/50 with hands like Jx, Tx, and TT-JJ.

It would be pretty bad to re-pop pre with those hands, wouldn't it? Maybe JJ is the 1 hand that wouldn't be a horrible 3-bet pre, but it's still pretty bad, his sizing is terrible, and it's a super, super hard hand to hold.

I do think you're on to something, though. Villain is probably either making a mistake pre-flop or on the turn. However, I think you have it backwards. Your average random villain is making a ton more terrible plays on the turn because people don't know how to play post-flop than they are pre-flop facing a UTG open relatively deep. Basically, I think villain's pre-flop 3-bet range is way more reliable than his turn betting range after getting checked to twice in a multi-way pot on an unusual texture.