Hey all, I'm currently going through a kinda gross downswing on ACR. I was just wondering if there is a way I can look at PT4 and figure out if I'm just running bad?

In all honesty, for mtts my abi is $42 roughly and I went from being up $8.5k after 300ish games to currently being down $7570 after 1165 games. Just wondering if I could be playing ok and just running really bad in spots or should I just move down and try to build up a roll at micros even though its hard to get great volume at say an abi of $5-15.

I would guess I'm probably playing a little too high variance in spots/ disregarding icm near money bubbles but just wondering if this downswing could be in a normal range for say a 10-30% roi player? I'm also playing too many tables most likely. I tend to play say 8-12 tables on sundays and feel i kinda have trouble making some decisions bc i'm always in a rush. i just find moving down stakes as difficult bc I'm not really like thrilled if i win a $5-20 mtt that isn't going to pay decent to normal stakes i have played.

Note: I'm prolly not +ev at my current buyin level even though i've had 2 coaches and do study mtts normally and review hhs from some top players at training site i sub. Losing say 5-10k really doesn't bother me as I have a solid career. Also my last poker coach told me to expect insane variance in fields 400+ players which I mean i guess is true but my graph is like a downslope when i see meh streamers having beautiful graphs that just go up with almost no downswings.

BTW in all honesty, I'm open to saying i might just not be good enough to beat my current level as i've never beating mid stakes in my life even though this is my first go around at midstakes mtts online. I beat $5-10 abi on tilt when i was first backed and in stable back prior to black friday. I was moving up stakes at the time but black friday prevented putting in solid volume at mid stakes.

help can someone respond. WTF is the point of 2+2 if people don't respond.

This is a really hard question to answer and probably requires at lot more info and observation than you could provide, which is, I think, why you haven't had any responses. You are in the best position to answer your question. If you honestly feel that your downswing is due to variance, then it probably is. But you need to be brutally honest with yourself -- you gave some good examples about how you could improve.

Now if your question is simply what's a large enough sample size to know if your results are "true" or what is typical variance, someone else will need to answer. I'm not a professional player (have a nice day job) and have played almost exclusively live until recently.

not really a helpful answer so maybe thats why people don't reply. I just don't understand how a person that studies can run so bad for 1.5-2k mtts (maybe a small tourny sample) when I see all of these ACR regs with upslope graphs and it doesn't seem like they are doing anything insane/ never had a coach etc.

For example, I see a regular today i remembered from past sites near black friday, MY hud has his numbers has a 15 vpip but hes killing on ACR and graph is a ski slope going up. How the f can someone have a vpip of 15-16 and be a winning player?? Am i supposed to turn into ultra nit

Jk, my impression from your posts over the last year is that you are an “all gas, no brakes” player. You seem to play every hand until the most volatile fashion and it’s seems to me that you play most hands for stacks. You mentioned your buddy’s vpip . What is yours for the same time period?

You can check this out in PT4...not sure how much it helps:
https://www.pokertracker.com/videos/...uck-bell-curve

and obv you can look at your C All-in Adj. on your graph.

Did your overall game (not results) improve after your coaching sessions? If your a RIO member, I would recommend that you also watch some 6max cash videos in order to improve your postflop game.

Yea that is true but are we not supposed to play aggro in mtts? I feel playing nitty is a mistake in most spots.

My vpip/pfr is around 22/14. I see regs with no variance graphs with similar
#s and tighter stats from my hud.

Btw punted a stack yesterday of 70bbs in mid stages of a small-mid stakes tourny by calling off 70bbs of a jam with AKo which was comically bad on my part after I open, v1 3bet, v2 Rips like 80-100 bbs. Just stupid on my part. V2 had AA lol. I might just take break from game and study. Also might go down to 4-6 tables as when I play 8+ I feel I make bad decisions bc I don’t think
About spots really.

Busted $630 on acr after getting 10-7 in against AQ from a bb defend in a 10-7-3-Q spot lmao where Villian has flush draw on turn also. Idk I might just take a break from the game bc it’s really messing with my mental state lately. Final 2 tables of a $109 last week and I run KK into AA for 1.3k while first is like 14k. Tournament poker is gross.

Average ROI?

If you're not waking up at 4am to study big-ass game trees you've run on a dedicated server, then studying more on your job in lieu of work, then studying more before dinner, then studying more before bed, where studying entails writing pages and pages of analysis and coming up with your own risky assumptions to test and being meticulously almost OCD-like in your organization and constantly reviewing your work and never taking anything--ANYTHING--for granted--and most importantly doing YOUR OWN abstractions for the concepts underlying the game, not just passively watching some videos, then you're not really STUDYING, you're merely "studying".

I can somewhat relate to this. When I knew very little about the game I played a very tight style, looking for slow structured events and playing relatively few hands. My ROI was something like 50% playing mostly low stakes with some high stakes up to $215 thrown in.

I began talking to some pros on Skype, started studying game theory a little and watching some coaching videos. Since then I've been pretty confused about how to play the game and guess I've been trying to badly play a sort of LAG style. Since this time I've had a ton of success in satellites but no success in the target tournaments and I've spewed an absolute ton.

I've just today started remembering my old style and thought of reverting back to a modified version of it. I think I was playing close to a good winning strategy - I actually used to widen my opening range when I realised that I was being adjusted to. I also used to play a lot of value hands passively to conceal strength/induce aggression, which I have done relatively rarely since I began studying.

Basically nothing that I've studied advocates playing the way I used to play, but nearly everything I've studied involves high stakes players who play each other regularly and need to be somewhat unexploitable. And I haven't studied enough of that to be much good at it, even if it were optimal in the games I play.

It really sucks because I've played multiple 1k's and 600's and 300's etc and a ton of 215's, 109's and 55's and it just feels like I've wasted most of the opportunities playing terrible poker.

I think that now I'm better off doing what I was doing before, which is just figuring the game out on my own - I mean no disrespect at all to the members of this forum that I Skype, since you are genius thinkers and great players - but I don't think that learning from others works for me and I do think that I need to figure things out on my own. That's not to say that I can't talk hands with people and watch coaching videos, but I do think that I need to be rooted in the strategies and philosophies that I figure out myself, rather than trying to execute a flawed understanding of what others have said.


So I guess my advice to you, OP, is to take very lightly what others have said is winning poker, what others stats are etc etc and start figuring out how to play the game on your own - using Pio and coaching as a supplement, not as an example to imitate. I hope this makes at least some sense and hopefully I haven't given you terrible advice. GL

The biggest MTT winners have amazing non showdown winnings. That's where the high ROI's come from - if you find yourself struggling to chip up against the field then you're probably not much of a winner in that game.

3:45am everyday...running sims on dedicated SERVERzzzzzz (that's right servers...plural.)



No job/family/gf...just a hamster. TOP DAT!

P.S. Welcome back to NITville wynn...we knew you'd be back (and nice post btw.)

I agree with Bubble, it's tough to say just based off the info that you provided. Large tournaments have INSANE variance. There was a thread a long time ago where a lot of the top pros at the time discussed their biggest downswings. There were many good players that had +300 BI downswings.

If you are posting on these forums and have been using coaches, I would imagine that you have to be a winner at that Buy-in (Although I can't speak to the level of competition on ACR, but I must imagine that at that buy-in level the competition is not fierce). Unless there are some situations that are huge leaks that you keep to yourself. Are you a huge station in some spots? Do you not bluff often enough?

The only things that I can suggest without a deeper dive being done
1. Review some of your tournaments (maybe pick a few an replay them in PT4)
2. Play more volume
3. Play smaller fields
4. Perhaps avoid some High variance spots (flips)

Nah I got a parrot, not a hamster.

Envy you guys. Have a job, wife, and 2 kids ... all of whom think I play too much, leaves little time for serious studying.

Ditto, barring the envy bit - my kids are my joy and I wouldn't have it any other way. Luckily I can choose work projects and take significant breaks between them if I wish

I certainly did not mean to suggest I would trade my kids for anything.

You don't need a solver to be a winning player. You need pre flop ranges, an understanding of how ranges work post flop, and an understanding of ICM. There are a number of good coaching sites out there that will teach you effective thinking post flop, and who have HH sections in their discord where you'll get actual good advice on whether your play was bad or not. Outside of that you just have to put in the volume playing. Variance is a beach.

In my honest perspective from seeing many of your posts which come off condescending and trollish, the problem is you and your attitude. You think you are always right, and you also overweight GTO and solvers vs exploitative play. This comment might seem harsh but I’m really trying to be helpful. You are right to ask people to back up their input with analysis, yet you shouldn’t be so dismissive to the responses. Otherwise yeah, you are just going to have to keep learning on your own, “the hard way”.

Boy, if I had feelings..

Your comment doesn't seem harsh, just objectively inaccurate. I have definitely posted in a condescending and trollish manner on occasions, but no I don't think I'm always right at all and no I don't overweight GTO and solvers over exploitative play at all - they go hand in hand. It's pretty difficult to tell somebody about themselves when you know them through a window of a measly few posts on an internet forum - I know myself first hand. I've regularly spoken privately with a handful of people from this forum over the last year and their input has been gold, but it hasn't translated to a better understanding of the game for me despite absolutely clairvoyant feedback. I just do better when I figure things out on my own.

Thanks for your post - I know it was well intentioned and if it were objectively accurate and I actually did believe the things you say I believe, then I'd simply hold my hands up and admit that these things are my problem, but they're not.

Eggs, you have like 100 mtts on ACR for the year. Maybe you should study a little less and play a little more.

JK my volume (which is deliberately low for the time being for a reason) has no relevance to your situation but since you opened the door:

As I've told multiple people off the forum I'm a very very methodical person and an incessant planner, sometimes to my detriment but overall to my benefit.

I have a very specific plan with my poker studying and a very specific time horizon for when I'm gonna increase my volume, rest assured since you seen so concerned, that time will come in a year and a half beginning in 2022.

Until then my goal is to get an additional 2,500 EARNEST (no BS) study hrs in, (beyond the already immense amt of time I've already put in over the last year and a half when I first committed myself to becoming as damn good a poker player as I can be). And at that point I feel pretty confident I can play at close to a semi-expert level.


Good thing poker success requires mere relative skill and not absolute skill, even after all that study time I'll probably be like a 10/100 skill-wise on an absolute scale.


Problem is most poker players are like a 0/100 or a 1/100 because most poker players are too dismissive of just how complex the game is, too arrogant of their current skills, too lazy and complacent to put in REAL work, and they think too much in the short term, and like addicts they allow the dopamine rush of being involved in poker to come from PLAYING poker instead of IMPROVING at poker and if you think embroiling yourself headlong in competition is the best way to improve you could not be more wrong.


Yeah you need to get your competition reps in here and there in the meantime but as with golfers or really any individualistic, competitive endeavor your money is made in the lab/practice range whatever metaphor you wanna use for studying.


Go ahead and ask a professional golfer when they spend most of their time. Or a pro tennis player. Or a world class chess player.


So maybe you should bellyache less, and post less wondering if you're a degen, and study more.

Oh and BTW, 300 BI is a Mickey Mouse losing streak.

That is a good and well thought out plan. I just think that 100 mtts is like a blip on the scale. I just can't believe you can't take out 1 day a week and play 20-40 mtts online. I think studying is great and all but I just don't understand the point if you are not playing. BTW no malice toward you, i'm sure your studying is much more effective than what I do (I just watch HHs of some good online pros and don't go through pio trees)

Is a 300 buyin downswing really mickey mouse? I see all of these pros recommend 200 buy-in bankroll for mtts. If I go through a 300-400 buyin DS, how can this be correct? They never say oh you might go through a massive downswing and bust your roll.


BTW just want to throw out some graphs our here of people I find are insane. Freetupan, preeminent_ez (not so much) , wsopboy93. I would guess there are a lot more but it seems like these players have minor comical downswings. I just wonder what is the secret to not going through a downswing is because I don't believe its studying. Allinpav went through a brutal downswing he spoke of (yes he plays the highest buy ins etc but field size probably isn't crazy). I just find ACR a little odd, I notice on certain sundays some players are always running super good in multiple mtts. I just find it a little odd. When I started playing heavily in January, I ran godly and actually won some flips. Now I wanna puke everytime i'm in a flip situation.

Variance goes in both directions man, why are you so preoccupied with who's running good?

I actually did play a session yesterday w/ one of those players and stacked them in a 240bb pot, he snapped AA no blocker on [Tc2c5h][3c][3h] after I xr flop and lost to a boat, a pretty awful way to lose a BI. This same player his folded 70% of his heads-up BB defense spots and walked 100% of his SB open opps. So basically spews on both ends of the spectrum--a station post and a nit pre.

I have HH with another of those players who completes SB and snaps a 30bb Iso ship w/ A9o, it's just never ever a snap in practice. Same player donks JJ (for value? for what?) on [2d2h9d][Qs][Qd] and loses to a flush

These are three spots I would NEVER spew in. Three spots that TBH speak volumes about their skill level. Remember though, if poker players were chess players they'd have an average ELO of like 900.

So in case youre wondering all these people are human and they have no "secret", in many cases they lack some pretty basic skills in some pretty easy spots.

It possible to run really really really good even over a few thousand events and possible to run really bad too.

Even outside of poker you have talentless clowns making $$$ via stupid useless **** like ******ed youtube videos, what makes you think some poker players can't experience 1/100th the amt of rungood those people do for some finite period of time?

You have a major problem with worrying about what others are doing. Step #1 is to ignore everything about "poker culture", it breeds that type of thinking. Really reason 1b I'm so fiercely independent with my studying, besides reason 1a which is it's just a sheerly better approach.

200 BI suggestion is ******ed if you're playing a ton and playing a lot of really big field events those people are just parroting what they heard from others (not uncommon in poker) and also have run good enough to not have a 200+ BI losing streak.

TBH 500 is a better number if you wanna be really comfortable.