Since I've never done this, no matter how flawed/incomplete this "analysis", I think it will help me improve greatly and I would appreciate it if someone just skimmed over it to see that there are no obvious mistakes (using combos in practice is new to me). Hopefully there is some value in this for OP as well.
Anyhow, in my previous post I wrote that I think it's "much much" more likely he has a flush than a full house. I'd just like to briefly list a few hands that beat us and a few that we beat to see if we have a clear call on the river (and back up my claim?). I would do a thorough analysis like sippin_criss said if I knew how but I really don't know where to start and how to develop the whole thought process in a coherent manner from beginning to end.
Anyway, we are faced with a bet on the river. OP has said villain is weak and usually gives up after a bluff attempt on the flop so he surely has a hand he likes a lot (he likes it so much that he would probably call an all in given the action).
Given the board let's list the combinations of hands that beat us:
22 (one deuce is on the board which leaves: ) -
3 combos
55 (two fives are on the board which leaves: ) -
1 combo
JJ (one jack is on the board which leaves: ) -
3 combos
88 (one eight is on the board which leaves: ) -
3 combos
52 -
6 combos
85 -
6 combos
J5 -
6 combos
On the river our hand is beat by 28 combos. Of these let's rule out 52 (utter trash preflop), 88 and JJ (would raise preflop?). That leaves us with 28-12=
16 combinations. If villain is a calling station, he could presumably play all of these hands like he did (perhaps he's not letting go of 2 pair on the turn even without a diamond).
However, he would also do this with many hands that we beat. I have no clue how to list them all, but let's just look at a few.
He would bet small on the flop with a 1-card flush draw (perhaps with a pair) and he would call a raise on the turn (
I has flush!), then bet the river (
I still has flush!) for "value".
There are 7 diamonds left (13 minus 4 on board, 2 in our hand): Kd, Qd, Td, 9d, 7d, 4d, 3d
9d 8x (pair + flush draw) -
3 combos
Td 8x (pair + flush draw) -
3 combos
Qd 8x (pair + flush draw) -
3 combos
Td 9x (overcards + flush draw) -
4 combos
8x 7d (pair + flush draw) -
3 combos
We are already at
16 combos.
Simply by taking a brief look at the combos that would make a flush by the turn, limp in preflop and bet small on the flop (blocker bet) we immediately see there are more combos of those than there are of full houses (not to mention 2 pair type hands or other hands that he could have).
Even if we presume that he would play all of the hands that beat us on the river (limping JJ, 52 ...) there are still more combos of hands that we beat.
To not make this a longer post as it already is ... Is there any value in my post? Is thinking like this a good start for a beginner? Are there any obvious mistakes?
Hope OP doesn't mind the hijack.