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How do I factor ICM into equity decisions? How do I factor ICM into equity decisions?

05-20-2012 , 12:35 PM
I know how SnG's are basically a science and how there are charts to follow. I never really considered putting too much thought into that though, b/c I have always been at levels where I'm already doing quite well. Even though I'm currently only playing freeroll SNGs at Merge, I want to find ways to improve my game.

I guess the best way to show what I'm talking about is an example (but the example isn't important, I just want to know how to analyze hands later):

Spoiler:
I found myself past the "bubble" (3 left) in a 10 player SnG where only top paid a cash prize and 2nd/3rd tickets. Blinds are 75/150 and through a serious of unfortunate events I have 932 before posting BB. Other 2 are pretty even about 4 and 5 K. Hero has K 6 both others limp and flop is 8 6 3

Checked to me in the big blind and I shoved, BTN called with T8 and held to knock me out in 3rd. I didn't think there was any question about how it played out, but wanted to crunch the numbers anyway the next morning (today)


So to determine if it's correct to shove a flop (or at least one where the only betting option is a shove) I assigned hand ranges that villains would have on the flop and then of that, ones that would call a shove.

Spoiler:
In this case I put BTN on about 81.9% limping and SB top 62% minus top 5%. And then calling a shove I put BTNs range at 43.1% (52.6% of original limp range) and SB 24.1% or 38.9% of original. Both consisted a lot of flush draws and top pair combos (but BTNs range is wider just on my observations on the players during the game).


I then just basically did a Punnett square or "FOIL" or whatever you want to call it to find the % of the time I get Fold-Fold, Call-Fold, Fold-Call, and Call-Call and stoved my hand against the ranges in each case to find out equity.

Spoiler:
In this case 29%, 32%, 18%, and 21% for each of those options and 100%, 52%,41%, and 24% equities respectively. Just multiplying through I found it to be strictly speaking +199 chips EV


The thing is it's really easy (though somewhat time consuming) to plug the numbers in and calculate EV. But I know it varies a lot when figuring in ICM. But I haven't played around with it enough to know how to figure it in. Is there a quick math trick to know? or good summary article/thread to read? Or is there just some software I need to download? Thanks for making it this far
Spoiler:
extra kudos if you read the spoilers too
.

tl;dr (cuz it definitely needs one). How do you pencil and paper (and Stove) calculations of EV decisions in SnGs to keep ICM in mind?
How do I factor ICM into equity decisions? Quote
05-20-2012 , 01:45 PM
Use an icm calc to figure out how much equity you gain or lose with all possible outcomes of each decision. Then put opponents on ranges and figure out how often theyll call your shove, and how often youll win when called vs their calling range.

The best thing to do is to get good at estimating icm tax (ratio between how much winning chips helps you to how much losing those same chips helps you) and then just putting people on ranges and doing the math in your head.
How do I factor ICM into equity decisions? Quote
05-20-2012 , 02:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rusemandingo
Use an icm calc to figure out how much equity you gain or lose with all possible outcomes of each decision. Then put opponents on ranges and figure out how often theyll call your shove, and how often youll win when called vs their calling range.

The best thing to do is to get good at estimating icm tax (ratio between how much winning chips helps you to how much losing those same chips helps you) and then just putting people on ranges and doing the math in your head.
I mean that's pretty much what I was asking, but do I just google ICM calculator? Is there a particular one most use? I understand the concept of ICM tax, but I don't know details because I haven't seen it applied. How would I go about calculating it? I've done a little search around, but haven't found anything tangible enough that I can actually apply on my own to situations and number crunching.
How do I factor ICM into equity decisions? Quote
05-21-2012 , 11:11 AM
Somebody on 2+2 made a program called "prizepoolequity". You should find it through a search or google. Then you can enter the stacksizes and the payout distribution and it shows the ICM Factors. Or you use a ICM calculator and do this stuff on your own but it takes much more time than with this program.
How do I factor ICM into equity decisions? Quote

      
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