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Old 04-21-2014, 05:39 PM   #1
unoturbo999
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Hotter $11 final table - opinions please

Final table - 7 left, villain 12/12/13 over 74 hands but didn't seem to really have any clue with multiple terrible shoves/calls leading up to the final table. He tanked for a while before pushing.

Payouts:
1st: $13,439.29
2nd: $9,851.60
3rd: $6,717.00
4th: $4,513.82
5th: $3,582.40
6th: $2,686.80
7th: $1,791.20

Opinions please:

Poker Stars, $10 Buy-in (250,000/500,000 blinds, 62,500 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 4,515,855 (9 bb)
Hero (BB): 5,297,457 (10.6 bb)
MP1: 1,939,646 (3.9 bb)
MP2: 543,546 (1.1 bb)
MP3: 5,799,380 (11.6 bb)
CO: 4,785,738 (9.6 bb)
BTN: 3,986,378 (8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A J
5 folds, SB raises to 4,453,355 and is all-in

Hero??
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Old 04-21-2014, 06:07 PM   #2
LoNgMan
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Re: Hotter $11 final table - opinions please

Pretty much a snap fold for me here with a 4bb and 1bb stack at the table. Kind of ICM suicide when 5th place pays pretty much double of 7th.
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Old 04-21-2014, 08:24 PM   #3
MountainBum
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Re: Hotter $11 final table - opinions please

Quote:
Originally Posted by LoNgMan View Post
Pretty much a snap fold for me here with a 4bb and 1bb stack at the table. Kind of ICM suicide when 5th place pays pretty much double of 7th.
+1 and I doubt hes ever that light here given your reads.
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Old 04-21-2014, 09:18 PM   #4
lukeluky18
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Re: Hotter $11 final table - opinions please

fold, next hand is 4bb on bb so face him all-in if fold to blinds, after the shorts will gone, maybe somebody extra except them, try to make a deal instead of playing super lotto
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Old 04-22-2014, 01:43 AM   #5
Puzo
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Re: Hotter $11 final table - opinions please

TurbosnapICMfold.
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Old 04-22-2014, 01:50 AM   #6
jonnyshap
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results?
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Old 04-22-2014, 03:21 AM   #7
unoturbo999
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Re: Hotter $11 final table - opinions please

Before I give the results - how wide would his range need to be before this becomes a call (if it ever does becomes a call)?

Also, we have villain (barely) covered so should still be able to ladder up at least 1 spot on the pay ladder if we call and lose.

Finally, winning this hand should pretty much lock up a top 2 finish.
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Old 04-22-2014, 04:11 AM   #8
Babanka
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Re: Hotter $11 final table - opinions please

ICM
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Old 04-22-2014, 06:03 AM   #9
Parvex
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Re: Hotter $11 final table - opinions please

I made some calcs yesterday with ICMizer, can't remember the exact values (and have no more ICMizer trials left for today) but I think, once he shoves more than 20% or 25% you can probably call profitably. The future value of a big stack might add some additional benefit.

Also relevant: Do you expect him to tank w/ the top of his range?
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Old 04-22-2014, 06:00 PM   #10
unoturbo999
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Re: Hotter $11 final table - opinions please

Thanks for the thoughts so far.

I didn't expect him to tank with the top of his range - I read it as weakness given previous play.

Thanks for the ICM link Babanka - are the blinds the wrong way around? When I run the same calculations I get a slightly different result and the blinds look different.

Results below - any further comments?

    Poker Stars, $10 Buy-in (250,000/500,000 blinds, 62,500 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    SB: 4,515,855 (9 bb)
    Hero (BB): 5,297,457 (10.6 bb)
    MP1: 1,939,646 (3.9 bb)
    MP2: 543,546 (1.1 bb)
    MP3: 5,799,380 (11.6 bb)
    CO: 4,785,738 (9.6 bb)
    BTN: 3,986,378 (8 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with A J
    5 folds, SB raises to 4,453,355 and is all-in, Hero calls 3,953,355

    Flop: (9,344,210) 6 4 7 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
    Turn: (9,344,210) K (2 players, 1 is all-in)
    River: (9,344,210) 2 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

    Spoiler:
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    Old 04-23-2014, 04:15 AM   #11
    Parvex
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    Re: Hotter $11 final table - opinions please

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by unoturbo999 View Post
    I didn't expect him to tank with the top of his range - I read it as weakness given previous play.
    Then its an even clearer call imo. With him shoving 25% (incl. the top of his range) AJo is slightly +$EV to call here.

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by unoturbo999 View Post
    Thanks for the ICM link Babanka - are the blinds the wrong way around? When I run the same calculations I get a slightly different result and the blinds look different.
    What did you get? ICMizer gives me 81% SB shoving and BB 22% calling iirc.
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    Old 04-23-2014, 05:31 AM   #12
    mylifeisamess91
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    Re: Hotter $11 final table - opinions please

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by unoturbo999 View Post
    Thanks for the thoughts so far.

    I didn't expect him to tank with the top of his range - I read it as weakness given previous play.

    Thanks for the ICM link Babanka - are the blinds the wrong way around? When I run the same calculations I get a slightly different result and the blinds look different.

    Results below - any further comments?

      Poker Stars, $10 Buy-in (250,000/500,000 blinds, 62,500 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: 4,515,855 (9 bb)
      Hero (BB): 5,297,457 (10.6 bb)
      MP1: 1,939,646 (3.9 bb)
      MP2: 543,546 (1.1 bb)
      MP3: 5,799,380 (11.6 bb)
      CO: 4,785,738 (9.6 bb)
      BTN: 3,986,378 (8 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A J
      5 folds, SB raises to 4,453,355 and is all-in, Hero calls 3,953,355

      Flop: (9,344,210) 6 4 7 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      Turn: (9,344,210) K (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: (9,344,210) 2 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      Spoiler:
      LOL WHAT IS THIS I DONT EVEN......

      i mean you got in your money good but got owned by a deuce seven... what can you do about it
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      Old 04-24-2014, 03:42 AM   #13
      unoturbo999
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      Re: Hotter $11 final table - opinions please

      Quote:
      Originally Posted by Parvex View Post
      Then its an even clearer call imo. With him shoving 25% (incl. the top of his range) AJo is slightly +$EV to call here.



      What did you get? ICMizer gives me 81% SB shoving and BB 22% calling iirc.
      Can you clarify those numbers? Does that mean that the SB should be shoving the top 81% of hands and I should be calling with the top 22% of hands? If so, shoving 72s isn't as much of a mistake as I though it was (top 87%). But given that he shoved this I would assume that he is shoving 100% here which means we should be calling even wider still.

      Thanks for the input guys - FWIW I still came back from this to finish 2nd behind this luck box - he knocked out the players in both 5th and 4th by hitting the river with less than 15% equity. When we got heads up he had a 2.5:1 chip lead and I lost the first flip (K6s<22).
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      Old 04-24-2014, 04:06 AM   #14
      DrLifeIsGood
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      Re: Hotter $11 final table - opinions please

      Quote:
      FWIW I still came back from this to finish 2nd behind this luck box
      Grats on the nice score. I woulda folded this, tho, with the blinds coming through the two tiny stacks the next two hands, but I think it's actually closer than the first posters seem to think (because we wouldn't be out if we lost and the value of having a 20x stack given the other stacksizes is just so great).
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      Old 04-24-2014, 04:12 AM   #15
      Puzo
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      Re: Hotter $11 final table - opinions please

      Quote:
      Originally Posted by DrLifeIsGood View Post
      Grats on the nice score. I woulda folded this, tho, with the blinds coming through the two tiny stacks the next two hands, but I think it's actually closer than the first posters seem to think.
      +1. Congrats OP. Solid score. If those calcs are right, I was so much wrong with my gut feel. I thought that we can't call without premiums when there is that 1.1bb stack and other guy with very short stack.
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      Old 04-24-2014, 09:48 AM   #16
      LoNgMan
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      Re: Hotter $11 final table - opinions please

      Yeah, guess I was off abit too. However, just feels so gross when you end up losing this and end up losing out at least an extra $900.
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      Old 04-24-2014, 08:59 PM   #17
      HUHandEH
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      Re: Hotter $11 final table - opinions please

      You Rock
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      Old 04-25-2014, 01:00 AM   #18
      Dragons_Egg
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      Re: Hotter $11 final table - opinions please

      Nice run. I'm jelly.

      I'm sure ICM says this is a fold. But ICM doesn't account for what you can do with the chips gained if you win. Looking at the stack sizes you could defiantly do some raping & pillaging if you win this hand. Given this and also that your read is that the SB is a bit spewy, i'm inclined to say call in this spot and run good (which you didn't, so you obv need to work on that )
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      Old 04-25-2014, 10:59 AM   #19
      dartagnan180
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      Re: Hotter $11 final table - opinions please

      Fold for me im also folding Aq here and AKo
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      Old 04-30-2014, 02:06 PM   #20
      Cbrewer4
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      Re: Hotter $11 final table - opinions please

      Good read and call, but I do lean towards the original posters and say ICM makes this a fold. It sucks but in that spot the SB has ridiculous FE and can push extremely wide plus you get to push on the small stacks next and hopefully knock them out so that is fun! Sorry about that run out
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      Old 04-30-2014, 02:33 PM   #21
      KansasCT
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      Re: Hotter $11 final table - opinions please

      gotta say it's pretty ballsy to shove there with 72 at a final table like this one
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