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Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments

10-06-2010 , 11:43 PM
Disclaimer: I know I only have a few posts here, and this may sound like a giant rant/whine, but in reality I am looking for advice or discussion about how to improve my gameplay and increase my profits at these games. I'm not looking for replies such as "play tournaments with a better structure" or "play cash games". I enjoy live tournament play, and these are the only tournaments nearby for me to play. Also if this post is in the wrong place, I apologize.

I've been playing at a local casino that runs several small buyin (<$100) tournaments per week with different styles (rebuy, bounty, etc) for about a month and a half now since I moved here. As you could expect the play is atrocious, and so is the blind structure.

Most tournaments start with 3000 chips, but the rebuy's start with 2000, and the deepstack with 10,000. These tournaments field 50-80 players(tournament's cap out at 80 players + alternates).

Blind structure is 20min blinds. The deepstack tournament adds in antes at 100/200 (play 100/200 then 100/200 with 25 ante) but the other tournaments do not. Blind structure is as follows:

25/25
25/50
50/100
100/200
150/300
250/500
400/800
600/1200
1000/2000
2000/4000
etc.

So the problem is that I've played ~3 tournaments per week, and I've cashed (chopped -- most chops happen at the full final table at 9 people) only 2 tournaments. The frustrating part is that I've placed anywhere from 10th-24th all but maybe 3-4 times. Is the structure just keeping me down or is there a potential leak in my game that's keeping me from accumulating more chips around 3 or 4 tables left? By the time it gets to 2 tables it's mostly all in or fold for everyone because of the blinds being so high in relation to stacks.

I feel I'm playing pretty strongly, and I feel that in general I'm one of the strongest players in the field every tournament I play there as there's really only maybe 5-6 players aside from myself that have an idea about tournament dynamics and pot/implied odds. That's why I'm getting frustrated because I feel like I should be making a killing at these tournament, but I'm missing something that would otherwise be pushing me through to the $$ far more often than I currently am.

These players are limping and calling preflop raises all day. I think you have an idea of the players I'm up against. I'm just playing ABC poker for the most part..nothing fancy at all. If anyone has suggestions/advice please pass it along. I'd also be more than willing to discuss these tournaments and specific hands as well either here in the thread or through PM's. Thanks in advance for any advice you guys provide. It's much appreciated.

Last edited by Rapini; 10-07-2010 at 02:18 PM. Reason: Moved from B&M to MTT Strategy.
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-06-2010 , 11:56 PM
ABC poker is not winning poker for donkament. Donkament is all about aggression, isolation, and position. It'll be difficult to find materials on how to win donkament, because it is simply what it is, a donkament.

Play it for fun or don't play it at all.
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-07-2010 , 12:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shove2win
ABC poker is not winning poker for donkament. Donkament is all about aggression, isolation, and position.
+1. If you're a reg, you should know who the bad players are by now. Isolate them chip up against them.

Also - how often do you expect to cash? What is the return you are getting on your buyin when you chop? If you're not the short stack, why are you giving in to pressure to chop? Hold out until the short stacks are out.
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-07-2010 , 02:20 AM
Sounds like you have a good start on what the problem might be.

ABC poker.

Maybe you're too worried about your tournament life, and need to call someone light because it appears to be the right decision.

Do you have a good idea of shoving ranges based on opponents prior plays and bets?

Maybe raise a little more than you normally would in the earlier levels and create an aggro image for yourself which would ideally get some of your bigger hands paid off during the later levels that you're having trouble accumulating chips in.
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-07-2010 , 02:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KMC1828
I've been playing... for about a month and a half now since I moved here.

These tournaments field 50-80 players(tournament's cap out at 80 players + alternates).

So the problem is that I've played ~3 tournaments per week, and I've cashed (chopped -- most chops happen at the full final table at 9 people) only 2 tournaments.
So they pay 9 spots out of an average of, say, 70 players. You've played for 6 weeks about 3 times a week, or 18 times. You've cashed twice.

Welcome to the unpleasant world of tournament variance. Exactly how often do you think you are supposed to cash? They are paying 9 out of 70 players (13%). You have cashed 2 out of 18 tries (11%). Congrats. You're running average.
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-07-2010 , 03:23 AM
something else to think about with the whole ABC thing... live poker you're going to see a whole lot less hands than online. With 20 minute levels you're probably looking at about 10ish hands PER LEVEL... very tough to just wait for rockets and hope. The lower number of hands in a live tourney is also going to increase your variance.
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-07-2010 , 03:31 AM
the 2 of 18 cashes are going to be spread across the cash range. Your math indicates he should theoretically have had 2 even stacks at 11%. Average would be an evenly distributed finish position within the available cash range. Not that i disagree with your premise, but pointing out a fallacy of lumping "cashes" into an evaluatory scheme.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bav
So they pay 9 spots out of an average of, say, 70 players. You've played for 6 weeks about 3 times a week, or 18 times. You've cashed twice.

Welcome to the unpleasant world of tournament variance. Exactly how often do you think you are supposed to cash? They are paying 9 out of 70 players (13%). You have cashed 2 out of 18 tries (11%). Congrats. You're running average.
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-07-2010 , 04:06 AM
I would shove at any late position when the blind gets too big and there aren't any limpers or strong players. Read for expressions, big hands usually have some sort of tells from these donkament players.

Obviously you have to be lucky to win these tournaments, and the worst thing you could do is to be low stack waiting for hands. I enjoy stack set miners with my crap hands simply because I have so many more chips.

I had a streak of cashing over 50% of donkaments that have 40 players or more. But soon I realized that I can cash these things about 100x and still be barely even. There isn't enough money in these donkaments unless you "win" them at a good number of times. So there's your second mistake, you chop.
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-07-2010 , 11:14 AM
i think people over-estimate the edge one can have in tournaments with short stacks and fast structure.

a lot of the play in these tournaments is usually with stacks smaller than 10bb where people ship it in pre-flop. off course the recreational players play atrocious, but you can't make a horrible mistake when shipping 10bb in pre.

also, you probably pay 20% juice or something in that ballpark and therefore need a 20% ROI to break even. (ROI on your net tournament fee without juice that is. ROI is usually calculated on the gross tournament fee including juice, i just wanted to make a point about the high juice).
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-07-2010 , 11:43 AM
As others here are saying, ABC does not work in low buy in tournaments. When you sit down at a tournament table your first line of thought should be who you can steal from. Your second line of thought should be, who is going to try to steal from me?
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-07-2010 , 11:50 AM
Read "The Poker Tournament Formula" by Arnold Snyder. It is the bible of small buy-in tournaments.
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-07-2010 , 11:53 AM
Typical tournament pays top 10% of places. OP has played ~18 tourneys and cashed twice.

What was the problem, again?
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-07-2010 , 12:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanBostick
Typical tournament pays top 10% of places. OP has played ~18 tourneys and cashed twice.

What was the problem, again?

Probably feels like he keeps coming up just short of the monney and gets blinded off in late stages/has to pick a spot to avoid getting blinded off.

You know, what all TAG players go through until they realize that the big stacks have been bullying them since the field got cut down to half.
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-07-2010 , 12:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shove2win
I had a streak of cashing over 50% of donkaments that have 40 players or more. But soon I realized that I can cash these things about 100x and still be barely even. There isn't enough money in these donkaments unless you "win" them at a good number of times. So there's your second mistake, you chop.
Is chopping really a mistake? If you're cashing 50% of the time I find it hard to believe you're not making a profit unless you finished JUST in the money EVERY time, in which case advising against chopping is nutty. The final tables at these things are more of a lottery than anything else. Perhaps OP would be better served to chop with 4-6 people left, but I don't see chopping as a mistake in general. Am I crazy?
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-07-2010 , 12:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanBostick
Typical tournament pays top 10% of places. OP has played ~18 tourneys and cashed twice.

What was the problem, again?
Quote:
Originally Posted by joansing
Probably feels like he keeps coming up just short of the monney and gets blinded off in late stages/has to pick a spot to avoid getting blinded off.

You know, what all TAG players go through until they realize that the big stacks have been bullying them since the field got cut down to half.
If OP's performing as well as can be expected, what OP feels like is immaterial.
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-07-2010 , 02:05 PM
It's definitely possible to beat the rake at $100 tournaments. And in some ways the variance isn't as bad as the bigger tournaments since they almost always get chopped at some point, often before the final table even.

Second the recommendation for Poker Tournament Formula. You'll be playing against people with either no concept of the strategies needed for tournament poker, or people who read Harrington and don't realize his advice only works for tournaments with 45 minute or longer blind levels.
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-07-2010 , 02:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAndy500
Is chopping really a mistake? If you're cashing 50% of the time I find it hard to believe you're not making a profit unless you finished JUST in the money EVERY time, in which case advising against chopping is nutty. The final tables at these things are more of a lottery than anything else. Perhaps OP would be better served to chop with 4-6 people left, but I don't see chopping as a mistake in general. Am I crazy?
The low buy-in's they have here are typically between 30-50 dollars. If I cash, I get somewhere between 60 - 400 dollars. In the low end, it's almost meaningless because I barely make enough to cover the original buy-in plus one. Simple math would say that if I cash $60 dollars on average for a $30 buy in, I would have to win at least 50% of the time just to BREAK EVEN. Given the structure, $60 is actually a good average, but 50% is almost impossible.

Obviously if the game is more juicy, there would be more sharks. Part of the reason to play these donkaments is that they're easy to beat and fun, thus with reasons above, donkaments are difficult to be profitable.

Another thing I usually noticed is that when someone runs hot early in the tournament, he/she typically runs hot throughout. So if I am hitting cards in a given tournament, worst thing I could do is to chop and reduce my winning. Unless I have 1 chip left, or somewhere close to that, I do not like chopping my profit away.
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-07-2010 , 03:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shove2win
Another thing I usually noticed is that when someone runs hot early in the tournament, he/she typically runs hot throughout. So if I am hitting cards in a given tournament, worst thing I could do is to chop and reduce my winning.
if this is not a level, you sir, are ******ed.

there is no such thing as a rush. every hand is independent. period.
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-07-2010 , 03:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shove2win
The low buy-in's they have here are typically between 30-50 dollars. If I cash, I get somewhere between 60 - 400 dollars. In the low end, it's almost meaningless because I barely make enough to cover the original buy-in plus one. Simple math would say that if I cash $60 dollars on average for a $30 buy in, I would have to win at least 50% of the time just to BREAK EVEN. Given the structure, $60 is actually a good average, but 50% is almost impossible.
Damn, that is a pretty weak payout structure. So if you put down $50 the most you can win is $400? I chopped with 11 people (12 was ITM) last weekend in a turbo and took home 12 times the buy-in (almost ten times buy-in + fee).

My point was more that the final table in a tournament with ridiculous levels is pretty much a lottery. If you accepted the premise that it was entirely random what place you come in at the final table, your long term results would be the same whether or not you chopped at every final table.
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-07-2010 , 04:26 PM
It is a weak structure, and most donkaments have crappy structure like this, thus I wouldn't play the crap for anything but for fun.
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-07-2010 , 04:41 PM
grunch, judging by the length of your post you need to shove more and think less.
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-07-2010 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shove2win
It is a weak structure, and most donkaments have crappy structure like this, thus I wouldn't play the crap for anything but for fun.
this...and...

Quote:
Originally Posted by areaman
grunch, judging by the length of your post you need to shove more and think less.
this...and...

Quote:
Originally Posted by avaholic
if you are a regular learn the cocktail waitresses names and make sure you are a good tipper so they bring your beers quickly.
this
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-07-2010 , 07:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koko the munkey
Read "The Poker Tournament Formula" by Arnold Snyder. It is the bible of small buy-in tournaments.
Will be checking at Barnes and Noble a little later tonight to see if they have it there, if not I will be ordering this. Thanks for the recommendation, and thanks Mat for the second on the recommendation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by joansing
When you sit down at a tournament table your first line of thought should be who you can steal from. Your second line of thought should be, who is going to try to steal from me?
I will definitely be thinking a lot more about these in the future.

Quote:
Originally Posted by joansing
(OP)Probably feels like he keeps coming up just short of the monney and gets blinded off in late stages/has to pick a spot to avoid getting blinded off.

You know, what all TAG players go through until they realize that the big stacks have been bullying them since the field got cut down to half.
That's pretty much hitting the nail on the head. As for the 2nd part, that's more than likely well-deserved jab at me touche` sir.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Steven Segal's Dad
Sounds like you have a good start on what the problem might be.

ABC poker.

Maybe you're too worried about your tournament life, and need to call someone light because it appears to be the right decision.

Do you have a good idea of shoving ranges based on opponents prior plays and bets?

Maybe raise a little more than you normally would in the earlier levels and create an aggro image for yourself which would ideally get some of your bigger hands paid off during the later levels that you're having trouble accumulating chips in
Good ideas for me to think about more in depth overall about the calling light and shoving ranges. Shoving ranges for these players is pretty damn light as you can imagine with a pool of atrocious players (save the ~5 players that have a clue).

I think my main leak is not picking up enough pots in the mid blind levels (100/200 to 400/800 or so) before the blinds catch up on everybody. I think if I do that, I'll be able to put myself in a better position to be making money more often.

I appreciate the input so far. You guys have given me quite a bit to think about.

As for my expectations that some people asked about, I'm currently cashing in roughly 11% of my games, and I want to and think I should be closer to 20%.

One thing I would like more input on is chopping. My main question is at what rate should I be accepting chops (chop payout vs. original buyin)?
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-07-2010 , 07:49 PM
With due deference to our hosts, there is a conflict between the ICM based theory that because of skewed payout structures additional chips have less value (which is certainly arithmetically true) with the strategic fact that building a stack that can withstand a couple of bad beats greatly enhances your chances of reaching the top payouts. (not to mention Gigabets stack theory!)

Conclusion: shove more and think less!
Hitting a wall at low limit live tournaments Quote
10-07-2010 , 07:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KMC1828
As for my expectations that some people asked about, I'm currently cashing in roughly 11% of my games, and I want to and think I should be closer to 20%.

One thing I would like more input on is chopping. My main question is at what rate should I be accepting chops (chop payout vs. original buyin)?
forget shooting for 20%. That is up to card gods. Focus on improving the quality of your 11% (or even 8%).

As far as accepting chops, assuming you are playing within your roll, you accept a chop when its +EV! Easy to say, huh?

Not quite as easy in practice, but there are two extremes that are pretty easy to identify. When you are a short stack and getting way above your ICM value. This usually happens when theres an advance agreement to chop evenly when it reaches a fixed number of players.

The other extreme is when you have a massive stack and are at least as good as the rest of the decently stacked players. Now your edge is greater than ICM would dictate and any chop that isnt close to the first place prize is a bad deal.
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