So villain has been at the table for 16 hands and has stats of 25/21, with 0% 3b. I know not enough stats to draw anything from. When I open here I have to be 40% against his 3b range. The reason I think this is a fold is the fact that I have raised a 20BB stack from EP/MP1 so is this player really shoving AJ here? If I can't put any hands in that I dominate, should this be a fold?

I'm guessing that everyone is going to say this is a 'standard' get in, but I'm struggling to see why it's standard. If I have 40% equity that means I lose 60% of the time. We're 70 people left in a 2,087 runner $3.30 MTT on Stars. I guess what I'm looking for is arguments for and against calling to see if anyone can make me see why this is a call.

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $3 Buy-in (2,000/4,000 blinds, 500 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

UTG+2: 85,929 (21.5 bb)
Hero (MP1): 79,006 (19.8 bb)
MP2: 94,402 (23.6 bb)
MP3: 66,974 (16.7 bb)
CO: 109,764 (27.4 bb)
BTN: 240,948 (60.2 bb)
SB: 93,183 (23.3 bb)
BB: 42,141 (10.5 bb)
UTG+1: 233,290 (58.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q A
2 folds, Hero raises to 8,640, MP2 folds, MP3 raises to 66,474 and is all-in, 5 folds

I think the fact that you are willing to fold out nearly the top of your range makes this a very profitable spot to shove hands like AJ.

second with you already put into the pot you need ~40 % to call the shove here equity wise. thats rough someone could do the exact math i'm sure.

you can't be afraid to flip at these stages of the MTT. winning pots like this gives you a big stack where you can apply pressure and use that stack to leverage other players down the stretch to set yourself up for a big stack at the final table to make a run at a top 3 finish and more important a win.

the only hands that dominate you are AA, KK, QQ, AK. He's shoving alot wider than that. 77+, AJ, KQ etc and some players have some spazz in them so it can be wider.

raise folding this hand with your stack is very explotiable and going forward in your poker career will become very exploitable against good competition if you ever want to rise up in stakes. its kinda fundamental poker not to fold this without a really solid read and we don't have that about this palyer in a 16 hand sample.

I also think you can at least put AJ in villains range.

Giving villain a range of something like AQ+, 99+ is worst case scenario stuff.

Because villain is still essentially a random he can still turn up with hands that you wouldn't expect.

How have you been playing since villain has been at your table?

this is definitely a call but I'm interested to see what you think a random's shoving range is in this spot that makes it so you're only 40%?

This. Shortstacked BB should tighten OP opening range some, but we have no idea if villain is paying attention to that. Anyway villains shove range must be very tight if we have only 40%

Hand 0: 52.150% 46.96% 05.19% 299100528 33081330.00 { 55+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 47.850% 42.66% 05.19% 271713900 33081330.00 { AQs }

Nitty range

Hand 0: 40.940% 38.04% 02.90% 156333684 11909100.00 { AQs }
Hand 1: 59.060% 56.16% 02.90% 230801076 11909100.00 { 77+, AJs+, AKo }

Maybe there are some nits who shove as tight as that range?

I'd fold if i don't have strong reads on V IMO

if ive seen villian raise/folding to 3bet quite often that helps or if ive seen villian 3bet ep or mp opens that help's , the more info we have the easier our descion.

this really is a close spot though....

yes with 20bb stack aq is pretty much close to the NUTS , but i think folding is fine if villian has been playing TAG and has a tight range when 3bet shoving.

villian has just over 15bb , and a good player/regular will prolly jam over ep raise with hands like jj+ aqs+ in these spots

whats your image as well? how does villain perceive you? the dynamics between you both this all helps....

neither do i think its standard to be calling a shove ....i'd lean towards folding as much as i hate it here.

Bunch of nits itt. Fist pump get it in. Your suited and should be doing this if off suit. It's not like villains is 0/0 if he is I still shove/rip his face off. Bunch of wussies itt. u all piss sitting down too? Sorry I mean tinkle.

If you fold here just turn off your computer

Try to at least productive with the comments gentleman. He's asking for advice. I understand why people struggle with spots like these. We all have. Ask anymore questions you have OP.

I piss sitting down not because I'm a "wussie" but because I'm whipped.

I LoL'D

ya I'm just playing around.


this is also a good spot to just shove it's un-exploitable and a good time for it. Then you don't have to worry about talking yourself out of it. if I open here it's to induce. if you're struggling to see how this is standard then I'm assuming you're playing pretty nitty and as the first poster said it makes wider shoves profitable.

Gl op

This ^
So don´t OPR AQs and fold to a 3 bet jamm with youre stack

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