Heavy icm problem
1500 entries
Final 3 people

Btn 25bb
Sb hero 35bb
Bb 16bb fish

Btn open 2bb
Sb KhTc 3bet 7bb
Bb fold

Flop 9J3hh
Sb c bet 3bb
Btn call

Turn 3h

Spr is 0.7 on turn

I jam turn to make max pressure to btn

He tank call with AJo no heart

I hit the river and later on ship the event

But I think this hand is worth to review

Btn is a tight reg

What is your play on Preflop , flop, turn?

Open for discuss,many thanks


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If you can please edit this to remove villain’s hand and the final result. You will get much better analysis if this info is excluded. After all, you didn’t have this info when you shoved the turn. If you want everyone else to accurately evaluate your decision, they should have the same info you did when you made it.

As for your decision, I would not think it bad. You do have suited heart hands in your range. Your K blocks combos like KQhh and KJhh that could be in villain’s range (I am assuming he 4! With AKhh). You do have a good bit of equity with your combo draw to the 2nd nut flush plus gutshot straight. Villain could plausibly have Ahx here though, so that equity should be discounted a bit. Villain should not be calling wide here (I’m assuming a significant pay jump from 3rd to 2nd) given ICM implications, so you should have good fold equity. IMO it’s not a bad spot to bluff shove.

I'm good with the turn jam. We improved on our flop bet and its like 75% pot which is not polarizing.

On the flop my cbet size would be about 5 bb. 3 bb looks a lot like a blocking bet miss. Still Villain didn't jam with AJ which is fortunate.

The hand looks fine...

One tiny quibble. The ICM is not as heavy as one would think. It is fairly large in $, but then so are the prizes at this point.

ICM is heaviest when you are on the FT bubble. As you make the FT and get shorter, it decreases (to no ICM at all heads up).

https://www.google.com/imgres?q=icm%...BTwQM3oECBMQAA

Should our 3-bets be smaller in this spot since they need more equity to call (ICM) and we don't have to risk as much to get folds.