Hey guys,

Hopefully you can help me out with this. Last 66 in a Big 3,30. Villain made 13k profit over 7k games played. We haven't been long on the same table but we have been in a BTN(him) vs SB(me) 3betting fight 2 times already. I took the first pot down, he the second.

Now my question is. Would you call him or is this a spot where he is just never bluffing? My thought process. On the turn I put him on 33, 88, 99, 97 and other 9x, TT, maybe JJ, T8 or a hand /w 2 clubs. With a barrel into 2 people from UTG I expect him to fold all his 7x, expect 77 or A7. But since I have 2 aces. A7 is very unlikely.

I had to pay 340k to win 1.150k. Now my head said this is a call because of the odds and the hands I did put him on OTT. But the thing is. My guts says he is just never bluffing in this spot. x/c, x/c and than just jamming OOP on the river. Is this a fold or do I have to call while I puke?




Thanks in advance!

flop bet needs to be bigger.

this isnt the type of bluff good winning players make. Because he called out of the bb his range can be quite wide. for me it's a fold

if he was a losing player this would be a lot closer

Agree with Captain Hindsight, post-flop sizing needs to be larger but once on that river I guess you've got to fold. He isn't jamming other overpairs or with a 9, he's either just hit trips/ boat or has a busted flush/ straight draw.

But as I don't think he shoves his busted draws there very often (and he probably plays any decent draw differently anyway) all that is left in his range are hands that beat you. In the end you're getting 810k for your 340k, not 1,150k as you said. So you'd need to win about 29% of the time to be breakeven cEV and I don't think he's bluffing that much (if it were 1,150 it'd be about 23% of the time, but I still don't think that's +cEV)

In terms of ranging him I wouldn't necessarily agree that the bet on the flop is folding out many of his 7s, the bet is so small on a board that doesn't hit your range very well and he is getting great odds to continue. With that sizing I'd have imagined you were trying to keep weak one pair hands and draws in, not expecting to just take it down? Maybe he'd have given it up on the turn though

Out of interest what were you doing if he checks the river?

Thanks for the comments guys.

What would be your reason to make the sizing bigger on the flop?

That was exactly what I thought by making that bet sizing on the flop Nixie. On the turn I made it 1/3 of my stack to make him fold those weaker pair hands and give him the opportunity to jam his draws. Is it a mistake at my side to expect him to fold his 7x? I feel like it is very rare for him to continue with a 7 which doens't have topkicker or a draw.

Well if he checks the river I would jam for value (9x). I expect him to jam his sets on the turn. So with me not putting him on a 7, set or boat he can't beat me.

Flop bet is way too small. The board is wet and you have 2 opponents in the hand. You want to get heads-up and narrow your opponent's range, and a 25% bet won't do both of those things. Villain is getting 4.5:1 on the flop call, so he can peel one with most of his range (and you're giving him correct odds if he has a flush draw). I'd be betting like 2/3 pot on that flop.

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Villain is repping a really narrow range here, 99 and 22, I don't think he's calling 7x twice on this board but I suppose it's possible.

Would a good player call twice with flush draws or hands like JTs or T8s with the intention of jamming the river? Possibly but it's less likely given the presence of the other villain in the hand.

This is probably a puke fold but I'm sure I would tilt call in game!




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I dont mind the small flop bet, MP3 is probably going to get it in with his fds anyway, and you have a huge advanted against BB range.

OTR its a spot, where he is repping a very thin valuerange, and you basically have the best hand you could have in this spot except 99/77, you block A7, and you dont have the A of clubs in your hand. For all these reasons i would probably end up calling this combo, and maybe fold with AcAx.

His turn call with Jc7 seems pretty bad tho.

I haven't thought about this ingame but if I would have made it bigger OTF. 94k as is suggested by Darth_Maul. The pot would have been 237k. That would leave me with 400k. What would be the plan on the turn? I can't shove this. I would only fold out worse hands and let call better hands. So half of my stack? Well that is basically all in as well right? So that leaves me /w 33% of my stack. 133k into 237k. With me barreling 2 times this strong I don't give them the opportunity to keep their worse hands in, do I? I agree I could make it a bit bigger to get heads up. But 40% max. Because with a barrel he should fold his 7x. About the flush draw. I did give him 25% but he only has 18% to hit his flush. So the bet is fine. But again I agree. With a 40% PSB he would probably call /w a flush draw and a 7 as well.

I think that conclusion here is that I should have made my cbet a bit bigger, but him calling a double barrel /w J7o is just way too wide. I don't think I can expect him to have these kind of hands on the river.