hey all, coming back to the game after a ~10 year lay-off and love the level of sophistication in thinking that's been introduced/evolved, etc.

As I'm catching myself up on everything - I'm curious if there's been any modeling to factor in tournament mortality to EV flip spots, some sort of long-ICM element that could be introduced for pre-money/I'm out if this doesn't work, situations.

Running math over 123M hands to realize a minor edge in expected equity is an amazing advancement, but we mostly won't have a chance to experience anything near that sample size to realize the purity of that EV etc etc.

maybe I'm bugging and over thinking, but the game has stepped leaps and bounds since I was activate, so wanted to throw this chum in the convo.

thanks!

So if I got your question right, you're asking for something that hedges against the fact that you'll never actually get to reach the long term and realize your EV. Well this is basically expected value vs expected growth. Often, especially when dealing with long shot bets such as MTTs, the highest EV bet is not the highest EG bet. In fact +EV bets can be -EG if the bet is either too large a portion of your BR or too long of a shot given your edge. Your job as a bettor is to find the highest EG bets, not the highest EV ones.

What this means in practice is that very high ROI, huge field, huge prize pool MTTs may have a lower EG than low ROI, small field, small prize pool MTTs. Depending on your BR and your exact edge it may more +EG to play a $50 300 field FO rather than the Sunday Million.

This is all stuff you take into account before you reg. Once you actually start playing you should take all +EV spots because the volatility aspect has already been considered in the pre reg risk management calculations. Another way of putting it, if you ever find yourself in an MTT where the volatility or the money difference gets so big that it prevents you from taking the most +EV plays, then you probably shouldn't be playing that MTT in the first place.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...on-part-i.html

brilliant, exactly the thinking I was hoping to find, thanks!

Man this question has bugged me my whole life, thanks for answering it.