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good ICM fold? On the bubble of an 11 dollor super sng good ICM fold? On the bubble of an 11 dollor super sng

02-17-2010 , 06:49 PM
Poker Stars $10+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t300/t600 Blinds + t50 - 7 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: t10386 M = 8.31
Hero (BB): t12946 M = 10.36
UTG: t4535 M = 3.63
UTG+1: t12938 M = 10.35
MP: t4910 M = 3.93
CO: t6047 M = 4.84
BTN: t8238 M = 6.59

Pre Flop: (t1250) Hero is BB with K A
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t12888 all in, 5 folds
good ICM fold? On the bubble of an 11 dollor super sng Quote
02-17-2010 , 06:50 PM
I folded btw.
good ICM fold? On the bubble of an 11 dollor super sng Quote
02-17-2010 , 06:57 PM
so your playing to make the money? if so, good fold
good ICM fold? On the bubble of an 11 dollor super sng Quote
02-17-2010 , 06:58 PM
no dont care about that Im playing to win the money but I feel like I have a big edge on them and I can continue to chip up w/o having to put my whole stack in. if he std raises I insta ship
good ICM fold? On the bubble of an 11 dollor super sng Quote
02-17-2010 , 07:00 PM
pretty bad fold
good ICM fold? On the bubble of an 11 dollor super sng Quote
02-17-2010 , 07:06 PM
mehh txs u r right I dunno why I felt I had more chips that I actually had :/ txs thou
good ICM fold? On the bubble of an 11 dollor super sng Quote
02-17-2010 , 07:11 PM
Snap fold. Getting in a 70/30 going to be close to 0EV, and getting in a 45/55 flip is going to be a disaster.
good ICM fold? On the bubble of an 11 dollor super sng Quote
02-17-2010 , 07:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sopoRific
Snap fold. Getting in a 70/30 going to be close to 0EV, and getting in a 45/55 flip is going to be a disaster.
Really? this was my thinking but a bunch of people tell me was bad.
good ICM fold? On the bubble of an 11 dollor super sng Quote
02-17-2010 , 07:19 PM
I don't know how to calculate ICM but I think it's a good fold.
good ICM fold? On the bubble of an 11 dollor super sng Quote
02-17-2010 , 07:24 PM
(Note: I entirely redid this post when I realized I used an incorrect structure.)

Before we take into account the extra value of winning the tournament:

Fold: $69.06
Call, Win: $94.60
Call, Lose: $0.14

Break-even EV: (69.06 - 0.14) / (94.6 - 0.14) = 72.9%

Of course, winning gets 1 share of a $40,000 promotion. As of right now, there are 1330 people who have at least one share, and there are still 5 days left in the promotion. If we assume one share will be worth $20, we get

Fold: $73.16
Call, Win: $103.41
Call, Lose: $0.14

Break-Even EV: (73.16 - 0.14) / (103.41 - 0.14) = 70.8%

Hero only has about 65% equity against any two cards, and we'd even have a correct fold against AQs! (70.12% equity)

Last edited by sopoRific; 02-17-2010 at 07:53 PM. Reason: If I'm going to make a good post, the grammar better be right, dammit!
good ICM fold? On the bubble of an 11 dollor super sng Quote
02-17-2010 , 07:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sopoRific
(This is assuming a Stars 45-player SnG, but there are only 60k chips in play, so this analysis won't be correct if the structure is different.)

Fold EV: $77.35
Call, Win EV: $113.34
Call, Lose EV: $20.08

Break even Equity: (77.35 - 20.08) / (113.34 - 20.08) = 61.4%

Villain would need to push about 20% of the time to justify calling.


Edit: I found the structure you're playing. Stand by.
tyvm I truly appreciate it . I rlly thought it was fold thats why i folded but friend change my mine
good ICM fold? On the bubble of an 11 dollor super sng Quote
02-17-2010 , 07:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bigjor
tyvm I truly appreciate it . I rlly thought it was fold thats why i folded but friend change my mine
You might want to read my updated post that uses the correct structure.
good ICM fold? On the bubble of an 11 dollor super sng Quote
02-17-2010 , 08:09 PM
Thanks bud I appreciate it.
good ICM fold? On the bubble of an 11 dollor super sng Quote

      
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