Fuper: 99 facing reg's utg open - MTT Poker Strategy - Multi Table Tournament Poker Forum

Two Plus Two Forums Poker Strategy No Limit Tournaments

Fuper: 99 facing reg's utg open

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 1 of 2

1 2

Page 1 of 2

1 2

10-13-2010 , 08:31 PM

phos77

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 5,496

he's running 19/16, unsure of sample.
if this is a fold what's our shoving range here?

Full Tilt Poker $60,000 Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t200/t400 Blinds + t50 - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

breeth (UTG+1): t9761 M = 9.30
Hero (UTG+2): t8627 M = 8.22
FerQuincanpoix (MP1): t24725 M = 23.55
luiz SHAOLIN (MP2): t11365 M = 10.82
wenger1976 (CO): t13047 M = 12.43
Indo17 (BTN): t15255 M = 14.53
Ship_the_dollar (SB): t4075 M = 3.88
gBallz4aLL (BB): t18615 M = 17.73
StuMan123 (UTG): t18847 M = 17.95

Pre Flop: (t1050) Hero is UTG+2 with 9

StuMan123 raises to t800, 1 fold, Hero

Quote

10-13-2010 , 08:34 PM

mullen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 17,680

Think I jam 99+,AQs+, interested in hearing arguments to otherwise though

Quote

10-13-2010 , 09:39 PM

gostatego

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 5,752

yeah gl all in

Quote

10-13-2010 , 09:49 PM

itscml

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 2,723

jamalamadingdong given stacks

Quote

10-13-2010 , 09:57 PM

skater3598

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 4,597

Quote:

Originally Posted by mullen

Think I jam 99+,AQs+, interested in hearing arguments to otherwise though

i did it for a long time and they like-never-ever fold

i think it's an easy fold especially from utg+2

*busts out his pokerstove*

i don't know he equation we should use but i could fill you in with some info i would use in said equation had i known it

i think 22+,A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KQo is a realistic range for the utg minraise given the stacks behind which comprises 14% of hands and he calls with TT+,AQs,AQo+ which is 4.7% of all hands so he folds 9.3% of the time and when he calls we have 37.26%

so we win 1850 9.3% of the time

ill look for that equation

*paging betgo*

Quote

10-13-2010 , 09:58 PM

O mother muc

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 5

Getting it in with 88 or better plus AQ AK

Quote

10-13-2010 , 09:58 PM

cakecity7

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 87

id always shove this unless ive got like 100+ hands on the guy at 9/8 or so

Quote

10-13-2010 , 09:58 PM

skater3598

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 4,597

Quote:

Originally Posted by itscml

jamalamadingdong given stacks

we're the 2nd shortest at 20 bb

are you saying people minraise light here? or you know villain? what do you mean by 'given stacks' here?

Quote

10-13-2010 , 10:03 PM

mullen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 17,680

Quote:

Originally Posted by skater3598

I'm sure people behind wake up with hands too so factor that in as well, too lazy to do maths though

Quote

10-13-2010 , 10:03 PM

#10

cakecity7

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 87

Quote:

Originally Posted by skater3598

i think 22+,A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KQo is a realistic range for the utg minraise given the stacks behind which comprises 14% of hands and he calls with TT+,AQs,AQo+ which is 4.7% of all hands so he folds 9.3% of the time and when he calls we have 37.26%

so we win 1850 9.3% of the time

ill look for that equation

*paging betgo*

lol wat, if thats true then hes folding like 66% of the time but someone opening that wide utg will usually call with 88+ AQ+

Quote

10-13-2010 , 10:05 PM

#11

skater3598

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 4,597

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15...equity-409466/

Quote

10-13-2010 , 10:17 PM

#12

skater3598

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 4,597

EV = [1850] * (.093/.14) + [.3726 * (8627 * 2 + 1850) - 8627] * (1-(.093/.14))

= 722 chips which would be a huge edge

that would be he raises 22+,A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KQo and calls TT+,AQ+

first time i did this so might be wrong

Quote

10-13-2010 , 10:19 PM

#13

zedveron

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 4,976

Quote:

Originally Posted by O mother muc

Getting it in with 88 or better plus AQ AK

this seems good.

Quote

10-13-2010 , 10:30 PM

#14

skater3598

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 4,597

if he calls with 88+, AQo+ given the raising range i used above EV = [1850] * (.084/.14) + [.413 * (8627 * 2 + 1850) - 8627] * (1-(.084/.14))

ev=815

neither of these accounted for other players calling with monsters but i guess they call TT+,AK which is 3.5% or 3.0% if they fold TT and there are 6 people left to go so that happens something like 18% of the time and we have 31.2% in that case which isnt that horrible

Quote

10-13-2010 , 10:47 PM

#15

skater3598

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 4,597

i wrote out a few more but at risk of looking like an idiot for doing 5 of these wrong i'm going to lay off until someone can check my math

Quote

10-13-2010 , 11:01 PM

#16

DB21

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,553

Doubt villain calls 88 here.

Quote

10-13-2010 , 11:07 PM

#17

skater3598

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 4,597

Quote

10-13-2010 , 11:08 PM

#18

cakecity7

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 87

Quote:

Originally Posted by DB21

Doubt villain calls 88 here.

nice poast, he prob only calls TT+ like skater suggested

Quote

10-13-2010 , 11:11 PM

#19

cakecity7

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 87

depends what kind of reg villain is, some will call 77 some will call jj+

Quote

10-13-2010 , 11:34 PM

#20

skater3598

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 4,597

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakecity7

lol wat

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakecity7

nice poast, he prob only calls TT+ like skater suggested

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakecity7

depends what kind of reg villain is, some will call 77 some will call jj+

die troll die

Quote

10-13-2010 , 11:38 PM

#21

cakecity7

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 87

lol skater

Quote

10-13-2010 , 11:46 PM

#22

cakecity7

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 87

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakecity7

lol skater

Quote:

Originally Posted by skater3598

i think 22+,A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KQo is a realistic range for the utg minraise which comprises 14% of hands and he calls with TT+,AQs,AQo+ which is 4.7% of all hands so he folds 9.3%

so we win 1850 9.3% of the time

i thought i sucked at maths

Quote

10-14-2010 , 12:13 AM

#23

skater3598

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 4,597

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakecity7

i thought i sucked at maths

800 minraise
+400 bb
+200 sb
+450 antes

1850 dead

14%-4.7%=9.3%

you do suck!

Last edited by skater3598; 10-14-2010 at 12:18 AM.

Quote

10-14-2010 , 12:13 AM

#24

isuxatpokerbad

2015 WSOP ME Champ

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 7,629

im pretty sure this is a super fistpump snapfold

Quote

10-14-2010 , 12:14 AM

#25

skater3598

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 4,597

Quote:

Originally Posted by isuxatpokerbad

im pretty sure this is a super fistpump snapfold

what i almost wrote instead of all this other ****

Quote

Page 1 of 2

First

1 2

Last

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 1 of 2

First

1 2

Last