This is a hand from last night's 40k gtd. HH is on my laptop, so this is from memory.

Blinds are 200/400 + 50. charder's been at the table for a few orbits with 10-15 BB; he's shoved a few times w/o action and chipped his way up to around 9k. Last hand he minraised from CO and bet 999 into a 2250 pot on a raggy flop vs. BB, who folded.

I've got 4300. About an orbit ago I had 9500-ish and lost a flip with 88 vs AQ pre for half my stack (I open to 895 in HJ, CO jams 4750, I call); since then I've been card-dead (might've opened and taken blinds once, but can't remember). No other relevant history.

The hand in question:

charder opens to 800 in HJ, leaving around 8500 behind. Folds to me in the BB with 33 and 3900 behind. With the blinds and antes, the pot is now 1850. I...? How do my options change if he views me as competent vs. bad vs. unknown rando?

(FWIW, none of the three players between us were threats to resteal, either b/c of stacks or passivity or both.)

snap ship

100% mandatory shove

I think Charder's view of you will matter little here. He will be min opening a ton and folding a lot and calling with hands we can live with seeing enough to make this an easily profitable spot

I snap shove regardless of how he views me too.

snap shove you has a pair

What's the raise/folding range of a good reg here? (talking about him, not me obv)

Results of this hand surprised me a little tbh

I probably shove....I don't think he folds very much at all though

I guess this probably depends on your table. I mean if you get it in your obviously gambling since i doubt he ever folds, and with 33 your at best flipping. If the players to your left are nitty and you can shove the button, cutoff, and hj positions pretty widely and chip up then i would fold 33. But if you have tough players to your left that will call >10bb shoves lightly then I'd prob just gamble here. Hope that makes sense

Oh and also, given your stack i doubt his options change very much based off his read on you, unless he views u as a super nit.

I would not be surprised if Charder's raising range in the HJ here is absurd wide. I know mine would be if, as you stated, most of the stacks left to act were not threats to resteal. With passive/weak players behind I'm raising so many hands its crazy in similar spots.

That being said, just ship. Theres some chance he folds. You're flipping a lot of the time. Sometimes he has A2. Yes possible you are dominated sometimes but w/e, its certainly not the most likely thing. You've got under 10bbs in the mid stages of a tourney, you need chips at some point and this looks like a spot to get some.

for sure

really? is there that much fold equity here? I guess since he only put in 2x instead of 2.5-2.7 or whatever he wont be getting 2:1 on a call but still. When called we are flipping or crushed. I'm hesitant until i see some math.

He's getting good odds to call but it's still a big portion of his stack and his raising range here consists of soooooo many unpaired cards that I can't imagine not shoving this and also not having at least some FE.

Yea I think you gotta shove here. You might have some FE since it's a min-raise not to mention charder's HJ range is gonna be wide enough to make this shove profitable.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbs8OTEauHc

Anyway, results:

He tanked for a loooooong time before calling with 44. Maybe he was just masstabling, but I was still surprised that it wasn't an instacall...which is why I was thinking that maybe a random has more FE in that spot than you might expect.

Easy fold, charder doesn't r/f vs 10bb stacks so he won't raise light in the HJ.

I am not sure I agree with this table dynamic...I do think we are flipping a lot vs K10/A8 type hands but with our stack and the dead money and some non zero FE I think we have to take this spot

as in NEVER imo

I don't think you have much FE vs an open from a solid player with 10 BBs. However, I think there are enough hands in his range that you're flipping with to make shipping here profitable.