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FTP  UTG even stacks on the bubble w A8s FTP  UTG even stacks on the bubble w A8s

12-29-2009 , 05:08 PM
SB was calling a little loose (I'm assuming around 15-20%)... Everyone else was standard tight
Wiz says this is a fold even if I'm willing to take a neg edge of -.5... I tried playing around with the calling ranges, but the suggested pushing range barely changes.

I posted a hand similar to this awhile back... I think I'm having trouble on bubbles with even stacks. Can someone help me understand why this is a fold? This was a snapshove for me in game

Full Tilt Poker $33 + $3 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t250/t500 Blinds - 4 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: t3380 M = 4.51
BB: t4650 M = 6.20
Hero (CO): t3030 M = 4.04
BTN: t2440 M = 3.25

Pre Flop: (t750) Hero is CO with 8 A
Hero raises to t3030 all in,
FTP  UTG even stacks on the bubble w A8s Quote
12-29-2009 , 06:19 PM
I believe it is mostly because the BB is the bigstack and you are essentially UTG, and have to make it past everyone at the table, and if you are called, likely to be very behind. I think if you are on button, this is a shove.
FTP  UTG even stacks on the bubble w A8s Quote
12-30-2009 , 05:38 AM
well, you are UTG and all 3 can hurt your stack very bad or just simply take all ur equity away and knock you out. But allowing the blinds to hit you again w/o shoving A8s is blasphemy. bb500, HERO has 6bbs and A8s imo. I dont think i ever find myself folding here.
FTP  UTG even stacks on the bubble w A8s Quote
12-30-2009 , 11:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by juandadi
well, you are UTG and all 3 can hurt your stack very bad or just simply take all ur equity away and knock you out. But allowing the blinds to hit you again w/o shoving A8s is blasphemy. bb500, HERO has 6bbs and A8s imo. I dont think i ever find myself folding here.
+1
FTP  UTG even stacks on the bubble w A8s Quote
12-30-2009 , 03:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by juandadi
well, you are UTG and all 3 can hurt your stack very bad or just simply take all ur equity away and knock you out. But allowing the blinds to hit you again w/o shoving A8s is blasphemy. bb500, HERO has 6bbs and A8s imo. I dont think i ever find myself folding here.
I agree, but I thought allowing a neg edge in WIZ compensates for the upcoming blinds... Even if I allow a pretty hefty neg edge, WIZ still suggests fold...

Also, WIZ's suggested shoving range is incredibly polarized even when I change villains' calling ranges dramatically. i don't get this? It has something to do with the even stacks, but this confuses the hell out of me still
FTP  UTG even stacks on the bubble w A8s Quote
12-30-2009 , 03:47 PM
looks like you are doing something wrong.

Go to View -> Simulate Future Games and untick it.

I get around 0.0 EV when running it in wiz with reasonable and a bit loose calling ranges. Throw in the -0.4 to -0.7 edge that you can take because of the high blinds and you have a pretty massive shove here.
FTP  UTG even stacks on the bubble w A8s Quote
12-30-2009 , 04:10 PM
These situations are really sensitive to small changes in villains' ranges. A little tweaking and you can easily get a push range anywhere from 5 to 50% even with zero edge.

Don't know how realistic these ranges are for your stakes but they seem reasonable.

And what ragztoriches said in the other thread about the 'hero fold' ranges making a significant difference. Like you, smiteme, I was wondering about how applicable ICM is in these bubble spots, but it looks like ICM really does apply (unless you're ss utg), it's just really sensitive to small changes in ranges.





FTP  UTG even stacks on the bubble w A8s Quote

      
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