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FTP : bubble call against shortstack FTP : bubble call against shortstack

11-05-2008 , 01:10 AM
Villian seemed pretty tight, wasn't really shoving very much at all. Do I still have to call here getting >2:1? (sngpt says so just making sure)

Full Tilt Poker $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t200/t400 Blinds - 4 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: t1105
SB: t3630
Hero (BB): t2490
CO: t6275

Pre Flop: (t600) Hero is BB with 6 5
1 fold, BTN raises to t1105 all in, 1 fold, Hero calls t705
FTP : bubble call against shortstack Quote
11-05-2008 , 03:00 AM
I'd want to have about 37% probability of winning against his range for me to call this - otherwise - fold.
FTP : bubble call against shortstack Quote
11-05-2008 , 05:29 AM
You get much more than 2:1 (closer to 2.5:1). I call quickly.
FTP : bubble call against shortstack Quote
11-05-2008 , 06:24 AM
one thing to remember if the blind level has just go up the previous tightness from the lower blinds would of gone because he has less than 3 BB.
FTP : bubble call against shortstack Quote
11-05-2008 , 08:13 AM
Even if this might be against perfect theoretical suggestions, I might find a fold here and that's why:

I figured out that a lot of players of those limits do play far, far away from optimal. So when I am playing optimal they will see me in their eyes as crazy sometimes. So even if this call is theoretically mandatory three players will watch me calling an AI on the bubble with 56o. I mean 56o. Even if I get lucky and win as an underdog in the eyes of a weaker player I just screwed up my image for the endgame (in his eyes I am playing badbabbad and got lucky). Worse, if I loose this AI, every weaker player will think that I "deserve" this and should not get ITM because they are playing "honest". I will get less credits for my shoves, villains will be more inclined to call my AI even with weaker hands for "justice".

I try to figure out during the game, vs. who can I shove lightest and probably could fold this hand and push light vs. the button two hands later. Maintaining fold equity (meaning stacksize and image) is crucial, by calling as underdog in this spot I might loose both aspects.
FTP : bubble call against shortstack Quote
11-05-2008 , 12:23 PM
EQ Fold: 19.94
EQ Call/Win: 31.83
EQ Call/Lose: 14.18

x = win chance

x * 31.83 + (1-x) * 14.18 = 19.94

x = 32.63% win chance needed to make this call breakeven

Assume button was moving in w/ something in the neighborhood of 22+, A2+, K8, QJ, JT
you are about 35% to win -- it's a marginal call but one that is fine by the odds.
FTP : bubble call against shortstack Quote
11-05-2008 , 03:38 PM
I actually folded 64o in a similar situation today, SNGEGT gave me -0.1% EV from calling, think it was my first fold getting better than 2:1 in months
FTP : bubble call against shortstack Quote
11-05-2008 , 08:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmc999
EQ Fold: 19.94
EQ Call/Win: 31.83
EQ Call/Lose: 14.18

x = win chance

x * 31.83 + (1-x) * 14.18 = 19.94

x = 32.63% win chance needed to make this call breakeven

Assume button was moving in w/ something in the neighborhood of 22+, A2+, K8, QJ, JT
you are about 35% to win -- it's a marginal call but one that is fine by the odds.
Cheers for the correction.
FTP : bubble call against shortstack Quote
11-05-2008 , 08:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmc999
x * 31.83 + (1-x) * 14.18 = 19.94

...

you are about 35% to win -- it's a marginal call
35 * 31.83 + (1-35) * 14.18 = 20.36 - 19.94 = 0.42

not that marginal imo, and more than enough to overcome reasons like image and loosing a lot of fold equity when you lose...
FTP : bubble call against shortstack Quote

      
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