Let us say that he is 3betting something like 16% and calling 5.9%.
4bet shoving the AQo in this scenario results in -4$EV (I am not bad with ICM but I checked it to be shure). If he is 3betting 22% and calling 5.9% we win +2$EV. How profitable is to bust a weak table for +2$ev when next pay jump is $60 ?

Betgo- 3b sizing, history and dynamics and turn bet sizing and timing...

My question is can we fold the top of our range ott if we have a read that we are beat?
I mean I know game theory in poker and I know that my play is super exploitable and BAD.

I actually dunno. I will fold this once a year... But I was sure I am right.
So I posted to get some negative feedback

4bet shoving against this player is not really profitbale. If my ranges are correct we are actually losing $ev on this move...

you know you're putting him on 8 combos of AK precisely?

+6 combos of A9 and A9s,3 combos of 99 and 1 combination of AA. But yeah people who are saying this is terrible fold are right in a vacuum. But sometimes you just know you are beat... sounds stupid?

Just to make it clear if you guys think that I am not capable of calling down 3 streets with A high in this 3betted pot. You probably never played with me .
I do not fold easy when I have a read on my opponent.

this is nowhere near as bad as most people make it out to be

he is probably 3betting a lot higher than 16% and calling wider than 5.9%. But I don't understand why you post this hand like mashxx says. Everyone tells you they disagree, yet you insist you made a correct lay down. So why did you post?

I am sorry for not making it clear. I mean I agree with all of the comments.
I post because I wonder if this is:
a). border line ridiculous fold
b). just bad and weak passive.

This is why I post. The common opinion is a) and I agree 100% with it.
If the common opinion was b) I would think that I could relay on my read and be weak and passive once in 100k hands.
I mean this is not my general approach to tournament poker.

no clue abt all the hate.. the hand is fine i dunno if i fold turn here tbh but pre is fine.. great idea to just rip 40bbs here over the 3b anyone who said that is totally braindead.. I think u can c/c turn and c/f river not likely someone gonna try to make you fold Ax after calling the turn and I'm not sure A10 gonna vbet the river but he's gonna have AJ and A10 for value ott and ck back river some here.. add in bluffs i think we have to call turn

How bad is c/bombing the turn given what's already in the pot?...we def need to be c/c flop, and either c/c turn or bombing...we lose to exactly AK or a turned set of 9s in a 3 bet pot BvB...seems simple unless I'm missing something...

If he had AK, A9, or 99, then you are gonna go broke and there's nothing that can be done about it. Take your medicine and move on to the next tourney. But we aren't going to play a hand this strong so passively just because we don't hold the absolute nuts. You are set on such a small range of hands that beat you rather than focusing on the massive amount of hands that you are crushing in this spot. I honestly can't believe there have been this many comments for a hand that appears to be a very standard spot.

If you believe that a 4 bet/jam in this spot is not making heaps of money always, then your ranges are clearly incorrect.

Dude claims to know poker game theory while trying to defend a play he claims to know was still exploitable and bad all in the same sentence. I have to say that I am very impressed.

Then post some better ranges and we'll work out the math from there

The biggest mistake in the hand is indeed PF, but it's not flatting the 3bet.

If you're referring to his raise sizing pre flop being too small as the mistake, then yes, I agree with that.

It appears that our opponent is 3 betting a wide range over a 2k sample. Not only do we know this, but he's doing it in a spot where he should be looking to put a lot of ICM pressure on a stack like ours. I wouldn't be looking to play big pots with larger stacks out of position with two shorter stacks left in play, so why wouldn't our opponent have a wide 3 betting range here? We are getting so owned playing our hand post flop out of position against an aggressive opponent (and weaker opponents) that I feel it's lighting money on fire by merely flatting almost 20% of our stack oop with a hand as strong as AQ.

Not only do I think our opponent is 3 bet bluffing enough to make shoving profitable, but he can also be 3 betting hands worse hands for value. Are you telling me that he's not going to 3 betting KQ, AJ, A10 type hands for value in this spot? In some cases, we can even find ourselves called off by worse, or even flipping for a potentially massive pot. However, I just expect him to be folding so often that we are almost always taking this pot down with a 4bet jam pre. I think we are very rarely being in a situation where we find ourselves in a dominated situation by our opponent. If I were to flat, I would be flatting hands like A9s, KJ, 10 9s, etc etc.

All in all, I really think that our opponent has to be the nit of all nits to make flatting this hand pre the best play.

So you're saying he's 3betting a ridiculously wide range, which includes a ****load of hands we dominate, and that he calls our jam with a very tight range we have like 40% equity against, and somehow that's an argument against flatting? Also OP posted that jamming is around breakeven ($EV) with a 20% 3bet / 5.9% call-off range for villain, and that isn't unreasonably tight, especially due to sizing and the fact that villain can flat ~ATC profitably vs our initial minraise.

For all I care this can be a profitable ATC jam if you think he's 3betting that often and folding that often vs a jam, but that doesn't mean that that's the best line with a hand as strong as AQ.

You are not getting owned playing AQ OOP vs a dominated range, and if you are, you need to get better postflop.

If you're folding the turn w/AQ in this spot, you're getting owned post flop.

I can see some situations where flatting with these stack sizes is our best option, but don't believe that this is one of them. Could be close tho.

I agree that turn is not a fold, but I think it's fairly close and doesn't necessarily mean we're getting 'owned'.

This is the driest board in the history of mankind, and villain doesn't really have many draws or even gutshots he can be barreling. Our range is weighted towards top pair (or better), with a very limited amount of worse made hands, and (should be) uncapped.
I think you're really overestimating the amount of players in a random $40 on a random site that decide to start 2/3-barreling people of top pair+ with zero equity hands. It's completely different on a board with a FD, or even ATxx instead of A9xx, but this is really the worst board ever to barrel.
He probably still valuebets enough worse hands (mostly AJ/AT) and has some semibluffs (67 / 5x / ...) so that we can profitably peel turn, but it's nowhere near a fistpump.

how could we fold brick river with 90k in the middle and 30k behind and us knowing V could likely bet AJ,AT for thin value

I will say it once again I that I regret my fold and agree with the posts above.
However I think that 4 bet shoving and flating bouth have their merits.
But come on some people just say something like: you are bad, you will get owned oop.
Game theory wise I am far from ''owned" since I know that my range is pretty tight OTT and some AQ combos ( some times) can probably be folded and still play optimal but very nity .

Preflop, 4b shove, call, and 4b/call are all reasonable.

Not folding postflop, because your range should not include AK/AQ/AA, so he can be barrelling with the big stack and position or value betting worse hands and certainly chops.

You said earlier that you liked your fold, now you are saying that you regret. Weird.

I was joking.
Anyway thaks to everyone commenting in the thread

im really late to this party but i played w these ranges for 30min so im posting them looking for feedback. JOLO bitches

open to 4500+, id go 2.5x, 4b to 27-28k and dont fold more than 5-10% of flops(789hhh, T78ddd).
as played flop is good and i would shove turn if you think villain will call his Ax otherwise call/call turn and river.

id open to 5000 w 22+ A2+ K9+ Q9+ J9+ T9 98 K7s+ Q8s+ J8s+ T7s +97s+ 86s+ 75s+ 65s-43s
vs villains sizing in this ICM spot i would 4b to 27-28k w 77+ AJ+ KQ QJo A2s-A5s KTs
vs villains sizing in this ICM spot i would flat AT KJo A8s-A9s KJs QTs JTs-76s

these ranges allows villain to slightly profit from 3b ATC so i could see tightening up open range from 38% to 30ish(seems a lot better than loosening 4b range but idk) but thought that villain may just have a true dream spot w position/stacks/payjumps and i got bored

might limp my whole range preflop