The situation: 45-man tournament, 7 players left (so you are now ITM). You are UTG with 9000 chips. Everyone has you (barely) covered. Blinds are 1200/600/75 (so your M is less than 4). You are dealt 99. Push or Fold?

I think that pushing is only break-even here. Your current equity is 13.83%. if you push, I calculate that you will steal the blinds about 58% of the time, and about 42% of the time you will get called. Assuming the top 10% of hands if you get called, you will win about 47% of the time when called. It breaks down to this:

Steal blinds: 58% of the time (equity: 15.47%)
Double up: 19.7% (equity: 19.53%)
Lose: 22.3% (equity: 4.5%)

Multiply it through, and your equity is 13.82%, which makes it marginal. Probably a push since the blinds are about to hit you. But barely.

is this a joke?

if you dont shove, and you get shoved on in the blinds, you lose 2k in chips, going down to 9k to 7k.

you have fing 99! 7 handed! i could understand if it was FT bubble and there were shorties but.. ITM? gtfo

edit: to be fair, 88 is where i draw the line (and even then I'd still hate it). 99+ is the fist pump shove.

God I hate it when people use M.

What you need to consider (which you did a little bit but not enough) is that after the blinds hit you, you lose over 20% of your stack. I would consider your equity to be not what it is now but what it is after the blinds hit you (aka -2000 chips)

Second you are considering everyone equal. Shorties may be calling you with A2-A8 <88 thinking you are stealing or thinking this is a good enough shot. The medium stacks (12000-16000) are going to tighten up because you are going to hurt their stack too much.

Just read that everyone has you barely covered. Push it, people may be tighter than top 10%.

I draw my line at 77/88+ AQo+, AJs+

1) most 45 mans belong in small stakes mtt, not hsmtt, though if it does belong in high stakes, specify the buy in for these reasons.

2) don't cross post mtt hands in the stt forum plz. if you very much need those who are probably reading those forums regardless to know immediately, direct them in the **** thread. Thanks.