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Fold to donk shove on flop?

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08-02-2018 , 08:38 PM

1.618

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 410

BB: 13.57 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
UTG: 16.57 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
MP: 16.57 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
Hero (CO): 46.19 BB
BTN: 66.54 BB (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 12)
SB: 17.18 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)

6 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.1 BB) Hero has K

UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 6 BB, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 4 BB

Flop: (14.1 BB, 2 players) 3

UTG bets 10.47 BB

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08-03-2018 , 12:47 AM

UntimelyBluff

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 322

Folding is okay I'd probably peel one off just to see what he does on the turn and if I don't improve I'll just let it go, to justify a proper play on this hand we would need some info about the villain, has done this before if he has what hand was it with, how aggressive he is etc.

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08-03-2018 , 12:52 AM

gamboneee

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 9,160

cant peel vs an allin

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08-03-2018 , 04:04 AM

CC96

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 358

With two overs, bsd and bfd I don't think it is bad to call. You need about 28% equity to call which I think you have the majority of the time.

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08-03-2018 , 04:20 AM

cizixap

adept

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 1,027

I would shove preflop;

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08-03-2018 , 04:58 AM

UntimelyBluff

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 322

Didn't see his stack size with him being that short may as well just GII before the flop.

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08-03-2018 , 07:22 AM

jjpregler

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,974

I wouldn't shove, we have 46BBs and the button covers us. This is an effect stack shove of 46BBs.

If the button had similar stacks to everyone else, shove pre.

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08-03-2018 , 08:46 AM

cizixap

adept

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 1,027

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjpregler

I wouldn't shove, we have 46BBs and the button covers us. This is an effect stack shove of 46BBs.

If the button had similar stacks to everyone else, shove pre.

the effective stack at the moment of shove is still 16BB; even if btn calls you, the main pot is 3 way 48BB + blinds + ante, but there is a side pot 2 * 30BB vs Btn; I don't know about you, but I am OK to play side pot against BTN with AKo;

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08-03-2018 , 09:29 AM

1.618

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 410

I don't get why would push here cizixap. First off, your assuming UTG is calling if BTN calls our all in. We are risking our 46bb stack that if BTN calls (and fairly decent chance UTG is folding) we are playing heads up against a range that should have us crushed.

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08-03-2018 , 09:44 AM

#10

cizixap

adept

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 1,027

I push pre because :
1) AKo is the hand that wants to see all the board cards;
2) we 3-bet anyways. UTG should either fold or 4-bet shove because he has so miserable stack. I don't mind to play AI with him;
3) I don't want to play multiway pot;
4) what range do you think BTN should have to CRUSH* us? KK+? it's 0.45% of all hands. If you are going to choose your strategy based on so infrequent events, how are you going to win?

* really hate this word, can't we just say "beat us"?

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08-03-2018 , 10:35 AM

#11

1.618

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 410

^We are risking 46bbs to win 4bb. Yes, large % of time BTN is out, but also large (but less so) UTG folds to our all in and we win 4bbs. Which is fine if its me and UTG in a vacuum, but the risk/reward with UTG seems imbalanced is my point.

So give him JJ+ and AKs range ~2.5% of hands.

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08-03-2018 , 11:38 AM

#12

cizixap

adept

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 1,027

Quote:

Originally Posted by 23LBJ23

I don't agree that UTG often folds here; I shove expecting that he calls more often than not;
JJ+, AKs after dead cards removal is just 0.45%(JJ * 6 combos) + 0.45%(QQ * 6 combos) + 0.225%(KK * 3 combos) + 0.225%(AA * 3 combos) + 0.15(AKhh, AKss) = 1.5%, not 2.5%;

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08-03-2018 , 01:19 PM

#13

pucmo

adept

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 1,188

I wouldn't mind calling on the flop with your stack and the pot odds and the richness of the flop, AK two overs with a backdoor. You should be betting that flop anyway.

When there is more money than that and the situations is similar, I bet it is more likely some top pair you are against and how bad is the kicker depends on how loose the player is (and his range).

One is not a favourite vs. the draws and less so vs. his whole range but here I would call like half the time with my stack size. But I am a relatively loose caller (making mistakes also there) when it can't hurt me too much and so on. Playing it then like in cash games but if I think I am beaten.

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08-05-2018 , 06:50 PM

#14

deyweresooted

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 91

Quote:

Originally Posted by CC96

With two overs, bsd and bfd I don't think it is bad to call. You need about 28% equity to call which I think you have the majority of the time.

Hey, I am still relatively new to the game, can you show the math you used to get to 28% here please?

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08-06-2018 , 06:20 AM

#15

CC96

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 358

Quote:

Originally Posted by deyweresooted

Hey, I am still relatively new to the game, can you show the math you used to get to 28% here please?

I'm at work currently but will check when I get back. However the odds of backdoor flush coming in is about 4%. Back door straight is 1% i believe and 6 over outs is about 25% if both are live.

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08-06-2018 , 08:48 AM

#16

Darth_Maul

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 4,474

Quote:

Originally Posted by deyweresooted

Hey, I am still relatively new to the game, can you show the math you used to get to 28% here please?

If you're drawing to outs you can just use the 4/2 rule for a rough estimate of equity: multiply your outs by 4 on the flop and 2 on the turn. So an open ender with 8 outs would give you a rough estimate of 32% on the flop and 16% on the turn (the actual equity is 31.5% and 17.4% respectively).

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08-11-2018 , 07:19 PM

#17

deyweresooted

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 91

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth_Maul

Thanks!

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