Flopped Overpair with Turned K facing All-In
01-15-2017
, 01:44 AM
Event: WSOP 1MIL GTD $360 Buy-In
30 Min Blind Levels
10K Starting Stack
I just moved to a new table after my old table broke up. I look at people's stacks and immediately notice a player who has around 80k stack. Player to my right is complaining to the player to his right about how lucky this particular player is. He apparently bets and raises his draws a lot and kept hitting and stacking people.
My stack has barely grown past the starting stack. I have made some very bad plays and got sacked on with some pretty big hands earlier in the tournament. I honestly feel like I got dead-handed for hours on end so I started getting loose with my pre flop open range (I know, I know. I shouldn't do this. zZz).
The hand in question is the second hand back from the second break. I have been at this table for about 30 minutes, took a break, and then came back into this hand.
Comments on all streets is appreciated.
The Hand:
Blinds: 300/600/75
Hero Stack: 16k (Small Blind)
V2 Stack: 9k (Big Blind)
V Stack: 80k (UTG)
V3 Stack: 26k (BTN)
The hand starts with V (UTG) opening for 1600.
It folds around to BTN (V3) who calls.
Hero (SB) has 9
9
and calls.
V2 (BB) calls.
Flop: 8
4
4 (Pot: 7150)
Hero Checks.
V2 (SB) Checks.
V (UTG) Bets 2200.
V3 (BTN) Folds.
Hero Calls.
V2 (SB) folds.
Turn: K (Pot: 11,550)
Hero Checks.
V specifically asks me how much I have behind. All I do is move my hand out of the way but I don't answer. He looks at my stack a little bit more, counts out some chips, and then puts me all in.
Hero?
My Analysis: If what my table mates say is true, V is very likely to be doing this with air. He could be doing this with just a flush draw or just two broad way cards. He could obviously be doing this with a K or a bigger pocket pair or 88.
Board: 844K
Equity Win Tie
UTG 66.06% 66.06% 0.00% { TT+, 88, AQs+, KJs+, QJs, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, AQo+, KJo+, QJo }
SB 33.94% 33.94% 0.00% { 9s9c }
If we include this many bluffs, my equity is still only 34%. I have about 12k left behind. The pot is 11,550 and he is putting in another 12k. So, the pot is ~24k and I am putting in 12k. I need roughly 33% equity to break even so if I include bluffs this wide then this bet is pretty insane as it is near perfect for me to either call or fold.
If we remove the flush draws and tighten up his bluffs, it looks like this:
Board: 844K
Equity Win Tie
MP2 81.41% 81.41% 0.00% { TT+, 88, KJs+, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AQo+, KJo+ }
SB 18.59% 18.59% 0.00% { 9s9c }
If we tighten his range, I am pretty dead here so I should be folding.
What do folks think?
30 Min Blind Levels
10K Starting Stack
I just moved to a new table after my old table broke up. I look at people's stacks and immediately notice a player who has around 80k stack. Player to my right is complaining to the player to his right about how lucky this particular player is. He apparently bets and raises his draws a lot and kept hitting and stacking people.
My stack has barely grown past the starting stack. I have made some very bad plays and got sacked on with some pretty big hands earlier in the tournament. I honestly feel like I got dead-handed for hours on end so I started getting loose with my pre flop open range (I know, I know. I shouldn't do this. zZz).
The hand in question is the second hand back from the second break. I have been at this table for about 30 minutes, took a break, and then came back into this hand.
Comments on all streets is appreciated.
The Hand:
Blinds: 300/600/75
Hero Stack: 16k (Small Blind)
V2 Stack: 9k (Big Blind)
V Stack: 80k (UTG)
V3 Stack: 26k (BTN)
The hand starts with V (UTG) opening for 1600.
It folds around to BTN (V3) who calls.
Hero (SB) has 9
9 and calls.V2 (BB) calls.
Flop: 8
44 (Pot: 7150)Hero Checks.
V2 (SB) Checks.
V (UTG) Bets 2200.
V3 (BTN) Folds.
Hero Calls.
V2 (SB) folds.
Turn: K
(Pot: 11,550)Hero Checks.
V specifically asks me how much I have behind. All I do is move my hand out of the way but I don't answer. He looks at my stack a little bit more, counts out some chips, and then puts me all in.
Hero?
My Analysis: If what my table mates say is true, V is very likely to be doing this with air. He could be doing this with just a flush draw or just two broad way cards. He could obviously be doing this with a K or a bigger pocket pair or 88.
Board: 8
44KEquity Win Tie
UTG 66.06% 66.06% 0.00% { TT+, 88, AQs+, KJs+, QJs, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, AQo+, KJo+, QJo }
SB 33.94% 33.94% 0.00% { 9s9c }
If we include this many bluffs, my equity is still only 34%. I have about 12k left behind. The pot is 11,550 and he is putting in another 12k. So, the pot is ~24k and I am putting in 12k. I need roughly 33% equity to break even so if I include bluffs this wide then this bet is pretty insane as it is near perfect for me to either call or fold.
If we remove the flush draws and tighten up his bluffs, it looks like this:
Board: 8
44KEquity Win Tie
MP2 81.41% 81.41% 0.00% { TT+, 88, KJs+, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AQo+, KJo+ }
SB 18.59% 18.59% 0.00% { 9s9c }
If we tighten his range, I am pretty dead here so I should be folding.
What do folks think?
Last edited by tlytle123; 01-15-2017 at 01:50 AM.
