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Finding a fold???

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10-17-2008 , 03:03 AM

mchambd

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 128

50 or so left out of 2500. I am around 17 in chips
My opponent hasnt gotton too out of line. pretty tag/no PT stats. i kinda meant to make it more preflop, my bet looks weak i think. but anyways, would a fold be ok here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00+$0.20 Tournament, 1000/2000 Blinds 200 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t68810)
Hero (UTG+1) (t91526)
MP1 (t32025)
MP2 (t69877)
MP3 (t121874)
CO (t93998)
Button (t89432)
SB (t130663)
BB (t72990)

Hero's M: 19.07

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J

, J

1 fold, Hero raises to t5200, 2 folds, MP3 raises to t32000, 5 folds

Total pot: t15200

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10-17-2008 , 03:44 AM

ajlewis661

adept

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 704

First off your raise size is fine at this level. I like a fold here. Considering you did come in with a raise from UTG+1 he should be giving you credit for a pretty good hand. Since you said he has not gotten out of line yet I guess he is probably 3 betting you with a pretty tight range.

36.585% { JJ }
63.415% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

Against a little bit wider of a range this become pretty close I think.

Hand 0: 46.876% { JJ }
Hand 1: 53.124% { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

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10-17-2008 , 05:38 AM

Penny_Black

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 2,669

I think I would have raised a bit more pre, probably more around 6k, 6.5k
As played, I find his reraise rather donkish and oversized. To me it looks more like AK, 99, 1010 than KK+. It could also be a scared QQ.
Although you said the guy didn't get out of line, he is adopting a weird one here...
However you're in very good shape, so I don't mind folding with 42bb left to play

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10-17-2008 , 05:53 AM

thegeneral55

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 30

Quote:

Originally Posted by ajlewis661

36.585% { JJ }
63.415% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

Against a little bit wider of a range this become pretty close I think.

Hand 0: 46.876% { JJ }
Hand 1: 53.124% { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

how do you come up with these numbers , would be very interested in the software you use, thanks

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10-17-2008 , 05:58 AM

thegeneral55

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 30

i cannot see how jj can ever be good there , has to be a fold and look for a better spot, he has to put you on a decent hand given your position or maybe you have been getting out of line ? and hes puttting you to the test. you dont mention your table image. but if you have playing solid and hes putting in a big raise there then the jacks are toast

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10-17-2008 , 06:22 AM

KKDavid

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 304

Quote:

Originally Posted by thegeneral55

how do you come up with these numbers , would be very interested in the software you use, thanks

its pokerstove

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10-17-2008 , 06:52 AM

superswift

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 237

dont know about you guys but im goin for 1st and getting them in with no regrets

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10-17-2008 , 08:09 AM

thegeneral55

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 30

thanks david, appreciated

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10-17-2008 , 08:10 AM

thegeneral55

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 30

Quote:

Originally Posted by superswift

dont know about you guys but im goin for 1st and getting them in with no regrets

your joking right ? well i suppose it is pokerstars and u could hit the 2 outter

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10-17-2008 , 08:13 AM

#10

dereds

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Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 16,782

You think this is QQ+ AK given this raise size?

I am not so sure I fold here

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10-17-2008 , 08:53 AM

#11

Flavia

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 6

I quite often see 33-88 for these donkish reraises.
I'm shoving.

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10-17-2008 , 11:37 AM

#12

areaman

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*scratches head*

did i get lost in some sort of odd vortex?

also, what the fACK ranges are those?

are you stoned? its a $2 tournament...these *******s could be going clown shoes with ATs

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10-17-2008 , 11:40 AM

#13

ssnyc

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Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 38,129

yeah guys...where is the auto nut credit coming from...every time we get 3 bet we assume the nuts?

what do you guys think with QQ here? or with AK?

To win you are going to have to make some decisions and go with some spots...

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10-17-2008 , 11:43 AM

#14

areaman

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usually taht raise size means NOT ACES OR KINGS

but in this tournament, who the hell knows....

all i do know is that im not ready to fold JJ quite yet here (unless ive got a read or dudes running 11/10 or something)...id actually like to call and shove any flop.

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10-17-2008 , 12:35 PM

#15

dereds

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Why call and shove giving him an opportunity to fold raggy pairs I shove this pre, is this a mistake?

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10-17-2008 , 01:28 PM

#16

ajlewis661

adept

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 704

Yeah I guess I was a little bit tired (1am~) didn't realize the guys raise size. It does look like he does not want to be shoved on, but is committing himself.

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10-17-2008 , 01:50 PM

#17

areaman

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Quote:

Originally Posted by dereds

Why call and shove giving him an opportunity to fold raggy pairs I shove this pre, is this a mistake?

yeah, youre right...i dunno what im thinking

i guess i was thinking maybe we can fold out QQ and KK on ace hihg boards...but i think since his range isnt weighted towards those anyways, at least imo, that shoving pre is probably better. brain frrrrrt.

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10-17-2008 , 03:48 PM

#18

homanga

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I think you gotta shake your head and drop this one. If the bet sizing was more reasonable I'd be inclined to call and see a flop. I just don't think we are ahead of hardly any of villains range unless we have been opening often.

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10-17-2008 , 03:49 PM

#19

ssnyc

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Quote:

Originally Posted by homanga

are we dropping it cause we feel bullied by the bet amount or cause we think he has us beat?

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10-17-2008 , 03:54 PM

#20

jchauvin

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 4,761

Quote:

Originally Posted by dereds

Why call and shove giving him an opportunity to fold raggy pairs I shove this pre, is this a mistake?

i shove pre without a second thought and can't imagine anything else being good.

is everyone being serious its JJ and 18bbs in a $2

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10-17-2008 , 03:55 PM

#21

homanga

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Little of both, the bet size leaves us with basically no FE here it leaves us with a shove/fold situation. That being said an UTG+1 normal raising range is probably AJ/AQ+, 22+, therefore putting in this big raise to be looks more like TT+, AK, This is assuming villain is solid and our image has been solid too. Pretty easy to eliminate AQ from his range and I feel like this bet is to induce a shove rather which imo polarizes his range higher. A villain hand like 66-TT should really be flatting this 90% of the time, so to me this looks like a monster?

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10-17-2008 , 03:56 PM

#22

homanga

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Quote:

Originally Posted by jchauvin

i shove pre without a second thought and can't imagine anything else being good.

is everyone being serious its JJ and 18bbs in a $2

I must say I rarely pay attention to BI amounts when posting my opinions and the fact that this is a $2 makes me much more inclined to shove this lol. However I think it is certainly possible to have a spot where dropping JJ pf is possible.

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10-17-2008 , 03:58 PM

#23

dereds

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3balling smaller is more likely to induce a shove as it gives the impression of greater FE surely

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10-17-2008 , 04:01 PM

#24

homanga

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3-betting smaller/normal imo does not induce a shove more than likely it allows for post flop play. Obv AK/KK/AA are gonna reship when you 3-bet small, but most mediocre 88-QQ are gonna flat and play post flop.

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10-17-2008 , 04:07 PM

#25

dereds

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idk I am reading the precise opposite, given that stacks are not sufficient to flat the 3bet to setmine then even a smaller 3 bet creates the same fold/shove decision pre.

The massive 3bet size looks to me as if he is trying to maximise FE, I expect to be racing dominated way more than I expect to be dominated here

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