Super standard. People who say flat flop and fold turn to a second barrel with around 20x behind are being ridiculously results-oriented. Flatting flop is definitely an option, but it shouldn't be with the intention of folding turn - the problem with flatting is that there are a lot of cards that we're gonna hate (spades, 2, 4, 5), so I'd raise-call too. He is the big stack, he is flatting hands like A8o out of the SB (!) and he has 18% DB - very standard to gii. I'd prolly make it a little less OTF - somewhere around 21K - which would still leave you with around a PSB OTT, but at the same time gives him more room to think that he has FE on a 3-bet jam. With that sizing, I don't think anyone even remotely decent is gonna think that you'll ever fold anything.
So if anyone remotely decent doesn't think we're ever folding then why are we sizing to try and get him to 3b the flop? Our hand just isn't strong enough to r/c. He can lead sets/2pr etc here. We fold his bluffs out like I said and not much worse can call. What do you think he's betting flop and suddenly 3b bluffing with?
Getting it in on the flop is miles worse than his call pf.
Firstly, is that 3-bet % actually 2%?? I'm not sure if I'm having a moment here and misreading. You say that he is definitely 3-betting AK and AQ as well? If so that obviously eliminates some of his value range on donking.
My initial thought process suggests flatting his donk. I agree with outdraw that you are in terrible shape nearly all of the time vs his GII range on the flop, maybe with the exception of a spewy AT??? Clearly not enough to justify it though. Flatting keeps his whole range in play and given his donk percentage I think that you are ahead enough of the time if you were marginal, and given that you have TPDK with 20bb you are far from marginal! I'm not much of a stats man (I don't play with a HUD because I am travelling and have the worst laptop since 1996), so I don't always quantify the numbers correctly, but it suggests to me he donks with equity mostly and not as a pure bluff. That means a flush draw is in his range for donking, but given your stack size is he likely to play it that way? Wouldn't check/shoving be more appropriate? I also kind of agree with DrLifeIsGood. Calling the flop with the intention of folding the turn does sound way too exploitable. But what hands does he bet turn with? Generally I think when he does this you are going to be behind a large percentage of the time as it's not a great spot to barrel, even if a spade comes. He will get you to fold KK, QQ and JJ in this spot without holding a spade but not much else so it's almost always for value. And given my reasoning that he rarely has pure bluffs on the flop, surely he is going to try to get to showdown with his Ax and 8x hands now instead of turning them into a bluff?
The turn really seems the issue here and is something of a paradox. Folding is definitely exploitable and something a good player can take advantage of, but calling is also not ideal for the fact you are so often behind! Does that mean calling turn and folding river becomes an option as he has absolutely no perceived fold equity here? This is all assuming he bets the turn. Should he check i think it sucks if he's trapping but he will have done just that. Getting it in then seems a guarantee with 20bb on either turn or river.
Regarding the hand as said call the flop and see what transpires ott. If he bets again im likely calling again and if he checks we have an easy bet. Tbh I find it difficult to fold here vs this player with ~20bb at a 6m tournament and I kinda feel the responses itt are slightly results oriented.