So at the final table 5 remaining, some smalls stake mtt. Villain been pretty active running 30/23 over 55 hands - no other notes/info.

What hands are we calling in this spot? Is this a fold in game? Given that there are no other shorties I was quite surprised with the results when plugging this into Icmizer giving the villian a pushing range of 35%, maybe its not even that high so would make our calling range even tighter. Just would like some opinions, thanks guys.

I think you are vastly under estimating the SBs shoving range here. At a minimum I am shoving 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J3s+, T4s+, 95s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 53s+, A2o+, K2o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o, and 76o. About 57%. If you are calling off too tight, it doesn't matter what I have, I'm shoving all but the worst hands. With his stack, he could be shoving ATC.

Plus you are the shortest stack and most likely to bust out next unless you do something about it. And passing up spots where you have a high equity overlay is not playing for first.

Remember that ICM is limited in the analysis available. It estimates on even levels that your ratio of winning first is the exact % of chips related to the whole. However, when you take into consideration that the SB is set to run over the table with his stack, your current equity using ICM will be vastly over estimated.

Thanks for your reply. Yeah I agree his range is probably a lot wider than I originally estimated given his stack size. If he was middle of the pack there he might be a bit tighter possibly.

I guess I was just a bit surprised how tight icmizer suggested our calling range was given the fact that there are no other shorties. Will have another play around with it but even if his range is somewhere between 35 and 55 I'm sure it's a call in this spot.

^^ This. He's definitely shoving close to any two here.

What makes you guys think he is shoving so wide? We don't have any reads on villain... Has he shoved all in with the SB before? Have you seen him m\r in SB? Does he open a lot in late position?

We should call if the above range is correct and especially because we can expect his stronger range to m\r instead. I don't think he would have AQ+, TT+ here because if he is active he would know to m\r his stronger range and encourage a shove from BB.

I would't be so quick to give him such a wide range, but I think we can expect a flip here at worst and that's what we need to stay in the game.

my question is , say for instance this was not ICM , if this was like mid/late stages and we assumed that V was tight and that he'll shove with say 20% of hands , would it still be profitable to call with k10s?

if we assumed he'll shove with A2s+ 22+ J10s+ K10s+ 89s+ and KQ, so you can imagine that's a pretty tight range to be shoving from the sb. would it be profitable to call with k10s against that range?

this is a good point - given hero has nothing to lose (i.e., it'd be different if hero were a middle stack), villain can't assume that hero will be calling a tight range. (to answer your question, aip, i'm folding if we're not at the final table as villain is likely not pushing as wide.)

i'm inclined to call, nonetheless, as villain is likely pushing a wide range, esp. if hero has not shown a tendency to call light thus far.

Hero insta calls

Villain is massive CL and he is been pretty active, He probably is on ATC here. we have KTs BvB and we are the shortest stack at the table with 16BB.

nh

See i don't get how we get to this conclusion. We have no reads, therefore how can we say he's a good player and know how to use a shoving stack properly. By the way i think shoving ATC here is wrong. I'm not shoving ATC here and mostly relying on a nash chart against a good player. If not then i'll raise\fold a lot depending on the dynamic between SB and BB.

I'm shoving any 2 from SB in this spot, so snap calling with K10s

that's one of the trickiest spots ever for both players. There is a huge decision tree that goes like: is the player good? is shoving > raise folding? and the opposite from the other player.

i agree with gladiator that villain has an unknown wide range that surely doesn' t include top 10% hands that is raise/calling and you need to plug this in the icmizer and post results here

Something we have to keep in mind against unknown is that we can't assume they play and think the way we do. If we would shove any 2 in SB, doesn't mean that villain does it too... I remember Ed Miller talking about this in one of his video. He said it's an error to instantly assume villain would play similarly to us in any given situation. If the player is a good player and we also know what is the best line to take, then we can come up to similar conclusion, but against an unknown, well, we just don't know.

That sounds like a good idea... I want to see results too

I think you are placing too much assumption on the fact that villain is trying to ICM **** us. This is only a small stakes mtt and I had no real reads on him, for all we know he might be pushing the same range as pre final table. Also given that we don't have this read we should be calling tighter with ICM considerations.

To answer your question in terms of pure chip +ev and not taking into account ICM, if villian is pushing 21% of hands we need 44+, A9o+,A8s+ so KTs is a fold.

To answer your question, after plugging this in icmizer, if villian is shoving a pretty tight range of around 30% in this spot KTs is only just a fold, it nets us -0.01%. However if we take out the top of his range AA,KK,QQ,AK,JJ and assume he is min raise inducing with these hands then it becomes clear call and we make loads of money.

Basically after playing around with numbers here I think we can assume this is a clear call in this spot.

Thanks! I had a feeling that the top of his range would make a big difference on the outcome.