Hi folks! Playing the EPT in barcelona. 550€ CUP, but I busted in the bubble of the national 1.1k event the day before in a bad beat and this same day have had two KK < AA in a row, plus a full house against better full house, plus so many of these type of hands that I wasn't exactly tilted but I was in that mindset where you start to doubt every re-raise against you... so would like to check these hand with you, see what the consensus is

Blinds: *100/200*, BB ante *200*
Stacks: early stage of the tournament, all around 20k (100BB)
10 seated

Raise *600* from UTG with KQ
Fold to SB who calls, BB calls

Flop: QQ6
Pot: *2000*
SB check, BB check, I bet *1.2k*
SB re-raises to *4k*
BB calls
Hero calls

Turn: A
Pot: *14k*
check, check, check

River: A
Pot: *14k*
SB raises 5k
BB calls
Hero ??

I honestly have doubts about every street post-flop. Let's open the debate would love to hear your thoughts. Some of my logic:

a) Not sure to 3-bet the flop since the bb cold call 3-bet range there is so strong, there are so many 66s that are trapping there.. But it's not many combos incl. Q6 so not sure if I should deny equity to flush draws as standard play, or even extract value from worst Queens

b) Do we ever bet the turn after a potential flush draw completes?

c) Do we call the river bet? Are we happy calling it?

One of them has Qx (prob SB) and neither has Ax (except for 3 unlikely combos of AQ), so raise to 19k and take the lot

Spoilers below...



It was a rough day

I'd be super tempted to 4bet flop.

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a) i like the flop play ... an argument could have been made for another raise on the flop but generally i prefer the way you played it.
C) yes we are calling it . No we are not happy about calling it since the sb got ax on his range and the bb got aq on his but chances are slim and we pay 5k to win 12k(guessing we will split with someone) so we are getting about 2.5:1 . i think we will get into a split there 1 out of 2 times so yes i would call
B) thats the hardest question you had... i honestly would flip between betting small like 5k to check but i probably would have checked

Overall you play that hand in my opinion the best way. I guess you lost the hand because you asking about it here but that the way poker is played ... sometimes you play correctly and still lose...

1) You need to raise on the flop. The most common scenario there is that one Villian has a weaker Q and the other one has flushdraw.. You need to raise, probably all in, because of SPR ( there are 10K in pot and 20K of stack).

2) and 3) These are spots you shouldn't had to be in...

He does not need to raise the flop the most common scenrio is sb trying to bluff and bb got a flush draw or q or 66-AA or even just a 6 if he thinks the sb bluffing. so he only can get value from the bb . I mean why not calling the flop let the sb hang himself?

Flop is fine :
SB range on c/r will consist in 66/AQ/bluffs. Some opponents love to 3b mid pairs here "to find where they're at", but it's still a bluff (with decent equity actually). 3b would only achieve to have him fold hands you beat, and call you with hand you are crushed by.
As for his bluffs, usually you want to bluff your best folding hands, with some backdoor equity, so mid/bottom pairs, Ax (AcXc being the best) and maybe KsXs (KJs/KTs) and JsTs

And with BB cold calling the c/r, I would be a bit worried of Q6s/66s trapping, even though he mostly has Qx there.
That's why I think calling is best


Turn is I think not optimal:

- SB checks and BB checks.
First of all you can eliminate BB of the equation as I don't see him keeping this passive line with any hand that beats you. Sure he could have a flush, but no decent opponent would flat the flop with a flush draw (and not even the nut flush)

When SB checks, this should raise questions :
- Lot of people are more likely to c/r the flop with the nut flush draw, than a Ks/Js (although I don't think it's a good line). But even if he c/r a flush draw, he would always bet there to get value from Qx and protect his hand. So really this flush shouldn't be a worry.
- His value hands (fullhouses) would bet for value there almost always, especially with the flush now. If he checks he knows it's most likely going to be checked around.
- His bluffs should check and give up a fair amount. Typically you'd want to continue some bluffs that got backdoor equity on this turn, but on this board, this pot and multiway, it's reasonable to abort a lot of bluffs.

Hence I think betting the turn is optimal, probably on the bigger side, because of the 3 spades. It would be pretty bad to check against BB holding QJs for example not to mention KsQ. A case could be made to jam.

On the river BB has almost always a Q here, meaning SB can't have a Q, which is a important info. All together, that means he has 66 turned into a bluff (very unlikely) or a random flop bluff.
Now a lot of flop bluffs have an A in them, best ones being AcXc although that's pretty negligeable on that flop.
Finally, he bets 5k into 14k, which I don't think he could ever get away as a bluff considering the action: a Q isn't likely to fold for this amount, and it's pretty likely BB or you has Qx.

You need to pay 5k to get 24k, even if actually it's 12k since you'd always chop with BB. So you need to beat SB 30% of the time.
As played I would call only if I perceive SB to be somehat spewy or not knowing what he's doing. I have no idea about the field level in this event, but if my opponent is decent, I don't think I win enough of the time.

That said, in most random online tournaments I'd call and complain about how unlucky I got

Really like your thought proccess you are right about the turn(changed my mind because of you).
My question for you is do you think that if you are playing as the bb at the same spot is better to just call with an ace? Since sb most likely got A or bluff so we cant extract more money of him?

He re raises flop and checks turn. Nice line there.

Fold river of course.

Well the only A in BB range is exactly AQ: his child call on the flop is very transparent, he has a Q in his range. Bad opponents could flat a nut flush, but the As turn eliminates this possibility.
So if BB has AQ here he would actually take this line a fair amount of time on flop turn and especially river (to chop two way the money of a third player at worst) but he has much more other Qx combos, and that's pretty passive, do it still is a small party of his range.

But if anything it makes me want to fold more on the river.

Seriously, how often is SB bluffing on the flop with exactly Ax here?

I'd include As in both blind ranges if it didn't arrive ott. But it did arrive, then another A arrives, so the proportion of Ax in opponent ranges is shrinking from unlikely, to very unlikely, to preposterously unlikely.

I still think the correct play here is to assume that Ax is unlikely in V ranges but still possible in Hero range. Qx is almost certain in SB or BB and a flush is possible. So I still advocate we accept the risk that SB has AQ (2 combos) and roll the dice with a river raise to scoop the entire pot.

It's a weird hand and the actual result is very unlikely.

@OP, don't buy any lotto tickets for a while. Avoid mirrors and ladders. Stay away from air planes, especially any with me on it.

That's not how poker works.
Considering action, Ax hands makes up for a good part of SB range. This is obviously very villain dependent, but after his c/r is called two ways in a QQ6 board, it's very likely BB/Hero (or both) holds a Q.
This sizing is really bad for any bluff, as a Q would be very enticed to call.

With BB flatting, and unless villain is very spewy, I'm pretty sure folding is the correct play even if it's disgusting

Yeah, I guess people c/r A-high into two live opponents all the time
I knew I was missing something fundamental about the game

Alright just let me know both opponents ranges on the river that makes calling profitable then

How about you make a solid case for significant Ax in SB range on that action. There is no case at all for BB to have any Ax.

Had you read my previous messages you would know my views.
BB only A is AQ, and is range is [AQ, Qx] heavily skewed towards the Qx. Because of his line and mostly because of combinatories : 2 AQ vs 12 Qx (if we take a tight range pre in his Q of Q9s+ QTo+)

Anyway, as I explained, on the flop when BB cold call the c/r and Hero calls, SB cannot ignore than one of these players has a Q. Especially with the As on the turn, ruling out a (bad) call from BB with the nut flush.

Now as played, on the river SB bets 5k into 12k. BB flats. BB only has Qx (including AQ). We have a Q so SB doesnt have a Q.
What hand, without a Q, would bet into 2 people after seeing his c/r called in 2 spots on a paired flop?
And now if you add his sizing: he gives each of BB and Hero 2.5 to 1 on their call when their range is strong. Besides table dynamics and history, or the 3 players being extremely high skilled players, this is very rarely a bluff (and in theory his optimal bluff frequency is 22% there)

Putting all the pieces together he bets small into very strong opponents, unless he is extremely spewy he is not bluffing, how unlikely it may seem.

Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.

Now your turn, please tell me what hand from the SB makes sense ? Because all his Ax surely do.

I thinkif he takes this line woth an ace high backdoor flush draw, he may take this line with some backdoor flushes+straights meaning 78/j10/jk ect.

On the flop maybe (the backdoor flush draw isn't mandatory, having an A can bring the backdoor boat, but all are fair hands to turn into bluffs). But on the turn? He checks is gutshot? That's weak since hero should bet a lot of his range against a check. And on the river? He bets so small against such narrow strong ranges that this stinks value.
Honestly had he shoved river 16k into 12k pot, I think he would have much more bluff into his range. This sizing sounds to me like he has absolutely no bluff. Yeah this is not balanced but most people are just not, especially in this peculiar of a spot

Yes that’s one possibility, the other possibility is that SB actually has the hand he repped with the 3! (Qx) and that BB has some poorly played flush.

@Topin lol, gee thanks for that condescending dissertation on the fkg obvious. We may be trying to go a little deeper here.

Haven't read any replies.

My first instinct was flop is was too big but I've changed my mind, flop sizing is fine. While it's true that smaller sizing is likely "optimal", there are a bunch of combos in your range for which the EV difference between this sizing and "optimal" (much smaller) sizing is very small, and it's not just Qx and nutted combos.

For example, there's merit to taking a hand like 77 and using this sizing, 77 need a bunch of protection and essentially all 2-over combos besides spades need to fold and OOP player cannot x/r all spades so 77 can extract significant value from worse with this sizing.

Also, bluffs like spade draws do not necessarily mind being bet so large after all they are very high equity.

The point is you can rep a fairly wide, diffuse, somewhat "merged" range here. Which is important to consider OOP player's theoretical flop raise range. You likely cannot capture your WHOLE range with this sizing (way too big to be "optimal") hence why it's not technically "optimal" but if OOP player does not realize this then it does not matter--sizing is fine.

I do think you will tend to be too strong here since in theory you need to also consider cbetting so large with hands like A-high, aforementioned small pairs, etc. such that I do not expect OOP player to be x/r too light and he, being a live V, likely does not x/r nearly enough to begin with.

Also think V's sizing is a bit too big when you think about the fact that his theoretical x/r range of Qx and mainly FDs and also low PPs that need fold equity and protection is a pretty wide, diffuse range (encountering a range like yours with similar properties) which benefits from small sizing.

So I think taken together OOP player is very strong here and mainly has Qx.

OOP player should have basically no Ax besides AsXs combos once we cbet this large. Also he should be x/r some of these AsXs but who knows whether he does that in practice. I think he likely arrives at turn with absolutely 0 naked AX combos (not AQ) given that turn card.

That being said, he actually should have a lot of AQ. An extremely significant amount of AQ actually, in fact how much AQ he has is the crux of this hand.

Once we arrive at river like this, I think this is pretty clearly Qx from OOP player (in theory OOP player arrives at river with, say, 76s or 33-55 all of which make for decent flop x/r candidates and now good bluff candidates, and in theory this is almost surely a river call) but who knows how deep he's digging to add combos to his x/r range--he just simply may not be x/r enough to being with for you to justfy raising river as a bluff .

If you think he x/r flop quite wide (especially Qx, as weak as QT and worse) AND he always folds a chop then sure go for it and jam but be aware that this can be tricky.

AQ is likely a really huge part of his range. So huge such that if he does not x/r flop wide enough (with QT, Q9, etc--if it's say just QJ+ in his x/r range) then you may not generate enough FE to even surpass breakeven EV let alone, because the proportion of naked Qx relative to AQ is too low (he's b/c too frequently to justify raising river). So think river is a clear call to pick off chops and rare bluffs and minimize loss vs AQ which is a very prominent hand in V's range.

In fact, there's a pretty high threshold of how much naked Qx v needs to have relative to AQ in order for raise to even encounter enough potential worse or chops that'll fold. In practice, that threshold may not ever be met by average live V's

So call river.

Eggs do you realize the hand is played 3-way?

Oh sure, BB cold called a c/r with a non flush draw, then kept a passive line when he got there on a dangerous board, and finally called the river on a double paired board against too very strong range.

Sure that makes a lot of sense... If hero is playing against monkeys or a 2$ tourney

Sure, SB can have some bluffs, but if that's the case, after the BB call, is very difficult for him to double or triple barrel and "hang himself".... I don't see why BB can't have Q8-QJ ... Sure he can have 66 and AQo, but there are more combos of Qx we beat that will call a raise , not to mention we need protection against a very possible flushdraw...

Crazy hand.

On the flop when BB cold calls I would put him on Qx. Could be AQ. But at this point with SB c/r to 4k I am shoving on the flop. I think that SB is skewed heavily towards a flush draw. But it is conceivable that SB has a Q in which case BB is terribad and has a flush draw. It is conceivable that both SB and BB have flush draws. I guess it is also conceivable that neither has a Q and BB is calling with like 99 or TT and thinks we were just c-betting with air and SB is bluffing. But in general people in that spot would fold to a bet and a raise...

At this point in the hand I don't care if SB could possibly bluff again. In general when that bluff on the flop is called by 2 players any competent SB will shut down the bluff. Somebody has a Q. I also don't care if either SB or BB has AQ because I am calling down anyway when they continue to bet because there are a lot of other Qx they can have.

As played on the turn, the A actually looks good for us. We are losing to AQ anyway and it means that there are fewer combos of AQ out there. What hurts is that the spades got there. On the other hand, how does a flush check that turn? Maybe its to make it look like they don't have a flush (possible). But because its the A it is starting to look like maybe nobody was drawing to a flush.

I might check back the turn. To see what happens on the river. But I also might jam the turn. Nothing makes sense at this point. And I'd rather not give a free card vs a random .

The river: The only way SB has an A is if the flop c/r is a total bluff. So in that case SB would have ATC. BB doesn't have an A unless he has AQ which is somewhat unlikely given the way the turn and river were played. BB almost always has a Q. But BB could have something silly like a flush and believes SB is bluffing and hero could fold a Q... I think the real question here is would SB ever bluff the river vs 2 players at least one of whom almost always has a Q? I would say no, so that would be why I would fold here. Especially because BB should have a Q here 98% of the time.

On the flop, what does SB's x/r range look like? We can argue that 66 wouldn't even want to raise here, so you can mostly deduce that SB's range is likely going to be Qx and flush draws, maybe a few Acxc hands mixed in. SB may sometimes be 3-betting AQ (unless Hero's UTG+1 image is super tight) and may not always call with stuff like Q8s (must less Q6s).

What does the BB's x/r cold call range look like? I think BB certainly has many more Qx in his range than the SB does (probably most, if not all of the suited Qx and probably Q9o+) but also may have 100% of the AQ here. The BB also will have far more flush draws than either the SB.

However, when the turn checks through, a lot of the assumptions about flush draws go out the window. Unless the SB has exactly KsJs/KsTs/Ks9s, it makes no sense for the SB to not continue on that turn. And you can argue that KJ/KT/K9 do benefit from continuing vs. BB and UTG+1 ranges that contain tons of Qx. It is certainly possible the BB has made flushes that are intending to call down.

So when the SB bets river, the SB's range certainly has some AQ, but also has worse Qx that may bet for value. So I believe we can beat the SB's range. The problem is that the BB called, and the BB - as noted - is almost always calling with a Q. There is some universe where the SB is betting thin with QJ/QT and the BB is hero calling with a flush (or the SB is running some wacky bluff and the BB has a worse Q) but probably not often enough to justify the call.