1st level, no reads

50/100

25k effective stacks

Utg makes it 200, MP calls, we call in BB with A7cc.

Flop A86hcc. Check, Utg bets 524, MP calls, we make it 2025. Both call

Turn Jh we bet 4844, Utg folds, MP calls .

River 10h. Thoughts? I'm now hating my club blockers, although I suppose it's good we hold a 7.

I don't think I c/r the flop 1st level in $215 event. Most players with an A are too sticky here and (as you've seen) barrelling isn't too likely to get them off of it, plus we do have sdv.

As played, I'm cutting my losses and hoping for it to x through on river.

That's a really horrible barrel OTT

Agree with above. J doesn’t really help some parts of our x-raise range like 75/79/cc etc. I think you should just flat flop this early in a tournament with a great structure. Think I would be more of a fan of x-raise if we were against one Villian here. I think flop sizing could be bigger also when it goes bet call bc we kinda wanna thin the field.

OK Eggs. But now that we are heads up on the river, what's the best course of action. I'm wondering how strong villain's hand can really be if they are just calling 4 times on this Texture.

You've got way better value and way weaker combos to bluff so you check.

You intuition is right that he doesn't have much that can snap but him being a potential station hurts you really bad here because the only potential overcalling combos in his range are all beating you.

Turn bet is really bad though because he is prob not folding AK even though you rep really strong and he should be folding. You just x/r into a range against which you own like 5% pot share of EV OTF: his cbet is insanely strong.

You're really in a crappy spot OTT this combo is just a xf if he can't be moved off better Ax OTT which I'm assuming you think he can be.

You certainly get no better to fold and no worse to continue when you do barrel, assuming he stations AQ-AK.

Thing about this turn is it's not as dry as it seems, Th9h, 9h7h, 8h6h, 7h5h all turning FDs means you have lots of extra combos to barrel here as bluffs, so you can barrel wider for value, so he is heavily incentivized to basically always float bet the turn here when you x, you're actually extremely capped when you x this particular turn and given that Ac7c gets no better to fold or no worse to call it's pretty much pinned to your very capped x range so it's pretty much impossible to defend this combo at this point.

He's basically always got you beat and can easily deny equity with a moderate probe OTT, and you simply cannot defend with this combo against his range at this point.

Wait, you're saying we should be check folding top pair with nut flush draw on the turn 230 bbs deep??

Yup, I'm not sure you're really thinking about what he's repping when he cbets that sizing into 2 people then calls a xr and how Ac7c stacks up against the range with which he arrives at turn

His deviations are only gonna hurt you too. The less floating he does OTT the stronger his floating range is and the worse Ac7c is doing.

Your combo isn't that strong anymore.

Your combo is completely indefensible on basically all non club rivers including 7's and including A's with IP repping so much 66, 88, AT+ and some AA when he takes this flop sizing.

So how do you actually expect to turn a profit with this combo at this juncture of the hand?

Do you expect him to fold AQ-AK when you barrel?

We have no reads but I definitely think he can let go of AQ (and mind you Utg did fold on turn to the barrel). I also think he re-raises often on flop with sets given a 3rd player in the hand so I don't think Utg has sets a lot here. Regardless, I don't know anyone x/f tpnfd here this deep though I understand you not liking the barrel. All that said, I still can't figure out what MP has here that refuses to fold and doesn't want to raise with all of these draws on the board. It feels like A6s, A8s possibly.. Or some 97s, although I block a little of all of that

I do indeed check the river and MP snap bets half pot. The ten really sucks as his 97s get there as well has his KQcc

I’m just calling flop. AP, x/c turn. AP (again) x/f.

Honestly didn't even realize it was mutiway.

OTT only combos that make sense for UTG is him being squeezed off AQ, AK, and a small amount of worse Ax, but I think 2 players in the hand makes turn even worse

Also flop xr is sweet but way too big

What sizing do you think is optimal when x/r a bet and call?

Why are we reading so much into flop sizing, first level no reads? Yes, this should be much smaller, but that doesn’t mean Villain bet this size strictly with strong hands. Could easily be a button click, or a scared Ax that just wants to take it down now.

I really like just calling the flop with this hand. If we raise all of our flush draws, what does our calling range look like?

I don't think we do either ALL of the time. I mix it up. Early on in re-buy events, I'll apply max pressure sometimes and go for the full double/put them to a test for their full stack if the texture fits (and just re-enter if it doesn't work out). This is a particularly bad river card though.

Lost in all of this, nobody seems willing to guess what villain has here. 4 calls, no raises on a dripping wet board.

You're asking the wrong questions young Padawan