I starting playing these double or nothings, they seem unreasonably easy, what is a pro DON player expected to win % wise?
Thanks much
my don results below, sorry for the format

296171466 29-Jul-10 00:39 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 1/10 $4.60
296171430 29-Jul-10 00:36 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 1/10 $4.60
294908773 25-Jul-10 01:08 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $10 9/10 -$10.80
294870732 24-Jul-10 21:09 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 1/10 $4.60
294871021 24-Jul-10 21:07 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 1/10 $4.60
294869911 24-Jul-10 20:57 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 8/10 -$5.40
294868790 24-Jul-10 20:50 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 1/10 $4.60
294870940 24-Jul-10 20:49 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 1/10 $4.60
294868765 24-Jul-10 20:30 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 1/10 $4.60
294868820 24-Jul-10 20:24 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 1/10 $4.60
294869686 24-Jul-10 20:24 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 1/10 $4.60
294642516 24-Jul-10 05:27 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 1/10 $4.60
294642666 24-Jul-10 05:08 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 1/10 $4.60
294642677 24-Jul-10 05:05 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 1/10 $4.60
294641721 24-Jul-10 05:03 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 8/10 -$5.40
294641359 24-Jul-10 05:03 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 1/10 $4.60
294641129 24-Jul-10 04:46 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 1/10 $4.60
294629467 24-Jul-10 04:14 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 1/10 $4.60
294629499 24-Jul-10 03:53 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 1/10 $4.60
294629479 24-Jul-10 03:51 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 1/10 $4.60
294632024 24-Jul-10 03:49 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 1/10 $4.60
294629489 24-Jul-10 03:39 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 10/10 -$5.40
294631370 24-Jul-10 03:31 NL Holdem [Turbo : Blinds level increase faster than normal.] [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 1/10 $4.80
294304434 23-Jul-10 03:08 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 1/10 $4.60
294304177 23-Jul-10 03:00 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 7/10 -$5.40
294304165 23-Jul-10 02:52 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 1/10 $4.60
294304410 23-Jul-10 02:45 NL Holdem [Double or Nothing : Half of the players double their buy in.] $5 1/10 $4.60

no money in DON, everyone is solid.

about three fiddy

How can you say, it's easy? You lost 100% of your $10.80 tournaments...

play 1o0o games and then we will talk.











BTW you are on a heater no matter how good you are.

fyp.

Shouldnt it say half the player double their buyin's'?

Oh and OP, Play at least 25 more before you start to make too many assumptions.

Thanks for summarising the info in an easy to read format.

Read the FAQ for sample sizes.

No, DoNs are not really this easy, you've just run hot. Seriously, not hating, just being honest.

Your micro sample shows an ITM in excess of 80%. This is completely unsustainable. Over this handful of games you are just ran very, very good — way better than you (or anyone else) would be expected to do.

You will need to get in around 5,000 games to have even the slightest confidence in your expectation in these games. To give you an idea of volumes that good players get through, there many who multitable these DoNs on Stars 25+ games at the same time for hours every day, and they may get in 1000 games in a week, the same time as you took for about 28 games


A really top player in $5 DoNs on Stars might be able to finish ITM about 60% in the turbos, maybe a couple % extra for the regular speed ones. This equates to having an ROI of around 15%.

As the buyin increases, so the opponents get better, and the maximum achievable ITM decreases sharply.

Don't think you've solved DoNs based on this sample, it's not even possible to say that you are a winning player at this level.

GL

another ****ing case where someone starts DoNs and runs incredibly hot. I really think this is the biggest proof it's all rigged .

ROI in DoNs are probably the lowest of pretty much anything at whatever stake you play them at, but they're so easy to multitable so hourly it all changes. I can comfortably play around 16 SNGs, but for DoNs, I can do 32+ easily.