Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $50(BB) Replayer
SB ($1,455)
BB ($1,470)
UTG ($1,765)
UTG+1 ($1,180)
Hero ($1,515)
MP1 ($2,875)
MP2 ($3,230)
CO ($1,435)
BTN ($75)

Dealt to Hero Q Q

fold, fold, Hero raises to $200, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $175, fold

FLOP ($495) 4 2 7

SB checks, Hero bets $350, SB calls $350

TURN ($1,195) 4 2 7 A

SB checks, Hero


Villian is 16/13 over a decent sample.

raise to 125-150
I think he may have 88-QQ, but he may floated with AQ or AK, though spot.
maybe try to check it down

bump for night crowd

Agree to raising less pre, 150.
As played flop bet is fine, a smaller raise preflop would allow you to bet less.
I'd probably check behind on turn and check or call a reasonable on river.

+1 the 150 pf

as played i would try to check it down since he most likely has a pair smaller than yours

Preflop raise was fine so was the c bet on the flop I would check the turn and see what the river brings and what he does.

I like to check behind. Prob call the river unless its a huge bet or a diamond or K comes. I dont really see a guy with stats like that floating with AK or AQ on that flop. I think 99 to JJ is prob more likely. I've seen some decent regs play KK tricky like this before.

I think the pre betsizing is ok as long as youre playing AA and KK the same way. Maybe 175 or so, but I think 125 is too small because there are antes.

I really think raising to 150 here is a mistake, i sometimes raise to 250 even in these spots. Villians are calling off wide enough to make this +EV IMO. You need to get rid of semi-donks who will call with decent hands, and focus on the true donks who are 30VPIP+.

Really looking more for flop/turn+ analysis, not preflop

bet definedly less in preflop->flop is ok->checking turn seems to be ok
river...any diamond or K would make me fold but if a blanc comes i would call a decent bet.if he checks river obv check back.

I think it's appropriate to elaborate here. Me and villian both checked turn. River Comes another ace. I bet 450....

Also, why are you people betting to 150 Pre?? I really would appreciate an explanation to this, don't just say it and move on. explain your rationale behind this one because i just don't get it. What villians are calling a PF raise of 100 that won't call a 150-200 raise with their range?

i assume 1 of the reasons is because QQ isn't that strong in a DoN, and i don't see how you can argue everybody that's calling 150 will call 250 with the same hands....

I don't think I'm betting the river. I just can't see us getting many calls there with worse.

The 150 bet preflop would be partly for chip preservation. Even though its QQ, at this stage I don't really want to build too big a pot preflop in a DoN (or even a reg SNG) so a smaller bet allows me to get away from it easier post-flop if there is a lot of action. Or if you fancy your hand it allows for a bit more play postflop to maximise a win.

You said earlier you wanted to focus on the true donks with a VPIP of 30+ but I rarely see enough of these around now to make this approach profitable. I can just see it getting you into tricky situations where you will be either way ahead or way behind.

I like a 125-150 PFR also. You're going to see an over card like half the time and if you're stuck OOP on a Kxx or Axx board, you're in a really bad spot.

Turn is very standard WA/WB check. If villain bets the river, calling is entirely based on the sizing. If villain bets the river, I like a small value bet. I rarely see people check a very strong hand on the river and I think fewer will check/raise all in on a bluff. 88-JJ is a huge portion of villains range which we can get value from. I like something like a 250-350 value bet.

+1
This man knows what he is talking about.

Smokey I like your preflop raise also. why would you make it cheap for some one to play you in position. QQ is a monster preflop. And it still is on the flop. The only way you are in a bad position is if some one called your 4x raise with 77, 44, 22 or Ad Kd. The small pocket pairs are highly unlikely and if he flopped a nut flush draw well don't make it cheap for him to draw to it. In reality you only fear AK of diamonds or KK+. Now if he called you with any other hand you want to build a big pot on the flop where you are usually a 70%+ favorite most of the time here. If he has AQ non- diamonds you have him drawing to 3 outs. Well played preflop and on the flop. Unlucky turn but in the long run you make money 70%+ of the time. Sounds like this is one of the 30% but I think it was well played.