Quote:
Originally Posted by allinontheturn
OK I got bored so I ran some numbers assuming a 80% shoving range:
Fold:
My ICM Equity will be .1613. Multiplied by the prize pool which is $1980. Which is an Ev of $319.40
Call:
I'm losing 64.5% here so my Ev would be $235.62 64.5% of the time.
If I win my ICM Equity will be .2209. Multiplied by the prize pool which is $1980. Which is an Ev of $437.40
I'm winning 35.5% here so .355(437.40) + .645(235.62) = $307.25
Wow, so Fold has a higher Ev than call .... I guess I'm a little suprised, although it's really close.
Although I think this analysis underestimates the HU advantage I'd have over this particular player, so if I won with 92o here I think my ICM Equity would be higher than .2209 in practice. It also might overestimate how wide SB is shoving here.
Super boarderline overall.
Hes shoving ATC here, not top 80%. I'm indifferent to calling or folding here tbh