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Do I Actually Need to Call Here? Do I Actually Need to Call Here?

12-04-2008 , 07:38 AM
Preamble:

Drinking tonight, so I'm only playing donkaments. $11+$1 180 man Turbo on Stars. peteroma2713 went from 3rd to first in 2 hands first doubling up through me then Stubby73 in consecutive hands, so I'm second in chips but my M is about 2 starting this hand and Stubby73's is about 1.5.

Payouts:

1st: $594
2nd: $396
3rd: $235.62

PokerStars Game #22607940624: Tournament #124771393, $11+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level XXI (4000/8000) - 2008/12/04 3:45:14 ET
Table '124771393 5' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 5: Stubby73 (23905 in chips)
Seat 7: resonator_21 (31707 in chips)
Seat 8: peteroma2713 (214388 in chips)
Stubby73: posts the ante 800
resonator_21: posts the ante 800
peteroma2713: posts the ante 800
Stubby73: posts small blind 4000
resonator_21: posts big blind 8000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to resonator_21 [9s 2h]
peteroma2713: folds
Stubby73: raises 15105 to 23105 and is all-in
resonator_21: folds
Uncalled bet (15105) returned to Stubby73
Stubby73 collected 18400 from pot
Stubby73: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 18400 | Rake 0
Seat 5: Stubby73 (small blind) collected (18400)
Seat 7: resonator_21 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: peteroma2713 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Getting about 2:1 on a call. Do I need to call any two cards here? I think I may have misplayed it. His range ought to be HUGE. I'm 35.5% if he's shoving top 80% which I think is probably about accurate. If I fold I'm in basically swapping chip positions with him w/o a showdown.

Postamble:

I went out next hand KJ off all in against 22 and bricking out of course for third. Usually better than way, if I'd have caught a K or a J there I probably wouldn't be thinking about how I could/should have played this hand differently.

I usually make some donktasticly aggressive calls, but I think I may have missed one here. 92 off is about as bad as it gets. I'm like a 95/5 cash/tourney player so I don't really know what I'm doing. Any feedback would be great! Thanks!
Do I Actually Need to Call Here? Quote
12-04-2008 , 09:31 AM
OK I got bored so I ran some numbers assuming a 80% shoving range:

Fold:

My ICM Equity will be .1613. Multiplied by the prize pool which is $1980. Which is an Ev of $319.40

Call:

I'm losing 64.5% here so my Ev would be $235.62 64.5% of the time.

If I win my ICM Equity will be .2209. Multiplied by the prize pool which is $1980. Which is an Ev of $437.40

I'm winning 35.5% here so .355(437.40) + .645(235.62) = $307.25

Wow, so Fold has a higher Ev than call .... I guess I'm a little suprised, although it's really close.

Although I think this analysis underestimates the HU advantage I'd have over this particular player, so if I won with 92o here I think my ICM Equity would be higher than .2209 in practice. It also might overestimate how wide SB is shoving here.

Super boarderline overall.

Last edited by allinontheturn; 12-04-2008 at 09:38 AM.
Do I Actually Need to Call Here? Quote
12-04-2008 , 09:47 AM
strike this my bad
Do I Actually Need to Call Here? Quote
12-04-2008 , 11:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by allinontheturn
OK I got bored so I ran some numbers assuming a 80% shoving range:

Fold:

My ICM Equity will be .1613. Multiplied by the prize pool which is $1980. Which is an Ev of $319.40

Call:

I'm losing 64.5% here so my Ev would be $235.62 64.5% of the time.

If I win my ICM Equity will be .2209. Multiplied by the prize pool which is $1980. Which is an Ev of $437.40

I'm winning 35.5% here so .355(437.40) + .645(235.62) = $307.25

Wow, so Fold has a higher Ev than call .... I guess I'm a little suprised, although it's really close.

Although I think this analysis underestimates the HU advantage I'd have over this particular player, so if I won with 92o here I think my ICM Equity would be higher than .2209 in practice. It also might overestimate how wide SB is shoving here.

Super boarderline overall.
Hes shoving ATC here, not top 80%. I'm indifferent to calling or folding here tbh
Do I Actually Need to Call Here? Quote
12-05-2008 , 09:57 PM
Yeah, shrug.
Do I Actually Need to Call Here? Quote

      
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