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Deep WPT run, shove or fold?

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04-19-2017 , 06:18 AM

Scubafish

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 16

Blinds at 2500/5000 with a 1000 ante, 1500 players to start 40 players left.

UTG Player- 400,000. is opening once or twice a round, havent seen too many of his hands because he usually gets through without a showdown
UGT +1- 80,000 he hasn't really played any pots in 2 rounds since he lost about 100,000 when he called an all in when he had pocket J and lost
Hero- 150,000 in MP, I haven't player many hands in the last couple rounds.

UTG Opens for 12,000
UGT+1 shoves for 80,000
Folds around to hero with 10 10
Hero?

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04-19-2017 , 12:18 PM

jonrubs

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 1,999

fold fairly happily

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04-19-2017 , 02:20 PM

Mench

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 4,038

If 40 players are left, are tables playing 8 handed at this point? Or 10 handed?

If 10, clear fold, if 8, its closer.

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04-19-2017 , 02:41 PM

lolposting2016

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 2,149

pretty ez fold vs utg positions

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04-19-2017 , 03:28 PM

Howard Treesong

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 13,738

Please tell us how many of UTG's opens are from UTG or UTG+1. Normally this should be a fold, assuming UTG+1 is even slightly aware of positional issues. But if UTG is opening once a round from early position and UTG+1 recognizes that, my views might change.

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04-19-2017 , 03:39 PM

jonrubs

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 1,999

Quote:

Originally Posted by Howard Treesong

still think it would be a fold given # of people behind us

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04-20-2017 , 08:36 AM

monikrazy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 28,286

If utg has been raising a lot, including from early positions, I think getting it in is clearly +ev. Covering utg+1 makes it better. Would be very sensitive to pay jumps / short stacks likely to bust soon as reasons in favor of making a tight fold.

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04-20-2017 , 09:36 AM

Howard Treesong

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 13,738

To state the obvious, the real question is the equity you have against UTG. If Hero has any significant fold equity against UTG, a jam makes sense. If UTG is opening on wheel suited aces, pairs below TT, or suited connectors 98 or lower, he's got to fold those out, and I kind of think this is a jam. If UTG is opening twice a round, this seems pretty likely.

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