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Deep in WPT Montreal... Deep in WPT Montreal...

02-14-2017 , 12:18 AM
I began day 3 of WPT Montreal (3200+300 w 380 players) in 17th place out of 28 remaining with 280k (28bbs) at 5-10-1k. We redrew at the end of day 2 and the field will again at 27 with 28th paying $6720 CDN and 27th receiving $8100.

Hero is 29, extremely talkative/loud local semi-pro (mostly mid to high stakes live plo cash games) who plays very aggressively and likely has that image to most.

Second hand of the day hero doubles up the shortest stack remaining in the field: http://www.worldpokertour.com/live_u...0005000-10000/

After losing that hand 28 players still remain and hero is down to roughly 19 bbs when it's folded to him on the button with the small blind behind the player who just doubled off hero and the big blind being Kelly Kellner who's among the chip leaders at 800k: http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/play...030.1451701904

Hero: 76 raises to 22k
SB: folds
BB (Kellner): calls
Flop: K75
BB checks, Hero 18k, BB very quickly check-raises to 45k...
'While Stoffmaker thinks quietly, Kellner is having a good time chatting with the rest of the table, openly pondering whether Stoffmaker or Matthew Wilkins (sitting on the other side of the table) has more success with women. (Kellner says it in a complimentary way, telling them that they are both good-looking men.)'

Thoughts on how hand was played up until this point and what do u do from here?

Results can be found here as WPT.com reported the flop action incorrectly: https://events.playgroundpoker.ca/wi...rings-re-draw/
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02-14-2017 , 12:36 AM
Wouldn't cbet
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02-14-2017 , 01:13 AM
Fold, you are destroyed by his raising range. Might not c-bet at this stack depth. Also, ship pre is fine.
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02-14-2017 , 01:50 AM
Ship pre is monster spew
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02-14-2017 , 02:24 AM
Cbetting this flop is so bad. I can't really comment on where to go from here because I make a point to never ever get in these spots
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02-14-2017 , 11:42 AM
This is the first time I had played w villain but from what I've heard he can def play an extremely wild and unconventional style.

I assume that he'd just rip any good hands pre, especially most if not all kings although maybe fold K2-K4o? although given what I've heard possibly not.

I was than happy to cbet and try to take down the pot right there instead of checking back and having to face a lot of difficult turn spots.

If he does call, I assume it's gonna be with hands that I have crushed the majority of time like 45, 56.

When he check raised me, I think he's heavily waited towards draws such as open ended, gutshots and flush draws which my hand isn't in such bad shape against.

He could also def just be doing this with air trying to put pressure me and take it down right there and I don't think I can ever just call his check-raise so I decided to rip it and he showed up w K9o, turn 3 but I missed
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02-14-2017 , 12:14 PM
I think it's a fold pre against a big stack in the bb. Also I think villain's checkraise with K9 is kinda suspect. I am surprised he didn't just call.
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02-14-2017 , 12:15 PM
Shipping pre is not good. We are much to deep for that.
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02-14-2017 , 12:35 PM
anyways as played, what do you guys do after he check raises? stick it in like I did or somehow find a fold?
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02-14-2017 , 01:34 PM
I'd advise against the cbet, but don't think it's as bad as it's being made out to be. That said, I just look at this as a pretty clear bet/fold texture. Nothing wrong with bet/folding in certain spots.
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02-14-2017 , 02:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cicakman
Ship pre is monster spew
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazy Joe Davola
Shipping pre is not good. We are much to deep for that.
2+2ers still not familiar with nash shoving ranges? It's closer to the bottom of cEV Nash shoving range, but even if adjusted against ICM (which is really relevant for us given our stack and position and the fact that we are deep itm) it's still a profitable shove. Opening is ok too, but going against math and saying that shoving is incorrect is just stupid. Also, given how grossly narrow live players are calling 15-20bb shoves this shove is just printing money.

Quote:
Originally Posted by stoffmakers
anyways as played, what do you guys do after he check raises? stick it in like I did or somehow find a fold?
Just fold, why the hell are you sticking it in? Most of his draws are ahead or flipping with your hand, his made hands have you dead or almost dead, what are you, in some kind of suicide squad?
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02-14-2017 , 02:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mad1Lee
2+2ers still not familiar with nash shoving ranges? It's closer to the bottom of cEV Nash shoving range, but even if adjusted against ICM (which is really relevant for us given our stack and position and the fact that we are deep itm) it's still a profitable shove. Opening is ok too, but going against math and saying that shoving is incorrect is just stupid. Also, given how grossly narrow live players are calling 15-20bb shoves this shove is just printing money.



Just fold, why the hell are you sticking it in? Most of his draws are ahead or flipping with your hand, his made hands have you dead or almost dead, what are you, in some kind of suicide squad?
I thought it was close between shoving and opening but I elected for opening to try and make the hand play out as long as possible and see if someone would bust at another table to get the payjump before then.

Villain isn't a random, people have told me he can be very spewy. I didn't ever really consider ever calling and tanked for several minutes and came close to folding a few times in my mind.

table talk/live tells def played a part where given what was said/displayed, I never though he's showing up with a king there (like I said earlier, I expect him to shove most kings pre and like someone else said, just call instead of check raise my cbet).

I rly don't think his made hands have me as dead or close to it as you think, what really beats me that isn't 3betting me pre and raising the flop? if he has 2 overs with a flush draw, were still basically flipping. not sure he rly shows up with many better 7s as played and since I have a blocker. he can also have total air and fold to a shove ya know.
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02-14-2017 , 02:38 PM
I'm not saying that I played the hand optimally as I def don't think I did FYI
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02-14-2017 , 02:44 PM
98s, 86s, 84s, 9Ts, AsXs etc are slight favourites against you. You are flipping against 74s, 73s, 72s. 76s freerolls you, 87s+ has you crushed. 75o, K5o, K7o, any K he decides to gii otf has you crushed. Also if he by any chance played AA that way, you are also crushed. That's like gazillion of hands. Is that enough? Can you come up with the at least half as many pure bluffs that he folds?
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02-14-2017 , 02:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mad1Lee
98s, 86s, 84s, 9Ts, AsXs etc are slight favourites against you. You are flipping against 74s, 73s, 72s. 76s freerolls you, 87s+ has you crushed. 75o, K5o, K7o, any K he decides to gii otf has you crushed. Also if he by any chance played AA that way, you are also crushed. That's like gazillion of hands. Is that enough? Can you come up with the at least half as many pure bluffs that he folds?
you'd think he's re-raising AsXs pre no?

given his image/rep/what I've been told, he def has more bluffs in his range than you might think so (espec given our stack sizes and that we're on a payjump which everyone is aware of)...or maybe not, I guess we'll never know.

Put yourself in his shoes tho, if he has that range of hands that you mentioned, what is he trying to accomplish by raising vs what my perceived range is? the range you gave him is heavily waited towards draws, dunno if he expected me to fold a 7 there and I highly doubt he expects me not to jam better but again who knows, wug toughts?
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02-14-2017 , 03:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stoffmakers
you'd think he's re-raising AsXs pre no?

given his image/rep/what I've been told, he def has more bluffs in his range than you might think so (espec given our stack sizes and that we're on a payjump which everyone is aware of)...or maybe not, I guess we'll never know.

Put yourself in his shoes tho, if he has that range of hands that you mentioned, what is he trying to accomplish by raising vs what my perceived range is? the range you gave him is heavily waited towards draws, dunno if he expected me to fold a 7 there and I highly doubt he expects me not to jam better but again who knows, wug toughts?
I am sorry but your logic seriously tilts me. I just gave tonns of very realistic hands that he check-raises and that have you crushed. Excluding AsXs from there is not helping. Against his draws you are either a small dog or flipping. AGAINST DRAWS LIKE 7spadesXspades YOU ARE BAMBOOZLED. K5o, K7o, 75o and suited versions of this HAVE YOU DRAWING DEAD. Against any Kx you are a huge dog.

What is he trying to acomplish by raising here and now? Trying to get value from a fish like yourself, who only sees bluffs in his opponents ranges. And he would suceed because you chose worst hand possible to 3b/gii otf.
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02-14-2017 , 03:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mad1Lee
I am sorry but your logic seriously tilts me. I just gave tonns of very realistic hands that he check-raises and that have you crushed. Excluding AsXs from there is not helping. Against his draws you are either a small dog or flipping. AGAINST DRAWS LIKE 7spadesXspades YOU ARE BAMBOOZLED. K5o, K7o, 75o and suited versions of this HAVE YOU DRAWING DEAD. Against any Kx you are a huge dog.

What is he trying to acomplish by raising here and now? Trying to get value from a fish like yourself, who only sees bluffs in his opponents ranges. And he would suceed because you chose worst hand possible to 3b/gii otf.
or maybe he doesn't always have those hands and he has complete garbage a lot that he's turning into a bluff to get me to fold the best hand? ur making an awful lot of assumptions without actually reading the description of the guy that I provided.

in any case it doesn't matter because what happened happened. but ALSO I never said I was a NLHE tourney expert given that I've played a handful of them in the past few years (like I said I'm a plo cash reg and I FT'd the WSOP $10k PLO last summer FYI). but sure call me a fish all you'd like if it makes you feel good about yourself.
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02-14-2017 , 04:24 PM
it's close but I think I fold pre. As played we only have 19bbs here, unless we smash the board I'm folding vs the c/r. Sure he can be bluffing here, but as someone said what is he trying to accomplish by c/r here with your stack size, villain wants a call here or a punt as he basically has no fold equity. It's a line that screams "I want your chips"

Unless there's some real meta game going on here I think you probably know you made a mistake when you decided to GII.

Last edited by onehandatatime; 02-14-2017 at 04:32 PM.
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02-14-2017 , 05:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mad1Lee
2+2ers still not familiar with nash shoving ranges? It's closer to the bottom of cEV Nash shoving range, but even if adjusted against ICM (which is really relevant for us given our stack and position and the fact that we are deep itm) it's still a profitable shove. Opening is ok too, but going against math and saying that shoving is incorrect is just stupid. Also, given how grossly narrow live players are calling 15-20bb shoves this shove is just printing money.
Curious, how are you using the Nash charts in practice? To play unexploitably, we need to be shoving AA as well as 76s, but with 19 BBs we almost definitely make more by open/calling AA.

I mostly play live, and have been taking the exploitable strategy of shoving the bottom/middle of the Nash ranges with >~14-15 BBs and open/calling with the top end. If I've done this a lot recently and people seem to be noticing, then I adapt by shoving big hands too.
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02-14-2017 , 05:56 PM
On your open, was plan to raise/fold to 3bet? Dont hate a raise there, prob 50/50 raise vs fold.

Against said V probably don't Cbet, and folding when he 3b.
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02-14-2017 , 06:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stoffmakers
or maybe he doesn't always have those hands and he has complete garbage a lot that he's turning into a bluff to get me to fold the best hand? ur making an awful lot of assumptions without actually reading the description of the guy that I provided.

in any case it doesn't matter because what happened happened. but ALSO I never said I was a NLHE tourney expert given that I've played a handful of them in the past few years (like I said I'm a plo cash reg and I FT'd the WSOP $10k PLO last summer FYI). but sure call me a fish all you'd like if it makes you feel good about yourself.
I feel like I am being deliberately trolled.

But in case you are serious. You heard about ranges, right? How you are suppose to construct your equity against a range, not against specific hands you put villain on. So if you think he "has complete garbage a lot that he is turning into a bluff", please, be so kind and provide a realistic range of that "garbage bluff". Because to justify your 3bet shove he has to bluff with half of the deck. Here is a breakdown where I gave him an extremely generous bluffing range (that I honestly never seen anyone having in those spots) just for your paranoid "but what if they bluffing me" state of mind:

Board: Ks7d5s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 35.78% 35.24% 0.54% { 7h6h }
MP3 64.22% 63.69% 0.54% { KTs-K2s, 98s, 86s, 75s, 64s, 43s, Jd9d, Td9d, Qd8d, Jd8d, Qd6d, Jd6d, KTo-K2o, 98o, 86o, 75o, 43o }

And yes you are a fish, but it's nothing to be ashamed of, maybe you crush high stakes PLO games, what do I know, but since you are a fish in NLHE and asked for advice here, don't be so stubborn when someone with more experience gives you that advice. If you keep replying "But what if he always bluffs" then don't ask for any advice, you already know that he bluffs there 99% then be happy with your 76hh 3bet shove. It's a shame you got it in drawing dead, got really unlucky it was that 1% of times when he didn't bluff, but you sure showed him you ain't the one to be pushed over.
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02-14-2017 , 06:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mad1Lee
It's a shame you got it in drawing dead
??? Hero has something like 21% equity.

And in case you were being hyperbolic....if you have never won as a 4 to 1 dog, you don't have as much experience as you previously claimed.

Last edited by Crazy Joe Davola; 02-14-2017 at 06:43 PM.
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02-14-2017 , 07:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cicakman
Ship pre is monster spew
Shove shows profit you fish, but opening probably is better. Def not spew to shove pre though.

First off I wanna compliment OP on getting a bad beat and a brag past everyone in first post.

The combination of what I assume his range is in general after c/r'ing with him sitting and talking seeming extremely comfortable makes me feel really fine with folding. I might continue this flop if it had one heart on it. I don't think c-betting is as bad as people are making it out to be. Getting JTo to fold 6 outs is a win. We get value from 5x, we often get a free river from our small c-bet, and we're not completely guessing when he leads turn. Most turns are bad for our hand as well. If villain is known to c/r a ton, then we better have a plan when we c-bet, but otherwise I think a bet is fine. It feels really close to me as to which is better, betting or checking, so I'm probably checking back this flop if it contains a heart (less bad turns since all hearts give us equity) and betting this specific flop.

As played I'm finding a fold. Even if villain has just a flush draw without a pair or straight draw to go with it (such as JsTs), he is a favorite against our hand and I do not think he'll be c/r'ing to fold. I think he feels fine c/r'ing a king to get it in with these stacks, and I imagine Kx makes up a pretty big chunk of his range since I think his draws will c/r bigger unless they are huge draws like 8s6s. Haven't looked at results yet but I do expect him to just have a hand like KTo a ton in this spot.
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02-14-2017 , 08:34 PM
shove pre is fine /+Ev prolly not optimal
flop cbet for small size is probably good for value/protection. a whole bunch of his kx should just be loling and slamming it in pf vs this btn raise @19bb (ak, kq,kj,kts are all prty easy jams pre)
so u obv have a big range adv on this flop. but villain looks like some loliveament fish who plays way 2 tight pre in these 20bb spots
he probably has kq exactly tbh
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02-15-2017 , 02:35 AM
just looked at the results, lmao, I would be really embarassed if I were OP. But hey, probably a unique case villain having a made hand here, next time he will surely raise call 43o.
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