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The deep run, no cash dilemma The deep run, no cash dilemma

09-08-2016 , 11:32 AM
The MTT at hand: A live, weekly, $220 buy-in, usually120-150 entries and 10% of the field gets paid.

The dilemma: I've played in it 5 times and its seems like the same thing has happened each time. I usually get 2-3 decent hands where i can accumulate some chips....than i just get completely card dead, until i basically am looking to get it all in preflop and just hope to not be flipping. Ive finished in the 30's three simes, 25 once and 60th.

My observations: these people that I am playing with are complete idiots...they are fine with firing 3,4 or even 5 bullets in the tournament and they play like garbage...raising under the gun with low pocket pairs...calling out of position with rags...way over valuing king high hands...not raising to get players out but to just basically invite everyone in the hand than complain when there AA or KK gets cracked. Another observation that i made is that the people who are accumulating chips arent making any ridiculous sick plays....they arent making hard calls or folds, they generally have there opponents coolered and they just chip up that way.

The realization: Ive played a few tourneys like this one, but this one particularly 5 times, but what ive realized is being good doesnt give you that much of an edge......AT ALL!!!! And the people that are stacking arent stacking because they are playing phil ivey caliber poker but its just because they are getting lucky, and getting in super easy spots to coolering people.

Any advice or thoughts on anything would be greatly appreciated!!!!!
The deep run, no cash dilemma Quote
09-08-2016 , 12:38 PM
Are we talking about a turbo format? In that case yeah, running good is essential. In other cases just playing solid poker is enough against a drooler field and you don't need to run a bunch of fancy moves.
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09-08-2016 , 12:52 PM
OP: Statistically significant sample size > 5.
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09-08-2016 , 01:40 PM
Whats the tournament structure?
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09-08-2016 , 02:17 PM
@Chany and SteamRolla....starting stack of 15k, 20minute blinds

and @Beachman42 i realize its a small sample, but the point i was trying to make is that i am playing with absolute ******s and i cant even cash....like i used to be one of those die hard players that always emphasized that this stupid game is a game of skill....but week after week i see the same stupid people stacking people off and getting ****in dream situations
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09-08-2016 , 03:28 PM
Sounds like youre just getting a bad run of cards combined with late stage play. Your early play seems to offer lots of success. Dig into your late stage strategy and find some holes to plug. There has to be something you can improve on: Table Image, Position Squeezes etc. really dig deep and find what you can improve on.

Keep at it, youll get your hit.
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09-08-2016 , 03:50 PM
sounds like youre just bad

take this thread to bbv
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09-08-2016 , 04:20 PM
@SteamR0LLA....im trying to dig into my late stage strategy, but honestly i dont think i can improve on anything... my knock outs are as follows:

me K-J vs K-Q...i ended up having like 10bbs
me K-Q vs KJ...got my money in good and got sucked out on, i had about 10bb and got called by a player with the same stack
me 8-6 in the big blind, limped pot...flop 2 pair guy flops set all in on the flop
me A-K vs j-9 and ??...i had 8 big blinds and got snapped off by 2 huge stacks
me a-8 vs aq....had 5 big blinds and i was waiting for ever for an ace, or king high... or a pair but wasnt getting ****

its like every time i run deep i just magically get card dead. I can usually get a hand or two, or make a few plays in the earlier stages but can never get any sorta momentum going.....

its like i kinda think im playing to tight(towards the later levels when my stack is small)....but in all actuality im not getting **** for cards at the later levels and than im am just forced to wait for any ace or king high or any pair
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09-08-2016 , 04:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cicakman
sounds like youre just bad

take this thread to bbv
whats bbv?
The deep run, no cash dilemma Quote
09-08-2016 , 04:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fourdeucepoker
whats bbv?
Beats, Brags, and Variance
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...rags-variance/
The deep run, no cash dilemma Quote
09-08-2016 , 04:38 PM
well i kinda do want input or advice or stratgy or something
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09-08-2016 , 04:58 PM
In all honesty, you've only played the tournament 5 times. You should not expect to cash over this sample. If you do, then that would mean you're expecting to be ITM 20% of the time, which is unreasonable for what seems to be a weekly turbo where variance is on the higher side (20min blinds barely gets you through 2 orbits at many live tables + more importantly we haven't visited what blind structure look like).

My advice is:
1) To keep playing them if you find that the field is soft.
2) Do not stoop down to the level of your opponents and play the trash you see them turn over.
3) Bet large with your value hands

GL
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09-08-2016 , 05:10 PM
Yeah im expecting to cash %50 of the time and i havent cashed once....thats just how bad these people are...

like what percentages of the time do good players expect to cash in such tourneys???

Its just like the most i play this stupid tourney the more im realizing this game is less skill and more luck...its discouraging

The blinds structure is :
25-50
50-100
75-150
100-200
150-300 w/25 ante
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09-08-2016 , 06:49 PM
OP, amongst all the poker "wisdoms" that one can find in different books, here are a few that apply well in this situation:
- "Almost every poker player thinks he's better than he actually is". And that includes you and me! I'm not saying you're as bad as the players you're describing, but you're probably still not as good as you think you are. It's just human nature! Expecting to cash 50% of the time in a turbo MTT really is a little too ambitious (even if insane numbers can be achieved in such fields, but 50% is really insane).
- "Short-term, poker is about luck - Long-term, poker is about skill". Let's take an example where you put your stack in 3 times in a row, each time as a huge 70/30 favorite. That's already a dream scenario in a turbo tournament! Well, you already have a 65% chance of being out of the tournament! Knowing that to get ITM and have an average stack, you need to triple your stack appr. 3 times, just think about that for a moment!... Short-term, there's nothing you can do in poker to beat variance. Skill gives you the long term edge! And in the world of MTTs, this long term is reaaally long term. I mean, really really really!... A few lives of multi-tabling are not enough for example for huge online MTT fields.
- "Poker is a game of small edges". Just because you are way better than your opponent does not mean you will systematically crush him. It's not a tennis match or a marathon. Maybe your edge gives you a few percents here or there, but that's it.

In general, you should try to look for ways to make the best out of the situation and exploit the other players' mistakes.
In my experience, playing solid, abc TAG poker (like you do) is a good way to go in these fields. But maybe you need to work on your short stack game? (as being short is going to happen in these tournaments, one way or another) Maybe you need to see when these guys start to tighten up? Or which guys do and which don't? Dunno, but do not hope for 50% cashes, stay focused, respect your enemy and find the best ways to exploit his weaknesses!
The deep run, no cash dilemma Quote
09-08-2016 , 10:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by scheier
OP, amongst all the poker "wisdoms" that one can find in different books, here are a few that apply well in this situation:
- "Almost every poker player thinks he's better than he actually is". And that includes you and me! I'm not saying you're as bad as the players you're describing, but you're probably still not as good as you think you are. It's just human nature! Expecting to cash 50% of the time in a turbo MTT really is a little too ambitious (even if insane numbers can be achieved in such fields, but 50% is really insane).
- "Short-term, poker is about luck - Long-term, poker is about skill". Let's take an example where you put your stack in 3 times in a row, each time as a huge 70/30 favorite. That's already a dream scenario in a turbo tournament! Well, you already have a 65% chance of being out of the tournament! Knowing that to get ITM and have an average stack, you need to triple your stack appr. 3 times, just think about that for a moment!... Short-term, there's nothing you can do in poker to beat variance. Skill gives you the long term edge! And in the world of MTTs, this long term is reaaally long term. I mean, really really really!... A few lives of multi-tabling are not enough for example for huge online MTT fields.
- "Poker is a game of small edges". Just because you are way better than your opponent does not mean you will systematically crush him. It's not a tennis match or a marathon. Maybe your edge gives you a few percents here or there, but that's it.

In general, you should try to look for ways to make the best out of the situation and exploit the other players' mistakes.
In my experience, playing solid, abc TAG poker (like you do) is a good way to go in these fields. But maybe you need to work on your short stack game? (as being short is going to happen in these tournaments, one way or another) Maybe you need to see when these guys start to tighten up? Or which guys do and which don't? Dunno, but do not hope for 50% cashes, stay focused, respect your enemy and find the best ways to exploit his weaknesses!
Thanks for the write up man!!!! thats sorta what I was looking for when i posted the. As for exploitation lol trust me I am always looking to exploit these stupid people as much as I can...i have 2 examples, in just this weeks.

1.in one of the earlier stages i threw in an big chip and didnt announce raise and when someone threw in the exact amount of the big blind i said "i raised"...they told me i didnt raise cause i didnt announce it, than this other idiot at the goes ahead and raises like 5 times the big blind... after knowing that i tried to raise....i three bet him light, he called. I had ace king and completely missed the flopped but bet it like i had aces or kings....he was just sitting there for FOREVER wondering what to do and i say what do you have 9s or 10s....he waits 2 more minutes and folds and shows 99.

2. im under the gun with ace king...and im sitting there thinking what to do....i took a minute or 2 and than this ****** that was raising everyhand acted out of turn and raised....know he didnt have anything i choose to just call so his raise would stand, than i planned to either 3 bet the **** out of it or shove....but than someone else 3 bets all in...now this guy was at my table for 2hrs and didnt even play a hand....so it was an easy fold...dude turned over aces.

so how often should i expect to cash? what percentage do "the pros" cash?
The deep run, no cash dilemma Quote
09-09-2016 , 02:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fourdeucepoker
1.in one of the earlier stages i threw in an big chip and didnt announce raise and when someone threw in the exact amount of the big blind i said "i raised"...they told me i didnt raise cause i didnt announce it, than this other idiot at the goes ahead and raises like 5 times the big blind... after knowing that i tried to raise....i three bet him light, he called. I had ace king and completely missed the flopped but bet it like i had aces or kings....he was just sitting there for FOREVER wondering what to do and i say what do you have 9s or 10s....he waits 2 more minutes and folds and shows 99.

2. im under the gun with ace king...and im sitting there thinking what to do....i took a minute or 2 and than this ****** that was raising everyhand acted out of turn and raised....know he didnt have anything i choose to just call so his raise would stand, than i planned to either 3 bet the **** out of it or shove....but than someone else 3 bets all in...now this guy was at my table for 2hrs and didnt even play a hand....so it was an easy fold...dude turned over aces.

so how often should i expect to cash? what percentage do "the pros" cash?
jesus, drop the aggression. you won't win a damn thing live without a cool calm mind.
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09-09-2016 , 12:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldsilver
jesus, drop the aggression. you won't win a damn thing live without a cool calm mind.
You are being way too kind to an angle shooting douchebag.

Quote:
i threw in an big chip and didnt announce raise and when someone threw in the exact amount of the big blind i said "i raised"...they told me i didnt raise cause i didnt announce it, than this other idiot at the goes ahead and raises like 5 times the big blind... after knowing that i tried to raise....
The deep run, no cash dilemma Quote
09-09-2016 , 01:01 PM
If 10% of field gets paid, the best player in the field probably cash maybe like 20% or less. Also, be realistic, it seems like u are good enough for this field but u probably hv lots of rooms for improvements. U seem to be overrating ur skill level, but yes that's most poker players do. I wouldn't call players who suck at poker complete idiots. Some ppl just play this game as a hobby not for money. the reason why the pros make monies is becoz of the rec players.

Last edited by pkratitsbest; 09-09-2016 at 01:07 PM.
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09-09-2016 , 01:06 PM
Also, work on ur push/fold game since the structure is ****. Memorising push/fold charts is minimum. It would be better to DL icmizer or HRC to run simulations for ft spots or close to bubble spots
The deep run, no cash dilemma Quote
09-09-2016 , 02:26 PM
You can't tell strangers on the Internet that some players were being idiots. You haven't shown enough credibility for us to know that you're not an idiot... But the lack of understanding of the basic rules of live play (i.e. One big chip with no verbal indication is a call) kinda gives us an idea.

Just relax. If you're going to play for any length of time you're going to have to develop a much higher tolerance to seeing things you don't like. Also you haven't even scratched the surface of your variance yet.

Last edited by ptf31; 09-09-2016 at 02:27 PM. Reason: Typo
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09-09-2016 , 04:57 PM
why are you guys answering this clown seriously?
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09-10-2016 , 04:17 PM
This thread is hilarious.

Jason Mercier can go a dozen or so tournaments without a cash and this clown expects a 50% cash rate.

I agree with oldsilver.

Before you touch anything technical on the game of poker, work on your mindset.
The deep run, no cash dilemma Quote
09-14-2016 , 03:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ptf31
You can't tell strangers on the Internet that some players were being idiots. You haven't shown enough credibility for us to know that you're not an idiot... But the lack of understanding of the basic rules of live play (i.e. One big chip with no verbal indication is a call) kinda gives us an idea.

Just relax. If you're going to play for any length of time you're going to have to develop a much higher tolerance to seeing things you don't like. Also you haven't even scratched the surface of your variance yet.
i was well aware that a big chip just signifies a call unless announced....it was a mistake....i just made it public by announcing it....it was early in the tourney and the table was very chatty and friendly.
And just this week my tolerance is getting very high for seeing the unexpected...but i dont want to bore you guys with my bad beat stories......ESPECIALLY because i have no credibility here lol
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09-14-2016 , 03:41 PM
This week i lose 88 vs A9 on a board of K-K-4-Q-Q...looking at it on the screen doesnt even begin to showcase how brutal of a beat it is....even though i realize i am only flipping to begin with...just seeing it ran out, its pretty unbelievable. Seeing that flop i though i was golden.

I was on the button, every one folded, i made it 4x bb, small blind goes on in for 11k, i had 15k and called. ....cant do anything, i guess but wait til next week
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09-14-2016 , 03:46 PM
@ oldsilver......Dont worry i am very very calm at the table

and @Beachman42....ive never been called an angleshooter before....but i will for sure take that as a compliment. Poker is a dirty nasty ****ty game...Im not there to make friends, Im there to take as much money from these people as possible!
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