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deep in 16.50 turbo, 66 in sb deep in 16.50 turbo, 66 in sb

10-08-2009 , 07:26 PM
ok so tell me if my thinking is justified...

if i shove, i'm risking 19k to win 1700. so i didn't want to do that
obviously my hand is too good to fold blind vs blind, so i called
when villain shoves, there's now 3k in the pot + his hand range includes a lot of hands he's just playing scared with i have dominated, like ace rag, and 22 - 55, and even if he doesn't have one of these hands, the vast majority of the time he has 2 overcards that i'm a small favorite over and considering how top heavy this tourney is, it's not too bad of a gamble.

all good / makes sense? and if not i'd love to hear criticism. if people are going to say "just shove" please explain why it is better than this line due to the reasons above. thanks in advance

Poker Stars $15.00+$1.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t350/t700 Blinds + t85 - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (SB): t19098 M = 11.04
BB: t19517 M = 11.28
UTG: t16010 M = 9.25
UTG+1: t17656 M = 10.21
MP1: t15550 M = 8.99
MP2: t12910 M = 7.46
CO: t922 M = 0.53
BTN: t7135 M = 4.12

Pre Flop: (t1730) Hero is SB with 6 6
6 folds, Hero calls t350, BB raises to t19432 all in, Hero calls t18313 all in
deep in 16.50 turbo, 66 in sb Quote
10-08-2009 , 07:27 PM
ur not willing to shove, but ur willing to call a shove, ducy this is bad?

open shove. kthxbye.
deep in 16.50 turbo, 66 in sb Quote
10-08-2009 , 07:51 PM
With your reads, raise calling>open shoving>limp calling.

EDIT: to elaborate, his restealing range is fairly similar when you limp as to when you open to like 2k or whatever, but limping gives him the opportunity to check hands that almost always have good equity vs you and its going to be tough to play a pot oop with a hand like 66. The reason why r/c>open shoving is because he will resteal with smaller pairs and stuff like A5s that you crush whereas if you open shove he may fold these hands.

Last edited by mullen; 10-08-2009 at 07:57 PM.
deep in 16.50 turbo, 66 in sb Quote
10-09-2009 , 06:15 AM
66 is too strong to shove vs the BB
limp/shove is risking a check and you cant continue if BB bets on 3 over boards -> loses value
limp/call a shove is as bad as limp/shove for the same reasons

imo its bet/call since you dont give him a free flop with ~J8 or something and we call a shove since 66 is good here very often. even better if we raise his blind alot and he will shove with any A and 22-55
deep in 16.50 turbo, 66 in sb Quote
10-09-2009 , 11:33 AM
Yea I don't really like your thought process but your line isn't horrible at all.

Why exactly do you not want to open shove 66 here? I personally wouldn't either, but it is completely unexploitably +EV even if you showed him your cards before doing it. Also, what was your planning if he raised or shoved over your limp? Not wanting to shove, but willing to limp/call a shove seems somewhat backwards, since you're basically just removing all of your fold equity from the equation; the only way you can win the hand now is if you win the race. 66 is also very vulnerable, because even if he's shoving J7o, it's a flip.

Raise/calling is probably the standard line, since most villains will reshove light enough blind vs. blind that you'll be way ahead of their range + after you raise you'll be getting a decent overlay in pot odds.

I do not agree with furo that limp/shoving is bad at all, it is probably close to optimal vs. a lot of villain with these stacks. 66 is probably strong enough that I would still raise/call, but with a lower pair that is difficult to call a shove with, I'd definitely opt to limp with intentions of shoving over a raise. Having him check isn't a bad thing since you get a free flop to hit a set with pretty immense implied odds, and even if 3 overs come, we're still going to have the best hand the majority of the time
deep in 16.50 turbo, 66 in sb Quote
10-09-2009 , 11:50 AM
Raise/call is best, and I'd call now.
deep in 16.50 turbo, 66 in sb Quote
10-09-2009 , 12:17 PM
if we limp and villian is semi intelligent they open shove. If we open shove it adds FE to our hand, while if we raise and call a shove we are giving villian FE (although we are never folding) and we are losing our own FE (they will fold alot of hands we flip vs when we open shove vs when they shove vs us). Open shove is unexploitable and optimal (a flip is really bad compared to a probable flip and a probable chance of taking down the pot right there). I would rather shove into a villian with a good chance to gain 10% of my stack for free and when im called taking the +EV flip, then calling a shove knowing that my only chance of gaining chips is taking this high variance flip (it is high variance since we are the caller, ducy?).

just my .02.


Shoving > Calling a shove (in most short stacked aipf spots such as this), i cant show the math to it, but it is preety obv that is has lowered variance and more cev.
deep in 16.50 turbo, 66 in sb Quote
10-09-2009 , 12:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Protential
if we limp and villian is semi intelligent they open shove. If we open shove it adds FE to our hand, while if we raise and call a shove we are giving villian FE (although we are never folding) and we are losing our own FE (they will fold alot of hands we flip vs when we open shove vs when they shove vs us). Open shove is unexploitable and optimal (a flip is really bad compared to a probable flip and a probable chance of taking down the pot right there). I would rather shove into a villian with a good chance to gain 10% of my stack for free and when im called taking the +EV flip, then calling a shove knowing that my only chance of gaining chips is taking this high variance flip (it is high variance since we are the caller, ducy?).

just my .02.


Shoving > Calling a shove (in most short stacked aipf spots such as this), i cant show the math to it, but it is preety obv that is has lowered variance and more cev.
^That doesn't make any sense, DUCY?

Also, I think whether open shoving is optimal is really arguable and will be dependent on ranges. I feel like it won't be optimal, though, because we should be pretty far ahead of the villain's reshipping range and although open-shoving is def lower variance because it folds out more hands that we flip with, it also folds out hands we dominate that would reship otherwise. Not to mention we are on the good side of the flip, so there's going to be a lot of value in inducing a shove vs. a lot of villains.
deep in 16.50 turbo, 66 in sb Quote
10-09-2009 , 12:25 PM
i think raise/call is best vs a random in this spot because we open up his range. where as if we shove this deep we only get called by better.

if villian is good and you know he raises SB limpers a lot on BB I don't mind a limp/shove.
deep in 16.50 turbo, 66 in sb Quote
10-09-2009 , 12:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vekked
^That doesn't make any sense, DUCY?

Also, I think whether open shoving is optimal is really arguable and will be dependent on ranges. I feel like it won't be optimal, though, because we should be pretty far ahead of the villain's reshipping range and although open-shoving is def lower variance because it folds out more hands that we flip with, it also folds out hands we dominate that would reship otherwise. Not to mention we are on the good side of the flip, so there's going to be a lot of value in inducing a shove vs. a lot of villains.
Not optimal, but it is +EV (to about the same degree Cev wise) and lower variance (better $ev wise)? watttttttttttttt? And we are hugely ahead of their range.... (56% equity vs their range is not hugely ahead, especially considering we arnt the aggressor)? wat? im raise calling in a spot like this with upper region of my range (88-JJ AJ+), with the middle region of my range im just making an optimal shove. This lowers variance and raises equity in the hand (unless villian is a good reg and knows im doing this). With my top 3 bad boys, i can do just about anything with them, including open shove.
deep in 16.50 turbo, 66 in sb Quote
10-09-2009 , 12:56 PM
sick high variance trap!
deep in 16.50 turbo, 66 in sb Quote
10-09-2009 , 01:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by areaman
sick high variance trap!
sick high variance tourney!
deep in 16.50 turbo, 66 in sb Quote
10-09-2009 , 01:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Protential
Not optimal, but it is +EV (to about the same degree Cev wise) and lower variance (better $ev wise)? watttttttttttttt? And we are hugely ahead of their range.... (56% equity vs their range is not hugely ahead, especially considering we arnt the aggressor)? wat? im raise calling in a spot like this with upper region of my range (88-JJ AJ+), with the middle region of my range im just making an optimal shove. This lowers variance and raises equity in the hand (unless villian is a good reg and knows im doing this). With my top 3 bad boys, i can do just about anything with them, including open shove.
I don't understand all of the question marks, but...

56% equity isn't very far ahead if there's like no overlay but we'll be getting like 10% or more equity than we'll need to breakeven on the call after we raise anyways. Also, I completley agree that the middle region of your hands are probably optimal to open shove, but I guess what I consider to be the middle of my range is lower. I'd probably shove 22-44, 55 is close, and 66 is near the bottom of my raise/calling range. I think you're losing a ton of value if you're open shipping 77 this deep BvB. Also, if we're not close to the final table, I'm not really looking to lower my variance or consider $EV yet.
deep in 16.50 turbo, 66 in sb Quote
10-09-2009 , 01:05 PM
sounds extreme...

EXTREME VARIANCE!!!!!!11111

note: violently shake your head while reading this post.
deep in 16.50 turbo, 66 in sb Quote
10-09-2009 , 01:22 PM
guys, this is a fairly simple maths spot assuming we don't get flatted too often so why don't you guys give me a calling raise for him when we openshove and a reshipping range when we raise/call (I think r/c >>>> l/c because it has all the advantages and none of the downsides IMO).

i think we can pretty much ignore ICM here unless it turns out to be really close...
deep in 16.50 turbo, 66 in sb Quote
10-09-2009 , 01:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Derbos
guys, this is a fairly simple maths spot assuming we don't get flatted too often so why don't you guys give me a calling raise for him when we openshove and a reshipping range when we raise/call (I think r/c >>>> l/c because it has all the advantages and none of the downsides IMO).

i think we can pretty much ignore ICM here unless it turns out to be really close...
It's hard to really judge r/c vs. l/c because with limping your EV is mostly from limp/shoving and hitting a set when it's checked, not from the l/c itself.

As for ranges, probs need OP on this one, don't know the villain tendencies at all.
deep in 16.50 turbo, 66 in sb Quote
10-09-2009 , 01:35 PM
ok, but here's the thing. say the plan is to raise / call a shove. the problem is that villain can just flat a lot of hands. and then he can play better than me on the flop, both because he has position and because my hand plays so poorly on most flops.

people have said that limping is bad because it gives villain a chance to see a flop for free with bad hands, well i'm ok with that because with 66 i want to keep the pot small anyway and play fit or fold because of how vulnerable my hand is, and also because i do have great implied odds.

the way i see it, the problem with open shoving is that it puts our stack at risk for very little reward. an extra 1700 chips isn't really significant, whereas getting called is really bad.

so since raising and shoving are problematic, that brings us to limping. if villain raises, i probably shove. if villain shoves, i probably call. yes i don't have FE, but that's just the situation. had i shoved i'd have had FE against hands like J7 os, but it was to win 1700 chip pot and doing poorly vs. villain's calling range. now, the pot's a little bigger / more worth fighting over, and villain's range is wider. i still think it's close, i'd feel a lot better if i had 77 or 88, but i mean can't just limp fold 66 bvb and i do think a huge overshove by villain will often be A-x where x is lower than 6, or a lower pp.

so that's my case. thoughts?
deep in 16.50 turbo, 66 in sb Quote
10-09-2009 , 01:50 PM
You're not doing that bad against a fairly loose calling range


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.865% 42.25% 00.61% 603391944 8742498.00 { 66 }
Hand 1: 57.135% 56.52% 00.61% 807184596 8742498.00 { 55+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }

He really won't be flatting too wide anyway, but it's not like open shoving is bad, it's definitely good.
deep in 16.50 turbo, 66 in sb Quote
10-09-2009 , 01:50 PM
Pretty solid thought process. Getting flatted here does def suck, but I don't think it happens a ton with these effective stacks. If it does happen you might have to poker it up a bit post flop since you do have a pair already and he won't hit a lot. If you have a read that he's fairly loose/passive pre-flop then limping is probably a lot better. If he's aggressive pre-flop, raise/calling is probably better. As played it's def a call. I don't think that you should think of shoving being bad because of the bad risk to reward so much as you lose a lot of value with a hand that you can probably squeeze more value out of taking other lines.
deep in 16.50 turbo, 66 in sb Quote
10-09-2009 , 01:58 PM
I would just open shove as getting flatted is a disaster. As played, of course you call his shove.

The reason the limp is awful, is you can't count on an unknown to raise light at all with these stacks. If guy was full of rage and promised to raise if you ever limped your small blind again, then sure limp/shove/call or whatever.
deep in 16.50 turbo, 66 in sb Quote
10-09-2009 , 02:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scary_Tiger
I would just open shove as getting flatted is a disaster. As played, of course you call his shove.

The reason the limp is awful, is you can't count on an unknown to raise light at all with these stacks. If guy was full of rage and promised to raise if you ever limped your small blind again, then sure limp/shove/call or whatever.
Not sure that getting flatted is that big of a disaster, it's borderline. Also, an unknown doesn't even have to raise that light for it to be +EV to limp/shove here. If we have any FE ever (which we probably do), it'll be fine I think.
deep in 16.50 turbo, 66 in sb Quote

      
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