crazy 18man ICM spot i never knew about
01-21-2013
, 05:25 PM
Quote:
I've thoughts more about this
Short stacks:
after its folded to BTN, reg or not, he almost always folds too much, BB reg usually plays correctly. Point is , if they get it in too much after we fold, compared to after we don't fold, then we should open fold more. Doesn't happen. I think when players play so much similarly as short stacks in this situation then it becomes easier to analyse the moves between bigstacks, treating the short stacks as relative constants, and the bigstacks as variables.
I think in todays games we should limp/call KK+ , shove 88--QQ, AK,AQ and raise/x nothing. This is because nobody ever, EVER traps a cutoff limp in this situation, so people are correctly shipping in the face when they do.
wrt strong hands + hands too weak to jam for balance:
limp/call, limp/fold, raise/call, raise fold
People might already be adjusting between two dynamics of limp/x and raise/x, it should be balanced heavily with monsters at the moment (say 80% x/call, 20% x/fold against an extremely high restealing range).
This will be hard to deal with for a while. But in a few years people will be adjusting MUCH quicker, and as such exploiting too much trapping by giving less action, and too much watermeloning with shoving 8k.
That said, in the long run the optimal game theory play is the limp/x. We get to play as many non-nut hands as possible (for one point, the bigstack is getting an ever so slightly worse price to put you all-in) , the bottom line is we save 400 chips every time we x/fold. In every situation I am making the assumption (correct me if you disagree) that the short stacks will treat your limp and raise almost the same.
Of course you could then occasionally revert to raise/x and profit big on bigstack adjusting badly to an infrequent play, but I am making the assumption everyone is LIGHTNING adjusters in a few years.
I think most of the time hero (...I mean almost all regs) in this hand currently loses a lot of money by being heavily inbalanced towards A2o stuff, justifying raise/fold by thinking it's grinding down the shortstacks -- chipleader gonna get that done anyway.
Short stacks:
after its folded to BTN, reg or not, he almost always folds too much, BB reg usually plays correctly. Point is , if they get it in too much after we fold, compared to after we don't fold, then we should open fold more. Doesn't happen. I think when players play so much similarly as short stacks in this situation then it becomes easier to analyse the moves between bigstacks, treating the short stacks as relative constants, and the bigstacks as variables.
I think in todays games we should limp/call KK+ , shove 88--QQ, AK,AQ and raise/x nothing. This is because nobody ever, EVER traps a cutoff limp in this situation, so people are correctly shipping in the face when they do.
wrt strong hands + hands too weak to jam for balance:
limp/call, limp/fold, raise/call, raise fold
People might already be adjusting between two dynamics of limp/x and raise/x, it should be balanced heavily with monsters at the moment (say 80% x/call, 20% x/fold against an extremely high restealing range).
This will be hard to deal with for a while. But in a few years people will be adjusting MUCH quicker, and as such exploiting too much trapping by giving less action, and too much watermeloning with shoving 8k.
That said, in the long run the optimal game theory play is the limp/x. We get to play as many non-nut hands as possible (for one point, the bigstack is getting an ever so slightly worse price to put you all-in) , the bottom line is we save 400 chips every time we x/fold. In every situation I am making the assumption (correct me if you disagree) that the short stacks will treat your limp and raise almost the same.
Of course you could then occasionally revert to raise/x and profit big on bigstack adjusting badly to an infrequent play, but I am making the assumption everyone is LIGHTNING adjusters in a few years.
I think most of the time hero (...I mean almost all regs) in this hand currently loses a lot of money by being heavily inbalanced towards A2o stuff, justifying raise/fold by thinking it's grinding down the shortstacks -- chipleader gonna get that done anyway.
01-21-2013
, 11:50 PM
