Contemplating a jam over two shortstack all ins with +20BB holding AQ OTB in a soft ft - MTT Poker Strategy

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Contemplating a jam over two shortstack all ins with +20BB holding AQ OTB in a soft ft

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03-01-2012 , 05:05 AM

Finnera

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 1,621

HEM did not store this HH for some reason, so bare with me here.

I debated this with my poker buddies, so would need thoughts on it.

Tourney is a 20 rebuy at Boss. 30+ runners. Top 5 paid. 1st gets ~800e and 5th ~150e.

9 runners left, FT just started. Blinds 400/800 with antes. Average is like 25k stack. Table is soft and a bit nutty, since e.g. chipleader just open shoved 45bb's from utg

So, situation unravels as follows.

~8k shortstack shoves from UTG+2, HJ with same sized stack comes along. Hero is OTB with 20k stack holding AQo. Both blinds have us covered. SB has 30k and BB has 40k.

Do we snap it over here or muck it?

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03-01-2012 , 06:50 AM

MasterJ009

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 1,386

You say table is soft and nutty, so that means ending itm is probably a big deal for these players.
I put calling range for shortie who calls pretty tight. And I guess we are racing at best.
I do believe you can wait for a better spot, especially when you feel you have an edge over the rest of the table. You can work your way around with still 22BB left and blinds that just passed.
It does suck you have biggies to your left!

Still pretty close though.

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03-01-2012 , 07:04 AM

gregz41

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 8,609

99 AQs

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03-01-2012 , 10:14 AM

Bullitos

old hand

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 1,376

Given that you'll still have 12k left if you lose and otherwise set yourself up for a top spot if you win, I'd call.

I wouldn't worry too much about the big stacks, you block an A and a Q, and there's a good chance 2 shortie's also block decent cards, so chances are really low either SB or BB have anything.

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03-01-2012 , 12:54 PM

Elephants_pride

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 5,043

Quote:

Originally Posted by gregz41

99 AQs

TT AK
(since the table is nitty and soft)

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.014% 30.57% 01.44% 16550352720 780307054.00 { 77+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+ }
Hand 1: 38.717% 37.14% 01.58% 20103287064 855801430.00 { 88+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 29.268% 28.71% 00.56% 15540611940 303456760.00 { 99 }

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03-01-2012 , 01:54 PM

mwlucian

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 164

I probably fold here. 1st player could be weak, second player has an actual hand.

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03-01-2012 , 02:07 PM

Rocketmist

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 264

uhmmm, lol, NEVER, this is like AK+, QQ+, maybe jacks-tens if you saw this before. Id bet $ this is polarized to AK if you didnt see it before tho.

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